Betting Theory

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I've been meaning to write this post for a while. After all, the site is called Make Your Betting Pay so there really should be a post outlining the main ways in which it can be done!

When it's boiled down to its essence, there are just 4 ways in which you can make money from betting.

They are:

Matched Betting

Most people have done a bit of this. It's done by using bookmaker bonuses and the betting exchanges to create no lose bets. the mechanics…

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Undoubtedly there are some bad, even criminal, tipsters out there.

We’ve all been stung by some chancer promising the earth and delivering nothing. Worse even, delivering nothing in exchange for a hefty fee.

I’ve been there, more than once if I’m honest.

They are out there and need to be avoided at all costs.

But I really don’t understand why the vast majority of good tipsters get tarred with the same brush.

Ever employed a plumber who did a shoddy…

Photo by CrowN on Unsplash

 

I'm super chuffed that  I posted the early season trainer angles on Monday!

I couldn't have chosen a better day to point out the merits of the 'Spring Training Masters' as their performance since has shown: Roger Charlton: From 2 runners -  a winner at 20/1 and a 3rd at 15/2 Ralph Beckett: No runners as yet. Alan King:  1 runner -  3rd at 16/1 I love it when a plan comes together!

On to today: The Gamblers Fallacy

Here's a scenario:

You've just watched me flip …

If you can’t convert odds into the probabilities they imply, you are going to struggle in the long term to make money from your betting. How can you assess value if you don’t first know the probabilities the betting market is indicating?

It’s not a difficult thing to do and with a little practice you will be able to do it automatically every time you look at a betting market.

First we’ll look at conversion of fractional odds to probabilities as those are still the predominant type used in the UK.

 …

Today, we have a guest post from Paul Whelan of Skybluekangaroo

 

You Need These Three Things To Be A Professional Gambler

Professional gambler. Pro punter. Full-time bettor.

What images do these words bring about in your mind’s eye?

Is it the cool, calculating card shark, sat at the poker table in some Las Vegas casino (Phil Ivey, perhaps?) taking down pot after pot from the gullible high-rollers.

Or do you imagine the shrewd ‘face’ at the race course, stepping out from the crowd in the betting rin…

Today we have the first article from a new contributor, Nick Hardman. Nick will be bringing us a punters diary feature in the coming weeks but, today, he's gone back to basics with Part 1 of an in depth look at one of the most key aspects of successful punting - mindset.

Welcome Nick and over to you!

 

THE KEY TO SUCCESSFUL BETTING

PART 1 – A successful punters mentality

It is estimated that only about 1% of all punters make consistent, long term profits. Why do you think this is? Are they expert for…

 

As racing and betting enthusiasts we are regularly bombarded with pitches for the latest wonder system/tipster/method. Among those pitches will be a mixture of good and bad - some that are absolute 'must haves'.... and some that are outright scams.

The only real way we can assess whether something is any good, is by a detailed analysis of past results (assuming of course that the past results claimed can be verified - we should never consider buying anything that doesn't have a checkable, verifi…

Losing runs are a fact of betting life that you will have to come to terms with if you ever hope to turn a profit.

We've all been there - you've just placed your 15th consecutive losing bet, doubts are creeping in, you have a barely suppressed sense of panic and the devil on your shoulder is telling you to go in heavy on a short priced "certainty" to get yourself back out of trouble.

You will go mad or, even worse, go broke unless you develop some strategies for coping with those emotions.

When I f…

A couple of things today....

Firstly, I wrote this article sometime ago now for the Daily Punt website but I've never managed to put it up on Make Your Betting Pay before now.

It's well worth a read - a very simple way to improve your punting profits!

 

You Have to Haggle

A successful punter should always be looking for ways to improve his margins – in the same way that a successful business man will always be looking for ways to cut his overhead and improve his bottom line.

The advent of betting exch…

Today, we have a post from John Mac, professional gambler and occasional betting blogger. Over to John:

"Following stables which suddenly strike form can be a useful tool in any punters armoury. However, the window of opportunity is often a short one and very quickly backers and layers ensure that the value is  squeezed out of following them blindly.

Take yesterday as an example for the Mark Johnstone yard. He sent out 14 UK runners, 4 off which obliged, 1 @  2/1 and 3 @ 8/1.

It would have been a g…