Betting Theory

I know I’m singing the same old tune again but I’m a firm believer in the efficiency of the Betfair exchange markets in predicting the true chance of a particular event occurring.

In fact I’m such a believer that analysis of those markets is the foundation stone on which I base all my betting activities.

But there are occasions when the markets get it badly wrong.

At the extreme ends of the markets – and particularly in running – markets  lose their efficiency and can become horribly skewed.

Prices …

Even after spending countless hours earlier in the week looking at the antepost markets for Newbury's meeting on Saturday, I refuse to be dejected by the news that the weather has claimed it and we have lost what looked like a fantastic meeting. What can you do?

Rather than sit here  dejected I thought I'd reproduce an article I wrote last week for Daily Punt, which hopefully demonstrates just powerful it can be to ask for a price.

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You Have to Haggle

A successful punter sho…

My sincere apologies for taking so long to re- appear with Part 2 of this post. I’ve been battling manfully with what I was convinced was double pneumonia but Mrs MYBP assures me was man flu.  It was touch and go for a while but I’ve got through the worst of it and am returning to some kind of form.

As a result I haven’t felt like doing much of anything let alone turning my mind to the myriad mysteries of staking. I’ve mostly been a level stakes man throughout my betting career and make no claims…

Just a short post today, dear readers, but an important one I hope.

I got to thinking yesterday about the power of compounding and it's application to our staking.

If the strike rate of a method is high enough to allow it, I'm a big fan of percentage staking plans as a means of leveraging returns.

My thoughts turned to this now in particular because of a results analysis I've been carrying out.

I won't mention names or methods (mainly because I think you will be hearing all about this person in the …

It's fun to have an interest bet sometimes, isn't it?

You know the type - a sneaky fiver to liven up an otherwise boring televised football match, a crafty tenner on a horse when you slide in as you're passing the bookies, another tenner when you're sat bored by the pc and spot a tennis match between two players you've never heard of and whose names you can't pronounce.

It doesn't do any harm, does it? Livens up the odd half hour.

I hope you don't really believe that.

Those fivers and tenners repres…

Firstly today, John mac reflects on the performance of his selections over the weekend:

'When I place a bet it is always in the belief that I had found an opportunity to make some money. Obviously, plenty will fail to work out. However, I find it good practice to go back over the bet and try to understand where I got it wrong and if I could or maybe should have avoided backing the selection altogether.

Let’s start with SO YOU THINK.

Personally, I have no problem with this bet as he handled the dirt…

Welcome again, one and all.

As usual, it’s been a little longer than intended since I last posted.

I’ve been running around like a headless chicken for the last couple of weeks  preparing The Morning Value Service for the launch which finally happened last week. Now that’s up and running I have a little more time to get back to the day to day things, like posting on here and finding some  winners!

 

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Kicking things off today I thought I’d take a look at how important it is to…

Welcome dear readers

A very happy New Year to you all and I hope you had a relaxing, refreshing Christmas. Mine was pleasant if a little tainted by the residual shock caused by a betting 'kick in the stomach' I received on the Saturday before. More of that later - suffice to say one of the most careless, complacent pieces of jockeyship I have seen in a long time cost me several thousand pounds in winnings and my peace of mind for a week or two.

Sincere apologies again for the unacceptable delay be…

Hello dear readers,

Firstly, let me offer my sincere apologies for neglecting you this week. I have been literally snowed under with my betting activites and simply haven't managed to carve out the time to lavish you with the attention you deserve in the form of an earlier post. I intend to put that right today with a really useful multi part post that I hope you will all enjoy (and find instructive with any luck). First up on that front I thought i'd give a mention for an old but good technique …