The Greatest Steeplechase in the World

Posted on April 13, 2012 by Kieran

After a miserable first two days of theFestival for me, I will be treading very carefully for the final day .

I will, however, be getting further involved in the big race tomorrow.

If you read last week’s early look at the National, I’m already on Chicago Grey and Killyglen but will use today’s post to have a more in depth look at the trends for the race to see if I can tease our another couple of selections.

The temptation when using trends can be to drill down too far in the quest for only a couple of selections. In this race it’s better to have a few runners on our side so I will try and avoid digging in too deep.

Here goes:

Age – No horse outside the ages 8-12 has even made the frame in the last 7 years. In fact I think it’s also fairly safe to exclude 12 year olds as only 2 have triumphed in the last 20 years despite an awful lot of triers.

So excluding all horses outside the age range 8-11 allows us to get rid of Black Appalachi, Organisedconfusion, Tharawaat, Mon Mome, Tharawaat, State of Play, Vic Venturi, In Compliance, Viking Blond and Hello Bud. A decent start – the field is already 25% smaller!

Weight – No winner in the last 10 years has carried more than a stone above the bottom weight in the handicap. A pretty strong stat this that allows us to remove quite a few of the fancied runners from the equation. Anything carrying more than 11 stone has to go! Scratch Synchronised (pity he’s not an each way price!), Ballabriggs, Weird Al, Neptune Collonges, Calgary Bay, Alfabeat, Planet of Sound, Deep Purple and Junior.

All of the last 10 winners had already won a chase in excess of 3miles. This allows us to exclude Tatenen, Seabass, Treacle, Quiscover Fontaine and Becauseicouldntsee

All of the last 10 winners had only won 1 chase or less that season. Using this stat we can get rid of According to Pete and Giles Cross

All of the last 20 winners had a race within the last 50 days. On that basis we can get rid of Chicago Grey (worst luck!), West End Rocker, On His Own, Always Right, Cappa Bleu and Arbor Supreme.

On recent runnings, I’m pretty sure that anything rated 140 or below will just not be good enough which allows us to get rid of Swing Bill, Postmaster, Midnight Haze and Neptune Equester (those last 3 British bred as well which is a big no no)

After all that we are left with a shortlist of:

Shakalakaboomboom

Rare Bob

The Midnight Club

Sunnyhillboy

Killyglen

We could trim that down further but I think that would fall into the category of drilling too deep so I will leave it at that. This is never a race to get heavily involved in so I will have  those 5 + Chicago Grey against the field for very small stakes. There are some very decent prices there so should one of them triumph or a couple of them place I’ll turn a profit.

Be lucky whatever you are backing

Kieran

 

 

 

 

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John Smith’s Foxhunters value?

Posted on April 11, 2012 by Kieran

Just a very short post today dear readers

I was intending to leave my post until tomorrow when I will have an in depth look at the national but, after casting my eye over the Foxhunters tomorrow, I thought I’d post today because I’m hoping there will be a touch of value available later today.

As things stand, nobody is currently offering prices but this is a race with strong trends and I’ve managed to narrow down the 26 runner field to just a couple who fit the profile.

The strong trends for this race are:

Age: 9 to 11 year olds have won 9 of the last 10 renewals

All of the last 10 winners had won a Class 3 or above

All of the last 10 winners had won at 2m4f or further

All of the last 10 winners had won at Newbury, Haydock, Fontwell or Sedgefield

With the additional application of a couple of slightly less strong trends (but decent ones nonetheless), I have whittled this down to SILVER ADONIS and SHERIFF HUTTON. Forecast prices  on the Sporting Life website are 12/1 and 20/1 respectively. If I can get anywhere near those kind of prices about them this evening or tomorrow morning, I will have decent each way bets on both with slight preference for Silver Adonis who looked in very good order when winning last time out at Fakenham.

Gwanako is clearly a danger to the selections and with Paul Nicholl’s current form it would be no surprise to see him win. However, he’s likely to be a very warm order for this and almost certainly will be over bet.

Advice:

Silver Adonis each way at 9/1 or better

Sherriff Hutton each way at 14/1 or better

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the Grand National

Be lucky

Kieran

 

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There’s still life in the NH season….

Posted on April 4, 2012 by Kieran

Just a brief post today peeps, taking a quick look back at the fate of my first decent bet of the flat season and a look forward to the Grand National, which is almost upon us.

