Make Your Betting Pay

Fresh from a triumphant Aintree Festival, Nick Hardman is back with a comprehensive look at Saturday’s big cards at Ayr (including the Scottish National) and Newbury on the flat. Take it away, Nick:

First up a big thank you to all who commented on the Aintree blog and it was truly fantastic to know a few of you cashed in, especially on the Saturday.  Back to reality and last weekend may well turn out to be an impossible act to follow!  As I have said all along I do not see myself as a tipster, but I love writing about all things racing and I am happy to continue to share with you my selections and fancies for the big races and festivals.  This Saturday sees the Scottish Grand National, the Scottish Champion Hurdle and also a cracking flat meeting at Newbury.  I am not one for getting heavily involved at the beginning of the flat season so I apologise now for a cautious approach to the Newbury meeting.  As you know though, I will more than make up for that with multiple selections in the Scottish Grand National!  Plenty to get stuck into so here goes….

Channel 4’s coverage kicks off with the Group 3 John Porter Stakes at 1.50pm run over 1m 4f.  Noble Mission ran third in this last year and has every chance again, whilst Mutashaded looks a Group horse in waiting.  However, he is coming back from an injury which is enough to put me off.  Khione is interesting and is another whose season was cut short last year.  He goes well fresh though and 8/1 is a good price.  The one I have backed to small stakes is Sir Michael Stoute’s Astonishing @9/2, receiving a handy 3lb sex allowance.  Cases can be made for most of these but I do like the look of Stoute’s filly and 9/2 is a decent price.

Over to Ayr and the next race is the Novice Chase over 2 ½ miles.  This looks like a match between Valdez and Eduard and given the form of Alan King’s runners I am happy to back Valdez @11/10.  The form of his 5^th in the Arkle Chase is much the best on offer.  I’ve backed him with William Hill for the second place insurance.  I can’t see him outside the first two, unless of course he falls or unseats (you heard it here first if he does!).

The fillies take centre stage next in the Group 3 Fred Darling at 2.20pmo back at Newbury.  Experience usually counts in these races with form at Listed or Group level.  Eight of the last ten winners had an adjusted RPR of at least 114.  Using that angle leaves two here, and not surprisingly they top the betting.  At the prices I have backed Joyeuse @6/1 and Al Thakira @7/2 win only.  I have kept stakes quite conservative as dangers abound, with Coral Mist and J Wonder to name but two.  The latter could be the each-way bet of the race @12/1 with Bet365 paying ¼ odds, 3 places.

The Scottish Champion Hurdle should go the way of My Tent Or Yours and I have taken 5/4 with William Hill knowing I get a refund if he finishes second.  I don’t have a strong opinion on an each-way alternative as I think My Tent Or Yours only has to reproduce his current form to take this, despite giving lumps of weight all round.  If he fails to do so then Cockney Sparrow or Court Minstrel could be the ones to capitalize.  The former gets a 17lb pull at the weights for a 3 length beating at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth back in December, but ran below expectations in the Mare’s Hurdle at Cheltenham when fifth.  The latter did us all a favour winning at Aintree last week at a fantastic 16/1.  He shoulders a 5lb penalty for that win but he did win the Scottish Champion Hurdle last year off a rating of 141.  He’s rated 152 here but gets 14lb from My Tent Or Yours.  As long as he avoids the “bounce” factor he should go well again.  However, it will be a win only bet for me on My Tent Or Yours @5/4.

The Greenham Stakes is definitely a race to watch with a host of horses high in the pecking order for this year’s Classics with Kingman, Berkshire, Astaire and Night Of Thunder the main contenders.  I really do not know who will win this race and the prices of the main protagonists means it’s one for me to sit out (we will have a bet at Thirsk instead, so keep reading!).  I will not be betting but at the prices I would say Astaire and Berkshire offer a touch of value.  However, Astaire has only raced at 6f and Berkshire may turn out to be better over further and that’s enough to make me give this one the serve.

In the Listed Handicap Chase over 2 miles at Ayr, I have to stick with Alan King and Manyriverstocross @3/1.  He was back on track last time out and his defeat of Claret Cloak in his first run this season is decent form, with that opponent running 3^rd in the Grand Annual (should have won) and 3^rd at Aintree last week.  I think he needs a bit of improvement to take this but that is a distinct possibility and he should go close.

