UFC on ESPN+ 8, 27th April 2019, Fort Lauderdale Florida

This is a lack lustre card with little star power outside the main event. Nonetheless, there are a few opportunities and it’s going to be a busy evening from a betting view point. Let’s get straight to it.

I’m not a huge fan of favourite backing in MMA because bookmakers tend to price them too short. However, there are occasions when the value does lie with the favourite – and opportunities to bet the value AND the most likely winner have to be viewed as gilt edged.

Alex Oliveira v Mike Perry

A few fights ago I viewed Mike Perry as an exciting prospect with plenty of upside.

However, he’s gone 1-3 in his last 4 and seems unable to adapt his bum rushing, kamikaze style even when it’s patently not working. I think he has what is known as a low fight IQ and, while as tough as nails, he can’t think effectively on his feet when things aren’t going his way.

He’s up against a very well rounded opponent in Cowboy Oliveira and, despite Perry’s toughness and heavy hands, I make Oliveira long odds on in this. Oliveira is a very tricky veteran and he usually finds a way to win. With Perry’s power there is always a chance that he simply sparks him out but that is probably the only chance he has.

Advice: 1pt Alex Oliveira to beat Mike Perry @ 1.59 Marathon, MatchBet (1.57 Generally)

John Linker v Corey Sandhagen

Not much to say about this one.

Corey Sandhagen has never faced anyone at Lineker’s level and I fear it will be a rude awakening for him.

Lineker is a worthy favourite and, in my opinion at least, should be even shorter than he is. He’s one of the very few true knock out artists in the lower divisions and is never out of any fight with the kind of power he possesses.

Advice: 1pt John Lineker to beat Corey Sandhagen @ 1.68 Marathon (1.67 Generally)

Glover Texeira v Ion Cuteleba

This is an interesting fight and one which the bookies make fairly close. I agree but I don’t make it quite as close as they do.

Ion Cuteleba is a fearsome individual but he hasn’t looked unbeatable in his UFC tenure so far.

Glover Texeira has fought a who’s who of killers at light heavyweight and while he may not be quite the force of old, I still make him a fairly strong favourite in this.

Glover has an under rated ground game and if things get a bit heated on the feet, I can see him taking it to the mat and choking him out.

Advice 1pt Glover Texeira to beat Ion Cuteleba @ 1.87 Generally

Advice: 0.5 pts Texeira to win by submission @ 3.6 PP. BFSB

Advice: I will also put Oliveira, Lineker and Texieira in a 0.25 pt win trixie.

Ronaldo Souza v Jack Hermansson

Finally, we come to the main event and we have a really intriguing match up between the surging Hermansson and the wiliest of veterans in Jacare.

I’m loathe to pick against Jacare because he is one of my favourite fighters and has consistently been overlooked when richly deserving of a title shot. However, he has looked every minute of his 38 years in his last couple of fights and I have always had concerned about his gas tank.

Hermansson is a very unorthodox striker and very fast starter, neither of which bode well for the Jacare we have seen over the last couple of fights. Obviously, if it goes to the ground, while Hermansson is no BJJ slouch as his double quick submission of David Branch testifies, Jacare will be a massive favourite and that is how the bookies see it.

With this being a five rounder, the momentum Hermansson has built over his last few fights and the hand of old father time hovering over Jacare, I would be remiss if I didn’t snaffle a little of the outstanding 2,8 available on Hermansson here. My heart hopes I am wrong but my head tells me he is excellent value at that price.

Advice: 1pt Jack Hermansson to beat Ronaldo Souza @ 2.8 Unibet, 888

Summary:

Advice: 1pt Alex Oliveira to beat Mike Perry @ 1.59 Marathon, MatchBet (1.57 Generally)

Advice: 1pt John Lineker to beat Corey Sandhagen @ 1.68 Marathon (1.67 Generally)

Advice 1pt Glover Texeira to beat Ion Cuteleba @ 1.87 Generally

Advice: 0.5 pts Texeira to win by submission @ 3.6 PP. BFSB

Advice: 0.25 pt Trixe on Oliveira, Lineker and Texeira

Advice: 1pt Jack Hermansson to beat Ronaldo Souza @ 2.8 Unibet, 888

That’s all from me for now. Have a great weekend and be lucky

Kieran

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