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It was a rum old day on Saturday. First big meeting of the 2012 flat season and my first decent bet was undone by the width of a fag paper and what looked to be a half decent draw proving to be more of a hindrance than a help.

The writing was on the wall for Mull of Killough after the Spring Mile at 2.05. I had narrowed that race down initially to five contenders (one of which was the 50/1 winner Norse Blues) based on some fairly strong trends. Sadly I had backed only my top 2 which were Shamdarley and Kay Gee Bee. Drawing a blank on the race was only a small part of the disappointment that I felt. My real disappointment stemmed from seeing the first 3 home in the race had resided in the low 3rd of the draw.

Mull of Killough was my main bet in the Lincoln and, with low looking the place to be draw-wise, his berth in 21 of 22 was making me feel decidedly queasy.

And my queasiness was well founded. Mull of Killough finished like a train over the final furlong but just failed to get up. Had he been drawn even a touch lower, I think he would have won comfortably. As it was he failed by a rapidly diminishing short head to the nicely drawn (in 12) Brae Hill. I don’t want to take anything away from Brae Hill who has deserved a big handicap win for some time (and was sorely overlooked in the betting markets for a horse who finished 2nd in this last season.)

Those are the margins we live and die by in this game. There will be plenty of winners later in the season where we get the luck of the draw – resulting in a victory that may well not be fully deserved!

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The Grand National

A lung bursting 4m4f over gigantic fences, around weird turns,  avoiding fallen jockeys, loose horses and general pandemonium.

Just hearing the words themselves conjures up images of sitting excitedly as a boy watching this crazy event unfold before me. It was while watching this race that I caught the bug and it’s never gone away.

I will be doing a far more in depth look at the race next week but I thought it might be interesting to make an initial assessment of the race now based solely on value. I’ve spotted a few that I think will go off shorter than their current prices and I will be taking up positions now with a view to possibly trading out of them later.

My early thoughts are:

Killyglen – looks over priced at 20/1 with Lads and Coral. This one was going well in contention last year when falling 4 from home. He’s clearly been aimed at the race and a bit of a gamble is starting to develop. I could see this one going off considerably shorter. For those of you with a slightly more cautious attitude Bet 365 go 16/1 on him with non runner no bet.

Chicago Grey – I think you could do a lot worse than have a few quid on this one at 14/1. Hailing from a yard that really knows the time of day when it comes to the National and there’s been some decent support for it in recent days.

Giles Cross – I would love to see this ultra- consistent performer win the race but unfortunately I am struggling to see it. I think he will struggle to stay. Everytime he’s gone even close to this distance he’s finished very tired and I think this might be just a touch too far. I may be tempted into a small bet nearer the day but for now I will be keeping my powder dry.

I’ll leave it there for now but I will be keeping a close eye on things as they develop and do a full in depth analysis nearer the race.

Have a great day

Kieran

 

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The Flat’s here already….

Posted on March 29, 2012 by Kieran

The sun is beating down and you could be forgiven for thinking it was Royal Ascot week rather than a couple of days before the Lincoln.

The flat season is almost here and bettors with any sense will be reining their stakes in over the coming month until the form settles and we know where we are.

That being said, I thought I’d use today’s post to take an in depth look at the Lincoln Handicap on Saturday, the first major flat race of the season. Here’s hoping we can find a couple at value prices.

The Lincoln Handicap

Simply by looking at the name of the sponsor, we can see that this will be a tricky puzzle to work out -it’s a bookmakers benefit of a race in the form of a mad cavalry charge over the straight mile at Doncaster. However, with judicious use of stats and trends hopefully we can  pick our way through the minefield.

I think we can safely exclude any horse over the age of 6 (only 2 winners over 6 years old in the last 30 runnings, none in the last 10 years). Nice stat that because it allows us to get rid of nearly a third of the field in a single stroke -Smarty Socks, Mia’s Boy, Lowther, Light from Mars, Stevie Thunder, Shavansky and Dubai Dynamo all fail on that basis.

We can also exclude any runner with an official  rating below 91 (91 was the lowest rated winner in the last 10 years – and the next lowest rated winner in that time was rated 95). In fact I’m inclined to take out any runner that isn’t rated at least 95 This allows us to get rid of Barren Brook and Amitola.