The Spring Cup looks typically competitive, but I love these big field handicaps so let’s see if we can crack this one.  This race sees a lot of horses that ran in the Lincoln or the Spring Mile at Doncaster.  Four year olds have won 7 of the last 10.  From that age group I am going to give another chance to One Word More who I backed for the Lincoln only to see him fail to enter the stalls (well at least I got my money back) and I’ve taken the 16/1 each-way (5 places).  Another 4 year old I’ve backed is Brownsea Brink @10/1 each-way (5 places) for the formidable Hannon/ Moore combination.  He ran a cracker on debut this season and the form was franked when winner Purcell went in again.  Charles Camoin could be a dark horse @22/1.  He goes well fresh, winning first time out in 2012 and 2013.  The last time he ran at a mile was in 2011 when he split Tullius (now rated 109 and runner up in this year’s Lincoln) and Levitate (now rated 106 and winner of the Lincoln in 2013).  It may just be that those two have gone on and improved way beyond Charles Camoin, but out of curiosity I have taken the 22/1 each-way 5 places to very small stakes (enough to have a beer and a Chinese if he rips up the formbook and wins).

And so to the main event, the Scottish Grand National.  It has an extremely lop-sided look to it with most of the horses racing from out of the handicap thanks to the inclusion of Tidal Bay who has to lug top weight of 11st 12lb.  This grand servant would be a hugely popular winner but at 14/1 he’s not for me, especially as only 1 of the last 9 winners has carried more than 11st to victory.  In fact 7 of the last 9 winners carried no more than 10st 4lbs.  One I backed earlier in the week is Mister Marker @40/1 each-way (5 places).  He was third in this last year and the further the better for him.  I am hoping he will plod into some place money.  I doubt he is good enough to win but the marathon trip suits and with a clean round of jumping he can make the frame.  Lucinda Russell has a strong hand with Green Flag the current race favourite.  He ran fourth in the Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham festival behind Holywell and Ma Filleule who both franked the form in no uncertain terms at Aintree last week.  Lie Forrit is another of her runners but he is much better over hurdles and it would be some feat to take this on his return to the bigger obstacles.  Her final runner is Nuts N Bolts who won over 3m 5f on his seasonal debut but has done little since in a light campaign.  However he has track figures of 1311P.  That one blip was when pulled up in this race last year when 10/1 co-favourite.  It’s risky but I have had a little each-way @33/1 (5 places).  Jonjo O’Neill runs Merry King who has every chance on previous form but was totally lack lustre in the Haydock Grand National trial when last seen.  Alpha Victor ran a cracker in the Midlands National but that looked a hard race and this may come too quickly.  Roberto Goldback is an interesting runner for Nicky Henderson.  He ran a good race to finish 3^rd in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and fell at the last in the 2013 Grand National when well beaten.  I am surprised though to see that Barry Geraghty chooses Hadrian’s Approach.  If his stamina holds out he could run well and @20/1 I’ve been tempted in for a nibble.  Those three each-way plays look like giving us a run for our money but in terms of a genuine outright winner we probably need to look closer to the head of the betting.  Trustan Times could be thrown in on his hurdling form but he has raced just once over the larger obstacles in the last 2 years.  That alone is enough to put me off.  Sam Winner is improving and clearly wants longer but the extra mile is a big step into the unknown.  The same can be said for Green Flag but I prefer this one of the two and without much difference in the prices I think the 10/1 is a decent bet on the favourite.  That Cheltenham Handicap Chase in which he was a staying-on fourth could be one of the hottest end of season races.  With the form franked as mentioned earlier, I make Green Flag my final fancy in this year’s Scottish National.

Over at Thirsk at 4.00pm I have had a small bet on Breton Rock who is 4 from 6 when racing over 6 or 7 furlongs.  He should go close and may well be one to follow this year.

Newbury 1.50pm Astonishing @9/2

Ayr 2.05pm Valdez @11/10 (William Hill)

Newbury 2.20pm Al Thakira @7/2 and Joyeuse @6/1

Ayr 2.40pm My Tent Or Yours @5/4 (William Hill)

Newbury 2.55pm No Bet

Ayr 3.15pm Manyriverstocross @3/1 (William Hill)

Newbury 3.30pm Brownsea Brink @10/1, One Word More @16/1 & Charles Camoin @22/1 (all each-way, 5 places)

Ayr 3.50pm Green Flag @10/1 & Nuts N Bolts @33/1, Roberto Goldback @20/1 and Mister Marker @40/1 (each-way, 5 places)

Thirsk 4.00pm Breton Rock @4/1

Day 2 got off to a flying start with Josses Hill justifying favouritism with a solid performance in the opener and I was more than happy with the 2/1 I took yesterday afternoon as he was sent off at 6/4.  It was 2 from 2 on Day 2 after Hollywell put in a brilliant round of jumping and galloped the legs of his rivals to win @7/2.  Module was a late withdrawal in the Melling Chase and Wishfull Thinking ran a stinker.  Boston Bob won a thrilling finish, produced very late by Paul Townend in what could well turn out to be ride of the week.