All of the last 10 winners had previously won over at least a mile or further and this allows us to take out Field of Dream, Cocozza, Fury and  Brae Hill.

9 of the last 10 winners had between 2 and 4 career win (all of the last 9) and this allows us to exclude Edinburgh Knight, Pintura and Don’t Call Me

Now, I may be going one trend too far with this one (but I’m going to do it anyway!) but none of the last 10 winners had won at Doncaster before. This allows us to get rid of Eton Forever and Man of Action.

We now have a shortlist of:

Start Right,  Askaud, Clockmaker and Mull of Killough

I’m not saying none of the others will win – there’s a few extremely well fancied ones we’ve got rid of – but the trends say they are up against it.

I’d like to exclude some on the basis of the draw but the bias that used to exist  seems to have disappeared. In the last 10 years, winners have been fairly evenly spread over low, middle and high draws.

Let’s look at the chances of our shortlist:

Start Right – It’s interesting to see a Godolphin horses back in the UK so early. A very interesting runner and one I shall have a small each way interest on at 12/1

Askaud – Both trainer and jockey are a bit of a worry for me but 33/1 is too big to be ignored about this one. Another small each way interest.

Clockmaker – Doesn’t win often but could well be in the shake up at a nice price. Another small each way interest at 28/1 with Sporting Bet

Mull of Killough – My real fancy this one – 3rd in this race 2 years ago, a decent win in a Class 2 at Lingfield last time out for his new trainer, a 50% place strike rate on the turf -I’m very keen on this one, 14/1 looks too big to me and I could see him going off shorter. A reasonable each way bet is called for.

Summary:

Small each way interests on Start Right, Askaud and Clockmaker at 12/1, 28/1 and 33/1 respectively.

A decent each way bet on Mull of Killough at 14/1

That’s all from me today

Good luck whatever you are backing

Kieran

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Cheltenham Highs and Lows….

Posted on March 21, 2012 by Kieran

A very good morning to all,

It’s only a short one today, looking back over the highs and lows of another Cheltenham past along with a cry for help!

 

Cheltenham Highs

Cheering Finians Rainbow past Sizing Europe on the run in of the Queen Mother Champion Chase. What was looking like an unpleasant Cheltenham for me on the betting front, was saved, right there in a single moment.

Synchronised – a little horse with a huge heart -showing every ounce of that heart and a will of steel to go past them all and win the Gold Cup. I knew he was a top class handicapper but prior to his facile win in the Lexus Chase, I would never have dreamed he was this classy. An amazing achievement.

Nicky Henderson smashing Fulke Walwyn’s all time Cheltenham winner record. I know Mr Henderson isn’t the most loved of trainers (and there are plenty of reasons why not) but I’ve had the utmost respect for him since he was kind enough to write and read a very moving eulogy at the funeral of a close friend of mine a few years ago. Since then, he can do very little wrong in my eyes – so more power to his arm. There can be no doubt he is one of the National Hunt training greats now – whatever your personal opinion of him.

Big Bucks record breaking 4th victory in the World Hurdle. I was beginning to fear for the fate of all horses sent out from Ditcheat last week but Big Bucks found enough to stay exactly where he belongs, right at the very peak of the staying hurdler world.

Mixed High and Low

I’m not sure how to feel about this.

I would have loved to see Kauto Star win the Gold Cup for sentimental reasons, so it was a real low to see him pulled up. Not a fitting end to a great career and I don’t think he should have been put in the race.

The high comes in the fact that, due to the multiple factors against him, I had layed him throughout the day. I’m afraid there’s very little room for sentiment in betting for a living and I made hay at what I viewed as a ludicrous price.

Cheltenham Lows

The unnecessary deaths of Scotsirish and Garde Champetre in the Cross Country Chase – shouldn’t have been run and should never be run again.

The failure of Binocular in the Champion Hurdle – I thought he was a good thing for at least a place – and I’m still convinced he was. It just wasn’t to be.

The lowest low, in a personal sense, was my each way treble on the Friday, which promised so much – and, ultimately, failed to deliver. The treble was as follows:

Synchronised – Gold Cup – 12/1 Won

Salsify – Foxhunters – 7/1 Won

Make a Track -Martin Pipe Conditionals – 16/1 4th

I had better than 2 grand riding on Make a Track (I know, I know -I should have layed some off!) after the first 2 went in and as they leapt the last, for one glorious moment, I thought he was going to sail past them all. He then got horribly squeezed up by the eventual winner and was unable to regain his stride in time. I’m not sure that he would have got there anyway – but it certainly didn’t help.

So near and yet so far…there was a great deal of wailing and gnashing of teeth, I have to admit. The place return softened the blow slightly but not enough to stop me fuming about it for most of the weekend. Apologies to Mrs MYBP are probably in order!

I’d love to hear the highs and lows enjoyed/endured by readers so please leave a comment!

 

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I thought I’d been so clever running my Cheltenham tipping competition in conjunction with the Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham Competition. It certainly turned out to be a true test of tipping ability and in that sense it was a roaring success. Congratulations are due to Mark Shepherd (who lead almost from start to finish), Stuart Boa, our second place finisher and Richard Halliday our gallant 3rd.

Unfortunately, I was not aware that the Fantasy Cheltenham website would not allow me access to the email addresses of League entrants. And therein lies my difficulty.

I have, as yet, been unable to contact any of our top three finishers to learn where I should send the prizes!

That being the case, I would be most grateful if Mark, Stuart and Richard could contact me asap on kieran@makeyourbettingpay.co.uk and I will get prizes sent out post haste!

Thats all from me today

Be lucky

Kieran

PS I’ve heard a very strong word this morning for Gold Ingot, running in the 5.35 at Warwick. Apparently, he’s improved enormously for his first run and, though not a huge price, he’s expected to win.

 

 

 

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Gold Cup Preview + Mid Point review

Posted on March 15, 2012 by Kieran

Wow – what a first couple of days it has been. I could write a novel but I will try to be as succinct as possible.

 

Day 1 and 2 Ponderings

No one is a bigger fan than I of Tony McCoy and I certainly don’t like to criticise the 16 time Champion Jockey, but I have to say, in my honest opinion, he gave Binocular a shockingly bad ride in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday.

He made the, frankly, amateurish mistake of racing one horse rather than the field. He was so intent on tracking Hurricane Fly that by the time he realised The Fly was the wrong one,  the birds had flown. He had far too much ground to make up and, as a direct result, clouted the last and failed even to place.

I’m not convinced he’d have won had he been ridden closer to the pace but I’m damn sure he would have finished at least 2nd. Great jockey but a very, very poor ride.

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I really don’t know where to start with the tragic debacle of the Cross Country Chase. Both Scotsirish and Garde Champetre lost their lives needlessly. I’ve always thought that it’s a farce of a race which has no place at the premier jumps meeting of the season. The tragedies on Tuesday have only confirmed that opinion.

The going on that Cross Country course was patently unsafe and I’m amazed that it wasn’t picked up by the safety inspection teams or the trainers. Willie Mullins has gone right down in my estimation after his comment about having “no complaints about the ground.” How many horses would have needed to be injured for him to think it unsuitable?

This was an entirely preventable tragedy and the tired old cliches really aren’t good enough. I cringe when I hear commentators spouting about the horses “doing the thing they love” or that they “couldn’t be better looked after.” I’m sure the Romans said much the same thing about the gladiators. Would they feel it was alright to make such trite statements if a jockey had been killed? Those kind of justifications are simply not good enough

I love National Hunt racing, it has an irresistible draw for me and I’m no lily liberal in these matters  but races like that make me very uncomfortable indeed. Uncomfortable enough to seriously wonder if the games worth the candle.

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On to happier things.

After a shockingly bad first day for me on the betting front (Binocular unplaced, Montbazon unplaced), and the ludicrous end of Cotton Mill, my big bet in the 2nd race on Wednesday, I have to say I was very glad ( for that read relieved!) to see Finians Rainbow land the spoils in the Queen Mother.

It was my biggest bet of the festival and the race played out pretty much as I hoped it would. There was slight drama at the final fence but he comfortably polished off Sizing Europe going up the hill. I had to laugh when Henry de Bromhead said “who knows what would have happened if it wasn’t for that (the final fence incident)” and Andrew Lynch said “the final fence cost him the race”

If it hadn’t been for the final fence incident, Finians would have won even further. Anybody who thinks that Sizing Europe was more inconvenienced than Finians, needs to take another hard look at the race and then, maybe, get their eyes tested.