The Topham Chase was won impressively by Ma Filleule, further dispelling the myth that horses that run well at Cheltenham do not follow up at Aintree.  Tatenen ran another huge race in 4^th @25/1 and fair play if you backed him given his Aintree record.  Big Fella Thanks was tapped for toe about three out and faded into midfield, ahead of my other fancy Rebel Rebellion who never featured.  Seeyouatmidnight was beaten out of sight by Nicky Henderson’s Beat That in the Novice Hurdle that followed and it was looking like the two early winners would be the sole return on Day 2.  Indeed it was as Attaglance and Like Minded finished out of the places in the final race.

And so to the third and final day of the meeting and we kick off with another Novice Hurdle at 1.30pm over 2 ½ miles.  Sea Lord is an obvious starting point with form figures 1111112, but he has a 139 day absence to overcome and has done all his winning around the 2 mile mark and I’ll take him on.  Of those that have proven form over 2 ½ miles, Kayf Moss is interesting for his latest win in a Grade 2 and if he still has improvement in him then he should go close.  Lac Fontana and Volnay De Thaix represent two powerful yards and both could improve for the step up in trip.  Lac Fontana won the County Hurdle while Volnay De Thaix’s sole defeat was at the hands of Irving.  Oscar Hoof is interesting for Nicky Henderson on only his 4^th start over hurdles and Geraghty takes the ride after his treble on Day 2.  Given the form of the stable this week and the jockey arrangements I have backed Oscar Hoof @6/1 and Kayf Moss @14/1.

Seven go to post in the Maghull Novice Chase.  Again a case can be made for all seven runners so I am going to play on the cautious side.  Hinterland was thought good enough to run in the Queen Mother Champion Chase but unseated his rider that day, whilst Ted Veale (fell) and Trifolium (3^rd) contested the Arkle.  Balder Success @7/2 is the one I have backed as his prominent racing style and decent speed seems ideal for this race and fits the profile of previous winners.  It’s only a tentative selection in an ultra-competitive race where all seven runners hold solid chances.

With World Hurdle winner More Of That absent from the Stayer’s Hurdle this looks like a good opportunity for At Fishers Cross or Zarkander to finally break their duck this season.  I do not rate the chances of the others that highly except for Coral Cup winner Whisper, but it’s a guess as to whether he gets the extra 3 furlongs.  I have backed At Fishers Cross @7/4 to uphold the form and beat Zarkander again.

Next up is the 18 runner Listed Handicap Chase at 3.25pm and again I will be pretty cautious.  This is hardly a race to boost the coffers prior to the “Big One” at 4.15pm but it does look like a cracking each-way race.  With all firms paying 4 places I have had a few quid on a slightly risky proposition.  Johns Spirit ran a cracker at Cheltenham but the handicapper may have his measure and he might need to come down a few pounds before winning again.  He looks sure to run his race though.  Unioniste is another sure to go well and he lugs top weight of 11st 12lbs.  He might well defy that but I will give him a miss.  The one I have backed requires a bit of a leap of faith.  Duke Of Lucca @16/1 is really well handicapped off 134 when you consider he was winning races off 10lbs higher 18 months ago and his 4^th in the Cheltenham Cross Country race this year was not a bad effort.  I’m hoping for place money rather than anything else as I will be surprised if he wins.

On to the Grand National itself and this is truly one of the highlights of the sporting year, irrespective of whether you are a racing fan or not.  I could spend the next 20 minutes going through the pluses and minuses of each and every runner, together with the trends and profiles of previous winners, but instead I will cut to the chase and go straight into my (many) selections for the main event.  I have opted to place all my bets with Bet365 using their amazing offer of giving you half your stake back for every each-way bet you place.  From the top of the market I have backed Teaforthree @8/1.  Hardly original but he is primed to run a big race and even if he gives way on the run in like last year, with a clean round of jumping he should be in the first 5 home.  At bigger prices I have backed Pineau De Re @20/1 and Chance Du Roy @33/1.  Both have a nice weight of 10st 6lb and a great chance of finishing the race, which in itself is no mean feat.  Hawkes Point must put a disappointing run in the Haydock trial behind him.  If fit and well and back to his best then the 40/1 looks great value.  Big Shu @25/1 is interesting as he stays all day and may plod into the place money.  Finally I have backed another dour stayer and sound jumper in Mountainous @40/1 although his chances would be even better were it to rain buckets overnight.  Those are my six (!) and hopefully the winner is lurking in there somewhere!