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Tuesday wasn’t a complete wash out for me though.

I must admit to being cheered enormously by the thought of Charlie brooks (The Louche of Lambourn) languishing in police cells somewhere after being arrested in relation to the phone hacking scandal. It was particularly pleasing after having read his Telegraph column in which he waxed lyrical about the festival being the highlight of his year.

Cheers for that Charlie – made my day!

Nothing could have pleased me more (except perhaps the arrest and imprisonment of Sam Whaley-Cohen)

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The Make Your Betting Pay tipping league is galloping along nicely and we currently have a runaway leader, in the shape of Mark Shepherd who,as well as sitting atop our league, is in the top 200 players in the country.

Well done Mark!

It also speaks volumes for the betting knowledge of blog readers that our league is 22nd overall in the league of leagues. Well done to everybody.

All still to play for.

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Readers of my earlier feature race previews will already know that I like Dynaste each way for the World Hurdle but I thought I had better pass on a piece of gossip I picked up yesterday.

Apparently MOURAD has had a long term problem with his feet which was fixed last week. The word I heard is that he is expected to be 20 lengths better than at the Festival last year. That being the case, he would be very hard to keep out of the frame. It remains to be seen if the effect is that dramatic, but I’ve had a small each way saver at 33/1.

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Gold Cup

I would love to be able to say I fancied KAUTO STAR to land his 3rd Gold Cup. It would be a fitting, crowning achievement to an already glittering career and I can’t think of a horse who deserves it more.

Unfortunately, I can’t.

I’m very wary of the Nicholl’s runners at the moment and I’m pretty sure that they are still not right. So far he’s had only one winner (trained at a satellite yard) and a second from a host of runners.

Taking that into account, along with the scare last week over the schooling fall, I’d want an awful lot bigger price than the 7/2 generally available about Kauto.  At that price I’m a layer, I’m afraid.

I think LONG RUN is about right in the betting and if he would just drift a little more – say to 5/2 – I would have to back him. As things stand, I won’t be, despite him being the most likely winner of the race.

MIDNIGHT CHASE is the horse that interests me most, as I mentioned in previous posts. I backed him a while ago at 16/1 and he’s shortened considerably since then.  He absolutely loves Cheltenham (5th in this last year and an all the way winner here since). He’s got a fair amount to find obviously but I’m hopeful of a bold showing.

I also think BURTON PORT has a reasonable chance based on his fast closing 2nd to Long Run at Newbury last time. The extra distance should suit him down to the ground. Henderson will have had him very fit for his return that day but I still think he might strip a bit fitter for the run.

The only other one I will get involved on is SYNCHRONISED – particularly if there is any money for him in the morning. A straight value call for me.

My Bets:

Reasonable each way bet on MIDNIGHT CHASE at 12/1 with Paddy Power

Small each way bets on BURTON PORT (15/2 Skybet) and Synchronised (12/1 generally)

That’s it from me today. Be lucky, whatever you are backing

Kieran

PS Anyone thinking of plunging on Big Bucks today should think VERY HARD about the form of the Nicholls horses at the moment. I’m not saying he won’t win. I just don’t think that Nicholls’s difficulties are being fully factored into his price.

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Day 3: The World Hurdle

Posted on March 12, 2012 by Kieran

The waiting is nearly over.

The beers are chilling nicely, the boys are primed for an early arrival at mine tomorrow, everything looks set -I’m having my own version of the Cheltenham Festival at my house this year.

A much more civilised Festival will be had. Good beer, good food and good company are the order of the day. I will be watching every race in it’s entirety from the comfort of my sofa. No hour long queues for a drink, no loud mouth screaming in my ear, no craning my neck around some overly-hatted fool to gain a glimpse of the runners, no two hour traffic jam to navigate.

What a blissful thought – bring it on!

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The Pipe team have finally decided they will go the RSA route with Grand Crus (a mistake in my view, but there you go) and somebody in the know clearly made hay on Sunday on Betfair. Having been as short as 6.8 for the Gold Cup, somebody was very keen to lay him, forcing him all the way out to 40 long before today’s announcement. Far be it for me to say there is anything crooked in that – but somebody knew – and has taken very unfair advantage of that knowledge. I’m not talking through my pocket as I didn’t have a penny involved but those Betfair backers have been taken for a ride and have every right to feel aggrieved.