The Handicap Hurdle for amateurs and conditionals is the next race and only one favourite has won in the seven runnings to date.  With a field of 22 set to go to post this looks like another each-way race.  Having backed half the field in the Grand National I have just backed one here and that is top weight Court Minstrel @16/1  .He has some decent form in the book and has a had a 3 month break since finishing 4^th to The New One in the Stan James Hurdle at Cheltenham in December.  The final race is a bumper and I never really bet in these races so, having backed six in the Grand National it makes sense to sit this one out.

Aintree Day 3 selections:

1.30pm Oscar Hoof @6/1 and Kayf Moss @14/1

2.05pm Balder Success @7/2

2.50pm At Fishers Cross @7/4

3.25pm Duke Of Lucca @16/1 (each-way, 4 places)

4.15pm Teaforthree @8/1, Pineau De Re @20/1, Big Shu @25/1, Chance Du Roy @33/1, Hawkes Point @40/1 and Mountainous @40/1 (all each-way, 5 places)

5.10pm Court Minstrel 16/1 (each-way, 4 places)

5.45pm No Bet

Day 1 got off to a spectacular start with Guitar Pete being delivered from nowhere to first by Paul Carberry in a sensational ride.  My picks Activial and Hawk High finished down the field.  Clarcam was given an honourable mention in this column and ran a blinder to finish second.  With hindsight he was probably the each-way bet of the race.  In the Betfred Bowl, First Lieutenant had every chance heading to the last flight but was beaten by better horses on the day, so no complaints from me and hats off to Paul Nicholls and the connections of Silviniaco Conti.

The Aintree Hurdle was a no-bet race but what a race it was!  The prices said this would be a procession and it certainly looked that way as The New One cruised into the lead on the bridle.  Rock On Ruby and Diakali had other ideas and it turned into a three-way head bobber at the finish with The New One just prevailing.  For the record, Irish Saint did not outrun his price.  Warne provided me with a first winner of the festival @9/2 in the Foxhunters.  Sam Whaley-Cohen and his mount were pestered constantly by loose horses all the way round and on more than one occasion I thought it would cost them the race.  Sam did a great steering job to be fair and it was nice to be off the mark.  Island Life finished 12^th at 100/1, but at least he made it over the line.

Claret Cloak ran a good race in third in the Red Rum Handicap Chase, whilst Oiseau De Nuit finished a never nearer 6^th and I think I’ve backed the old boy for the last time.  Uxizandre did exactly what I hoped he would do and held on well from the front to land the spoils.  Sometimes taking an early price is a good thing and the 5/1 on Thursday night was a cracking price as he was sent off 11/4.  Two winners on the board on Day 1 are more than I could have hoped for and things were rounded off nicely with Jetson yet again performing admirably in a big field handicap to grab some place money.  Day 2 looks nigh on impossible so I’m glad we are off to a decent start.  Here goes anyway………..

On to Day 2 and we kick off with Novice Hurdle at 2.00pm, a race won last year by My Tent Or Yours.  Those horses that placed in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham have a good record in this and that leads us straight to Josses Hill and Sgt Reckless who ran 2^nd and 4^th respectively in that race.  With Henderson winning 3 of the last 4 renewals I am more than happy to back Josses Hill @2/1 with William Hill’s money back second place concession.  The interesting runner is Baltimore Rock who won the Imperial Cup at Sandown, beating a useful one in Gassin Golf.  He races here off 6lb higher and could make the step up into Graded races with ease.  There again he might not and I will stick with Josses Hill as my only bet in the race.

The Novice Chase at 2.30pm has a small, but fascinating, field of six going to post.  All six ran at Cheltenham.  O’Faolains Boy won the RSA Chase, the same race in which Many Clouds was brought down by Don Cossack (and you may remember I had backed both of those!) with Just A Par back in 7^th.  Wonderful Charm ran 5^th in the JLT at the festival and Hollywell won the 3m 1f Handicap Chase on the opening day.  All of that makes this race difficult to assess.  Only 2lbs separate Hollywell, O’Faolains Boy and Wonderful Charm in the official ratings which further adds spice to proceedings.  At a bigger price, Many Clouds only has 2 ½ lengths to make up on O’Faolains Boy on their Ascot running.  However, gut feeling is that O’Faolains Boy has improved considerably.  One interesting statistic is that 20 of the last 23 winners had already won at the 3 mile trip or higher.  That leaves three in Hollywell, O’Faolains Boy and Just A Par.  I think this is more of a race to watch than get heavily involved in and Holywell @10/3 is a tentative selection.