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Moving on to Day 3 of the festival for my next preview and the feature race of the day is the World Hurdle.

This is a race that lends itself very nicely to domination (at least in recent years)  by a single horse over multiple years. It’s a specialist distance for hurdlers and we are working with a fairly small pool of horses that have the necessary set of skills to be succesful.

Big Bucks has won the last 3 renewals in the process of running up a 15 race winning streak. To think it was doubtful he would ever go distance hurdling? He only did because he found it almost impossible to get over a fence!

It’s very hard to make any kind of a case against Big Bucks but I think his price is about right and therefore not of any real interest to me. If you’re looking for a winner at any price, then he’s the one you should be on.

Oscar Whiskey hasn’t really put a foot wrong this season but I certainly can’t have him at 4/1 considering he’s never attempted further than 2 and a half miles. That looks a very short price to me and of absolutely no interest. Backing those kind of horses at 4/1 is the fast route to the poor house. In actual fact, I’ll be laying this one all day long come Thursday with anyone who’s prepared to take that kind of price.

Dynaste is a horse I like. I know he’s been soundly beaten twice this season by Big Bucks and is very unlikely to topple the champion this time but I think he’s still young and progressive. If Big Bucks has any kind of problem, I could see Dynaste being the one leading them home. He is likely to make a bold bid from the front and who knows (unlikely I know) maybe he will repel them all going up the hill. 14/1 is a very decent price for us to find out.

The only other one who makes any appeal at all is Carlito Brigante. He’s had a very odd campaign this year,  but I know Gordon Elliott is very sweet on him. He’s unlikely to take his place in the race but it might be worth having just a very small, speculative each way interest at the generally available 25/1

My bets are:

Reasonable each way bet on Dynaste at 14/1

Very small each way bet on Carlito Brigante at 25/1 Non Runner No Bet

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Finally today, it’s pretty much the final chance to get involved in the Make Your betting Pay Cheltenham Tipping League. We’ve already got a decent number of teams entered and if you want to be involved you need to sign up by noon tomorrow.

The prizes in the league are:

1st £50 + A limited edition print of Kauto Star winning the King George this year, personally signed by Ruby Walsh

2nd £30

3rd £20

It’s completely free to enter at:

http://fantasyracing.telegraph.co.uk/select-team

Once you have selected your stable of jockeys/trainers, you can find the league by the name:

Make Your Betting Pay

and join with the

Pin No: 8000357

Please note that I will only be allowing 1 stable per entrant- any 2nd or 3rd stables entered by the same person will be deleted before the first race.

Head over and join in the fun!

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I’ll have my full preview of the Gold Cup with you in the next couple of days.

Be lucky tomorrow

Kieran

 

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Queen Mother Champion Chase

Posted on March 9, 2012 by Kieran

Cheltenham Festival fever appears to have hit the country and I’ve been swamped with calls from friends, family and acquaintances asking me what I like for next week.

Very few of my friends and family (for that read 0) understand the concept of value and when I explain to them I’m not hunting for winners, I’m hunting for value their eyes glaze over and they say “just give me a winner.”

The whole thing is getting to be a damn headache. Not the festival, I’m looking forward to that, just the once or twice a year bettors expecting me to pull a winner out of my a**e.

Does that sound grumpy and uncharitable?

Good, because that’s how I’m feeling!

I’ll get over it – I just need to decide what I consider the most likely winner of the week and wear it’s name on a sign around my neck

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More Cheltenham Gossip:

French bred Saphir River, another of the French horses widely believed to be well in on their UK handicap mark, has created waves with a spectacular piece of work he did at Newbury on Sunday. Michael Scudamore said the he worked “very, very well” and he’s “a very exciting horse”

Saphir’s most likely target is the Pertemps Final and he might be worth a small each way interest at the currently available 25/1

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The Queen Mother Champion Chase

The Queen Mother has always been my favourite race of the festival It has seen some fantastic ding dong battles and some amazing horses over the years. Two of my all time favourite horses, Viking Flagship and Moscow Flyer, have been multiple winners of this and it’s always the race I get most excited about each year.

That being said, this years event looks a fairly weak renewal with little strength in depth (in my opinion, I know others disagree!).

There are only 2 likely winners for me, Sizing Europe and Finian’s Rainbow, and I would have them much closer in the betting than our bookmaking friends have.

I give Finian’s rainbow a very decent chance of beating Sizing Europe, whose performances this season and last, I feel, have been seriously over rated. I still make Sizing Europe favourite(about 2/1 on my book) but not by much and all of the value lies in the 5/1 available for Finian’s Rainbow.

Finian’s Rainbow is my biggest bet of the festival at 5/1 each way

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 Finally today, I thought I’d point readers in the direction of a decent free betting resource.

Daily Punt is, as the name would suggest, a daily email giving general betting advice and normally a specific daily tip. I’ve been writing a few articles for them over recent months and they have a decent team put together over there. It’s completely free to sign up for the emails and they know what they are talking about.

Sign up free for the Daily Punt here

 

That’s it for today, I’ll be back with my thoughts on the World Hurdle in the coming days.

Be lucky

Kieran

 

 

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Cheltenham Gossip….

Posted on March 7, 2012 by Kieran

 

The Festival is almost upon us and the rumours are flying thick and fast! Starting today, I will be relaying any  gossip I hear about the chances of the main players:

There have been some raised eyebrows in the last couple of days over the perceived drift in price of Long Run for the Gold Cup (6/4 out to 2/1 on Betfair). Seven barrows have denied that there is a problem with the horse and my contact at the stable has told me there is nothing amiss. If the drift continues, I may be tempted into backing him - 5/2 would be my minimum target price. (My main bet of the race is each way on Midnight Chase which I got at 16/1. I still think he’s overpriced at 12′s if anyone fancies following me in)

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I’ve also been hearing a few noises from the King stable. Here are the little pieces of gossip I have managed to sniff out:

Invictus – has had a few problems in recent days so factor that into any bets you may be having. Not sure how serious the problems have been but there are problems nonetheless.

Grumeti – Not really gossip this as everybody knows but I will repeat it again anyway. Grumeti was lame yesterday after spreading a plate and getting the clip in his foot. They think he will be fine so long as there is no infection.

Vendor –  Strongly fancied for the Fred Winter. The fancy prices are long gone unfortunately but 7/2 looks a reasonable price to me considering Mr King thinks this one is as good as Grumeti who’s rated 15lbs higher.

Montbazon – In cracking form at home and has a very good each way chance in the Supreme Novices hurdle

Bless the Wings – Another one that is really fancied – a big each way chance were the exact words I heard. Working really well and ready to run his race.

Hold on Julio – this one has had a few problems since his last run and may need to be treated with caution.

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That’s all the gossip for now.

Over the next three posts,  I’ll be letting you in on the bets that I percieve to be the best value in the feature races of each day at the festival (you’ve already heard that my big each way fancy for the gold cup is Midnight Chase). Today |I’m looking at the Champion Hurdle, the big race on the opening day.

Champion Hurdle

Clearly it’s very difficult to see past Hurricane Fly. If he runs his race, he wins – there is very little doubt of that. However, I don’t feel there is any value playing him at odds on when we can back Binocular at 5/1 and get paid 1/4 the odds a place.

I think Binocular is nailed on for a place if running to anything like his best and is certainly the one best equipped to take advantage if things don’t go right for the Fly. Looks a free each way beat to me.

There are far too many negatives about Zarkandar for me to consider backing him at 5/1. He’s too young and too inexperienced on the trends.  Props to him if he wins it – but he certainly won’t be carrying any of my money at that price.

The only others I would remotely consider at a price are Thousand Stars and Brampour. Neither are likely to trouble the front 2 in the market but they are decent enough prices at 25/1 and 50/1 respectively.

My bets:

Hefty each way on Binocular at 5/1. I may also have a bet  in the W/O Hurricane Fly market at around 5/2

Small each way on Thousand Stars and Brampour at 25/1 and 50/1 respectively.

In my next post I will give you my idea of the value in the Queen Mother – probably my biggest bet of the week will be in that one.

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Finally today, many thanks to everybody who has signed up for the tipping league I’ve set up over at:

 http://fantasyracing.telegraph.co.uk/select-team

Make sure you sign up – it’s free and I’ve put up some great prizes for the first three (over and above the prizes being offered by the Telegraph).

The pin number for our league is: 8000357

However, in my previous post, I did forget to mention that I will only be allowing one entry per person into the Make Your Betting Pay league, to make it all completely fair. Could anyone who has entered more than once please contact me regarding which of their teams I should remove. If I don’t hear, I will remove entries at random to ensure that there is only one entry per person.

I hope that’s fair.

Have a great evening and look out for my mails in the coming days if you’re interested in what I’ll be on in all the feature races.

Kieran

 

 

 

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The Irish are Coming…

Posted on March 2, 2012 by Kieran

It’s been a long, long time since I managed to get anything up on this blog and for that, you have my sincerest apologies.

I know it’s no excuse but I’ve been ravaged over the last couple of weeks with a level of back pain I’ve never experienced before – the kind of pain, discomfort and lack of mobility that I wouldn’t wish upon a mortal enemy. It’s been just about all I could manage to carry out my form study and keep my premium services running and profitable.

I’ve had bad backs before – with my weight and sedentary lifestyle it’s almost compulsory – but this was beyond anything I’ve experienced before – and I hope never to experience it again!

That being said, I’ve neglected readers horribly and I intend to put that right in the lead up to the world’s greatest jumps meeting. Less than 2 weeks to go now and the various contests are firming up nicely. I spend the first 2 weeks in March in an almost permanent state of excitement and suspense – not so much for the betting element of the festival -that’s always fraught with danger and pitfalls for the unwary – but for the sheer spectacle of the thing. The very best horses facing off against each other, the well planned Irish coups (more on those later!), the highs, the lows, the unexpected wins and the gut-wrenching losses.

It’s a pretty amazing four days.

Which brings me to my thoughts for a Cheltenham Festival tipping competition.

I think that the easiest way to run such a competition would be in conjunction with the Daily Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham Competition. I’ve set up a league which anybody can join called Make Your Betting Pay. There are decent prizes on offer for the winner of the overall competition but I will be putting up my own prizes for the winner of the Make Your betting Pay league.

The prizes will be as follows:

1st £50 + a beautiful Ruby Walsh signed, limited edition print of Kauto Star winning the King George last December. I love this picture (and I’d really rather not give it away!) but it makes an absolutely fantastic prize

2nd £30

3rd £20

You can sign up for the Daily telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham competition at:

http://fantasyracing.telegraph.co.uk/select-team

And you can then join the MYBP league by searching for the Make Your Betting Pay League and then using the access pin to join.

Pin Number: 8000357

Make sure you read the rules carefully because it involves picking a horse in each race daily as the festival progresses as well as selecting a stable of trainers and jockeys that you want as part of your team.

It’s free to enter and there are some great prizes so head over and sign up.

 

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Biggest news item yesterday was the schooling fall of Kauto Star that apparently makes it a coin toss whether he’ll turn up for the Gold Cup at all. A terrible shame if he doesn’t because I can’t see him returning next year.

Far be it for me to question the tactics and strategies of one of the best trainers of our generation but I have to say my first reaction to the news was –just how much schooling does Kauto Star really need?  This is a horse who has achieved everything in the sport and fallen only 3 times in a 40 race career. Did he really need schooling over fences 2 weeks before the festival? Surely just keeping him fit and hard is enough. I’m sure I’m missing something but it seems a bit odd to me.

In fact, ignore me, Pumpkin knows best and who do I think I am to be questioning his preparations?

 

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Lastly today a word about a couple of  Irish raiders.

I’ve been hearing very strong vibes from across the Irish Sea on how highly Willie Mullins rates Call the Police. The information comes from a usually reliable source and I’ve been told that this horse will be the subject of a serious gamble – most likely in the Jewsons.  I’ve had a decent wager at the 12/1 currently being offered by Victor Chandler with the Non Runner No bet concession. I thought it was worth taking under the best price of 14/1 to get NRNB with plans not fully finalised as yet.

The other one worth a mention is Carlito Brigante. Gordon Elliott is apparently very bullish about his chances of following up in the Coral Cup again. Now, that’s a pretty difficult race to get right once let alone twice but the horse is certainly ready to give it his best shot.  The 20/1 available with Corals makes a lot of appeal as a speculative each way wager or even the 16/1 available non runner no bet with Ladbrokes.

I’ve put the pair of them in a cheeky each way double that will pay the expenses for the next 12 months if I’m lucky enough to land it!

That’s all from me today

Be lucky

 

Kieran

 

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