Next we have the Grade 1 Melling Chase.  This has been a punters race for sure in the last few years with the first or second favourite winning 14 of the last 19 renewals.  I thought Module ran a good race in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham and that race has been a good pointer in the past.  I’ve taken the 9/2.  Wishfull Thinking has Aintree form figures of 0F1226 and also ran well in the Champion Chase and he should be there or thereabouts.  Module @9/2 and Wishfull Thinking @7/1 are my 2 against the field.

Thirty go to post for the Topham Chase.  In a race like this it is probably more about getting a run for my money than genuine expectations of finding the winner.  One who fits the bill on that score is Big Fella Thanks @20/1 (PaddyPower, 5 places) who has completed the course in 5 of 6 attempts over these fences.  Another who should run well at a price is Rebel Rebellion @20/1 (BetVictor, 5 places), winner of the Grand Sefton Chase in December.  He has run 2 solid races since that win and I’m hopeful of a big run.  Tatenen ran a cracker at the festival but has a poor completion rate around Aintree whilst Champion Court, You Must Know Me and Your Busy could all go well at a big price (all three around 25/1 to 20/1).

Eighteen line-up for The Sefton Novices Hurdle and things do not get any easier from a betting perspective.  It’s a 3 miler (won last year by At Fishers Cross) so I’m looking for a proven stayer here rather than an improver who may or may not stay.  That may be foolish but I will find out at around 4.25pm on Friday.  Seeyouatmidnight is a worthy favourite, has the best form on offer and stays well.  What’s not to like?  9/2 is a short price but it’s one I’ve taken as it is my only bet of the race.  Honourable mentions go to Walk On Al @33/1 who could run well at a huge price if the headgear sparks the necessary required improvement and Tagrita @12/1 could also be involved, receiving a 7lb mare’s allowance.  I have thought about backing them both but I will just stick with Seeyouatmidnight @9/2.

Just to make things even harder, the next race is the 22 runner Alder Hey Charity Handicap Hurdle run over 2 ½ miles.  Attaglance must have a good chance despite top weight.  He won the Martin Pipe in 2012 as well as taking this race in that same year.  Campaigned over the larger obstacles since then he was very unlucky not to have won at the Cheltenham festival this year.  I think he’s a cracking each-way bet.  At a bigger price, Like Minded could go well if he bounces back from his last poor effort.  I am always prepared to forgive a horse one bad run and this horse ran third in the Lanzaraote, beating Spirit Of Shankly who was a heavily backed into near favouritism for the 3 mile handicap hurdle that brought proceedings to close on Day 1 of this meeting.  Attaglance @12/1 and Like Minded @25/1 are my selections.

To finish we have the 20 runner Mares Only NH Flat race.  If ever there was a no-bet race it is this one.  I really would be wasting my time and yours trying to get to the bottom of this race and I would much rather skip this and have an extra bet on the Grand National.

Aintree Day 2 selections:

2.00pm Josses Hill @2/1

2.30pm Hollywell @10/3

3.05pm Module @9/2 and Wishfull Thinking @7/1

3.40pm Big Fella Thanks @20/1 & Rebel Rebellion @20/1 (both each-way, 5 places)

4.15pm Seeyouatmidnight @9/2

4.50pm Attaglance @12/1 and Like Minded @25/1 (both each-way, 5 places)

5.25pm No Bet

Saturday came and went in a flash and it was a thoroughly enjoyable days’ racing.  So let’s reflect on how my wagers fared.  In the Dubai Gold Cup, Cavalryman had his run blocked not once, not twice but three times and by the time he got out and flew home he failed to catch the leader by a head.  Now I know a lot of people who backed Cavalryman may be cursing their luck or criticising the jockey, but this is racing and sometimes the cards just do not fall right.  Was he the best horse in the race?  Yes, undoubtedly.  Would he have won with a clear passage?  Yes, he would.  Was I paid out at 5/2?  No.  These things happen in racing and you have to take the rough with the smooth.  I backed the right horse, but it wasn’t to be.

Graphic showed a steely determination and dug deep to win the Doncaster Mile but this was one race I had decided to sit out from a betting perspective.  A long wait then until my big fancy Jack Dexter ran in the Cammidge Trophy at 2.40pm.  Having watched the Morning Line I was not as confident as I was when I placed the bet on Friday, given that the panel of studio guests were keen to take him on with Richard Hannon’s Maureen and were making a big deal out of his 5lb penalty.  Well, it turns out they were right and wrong!  Jack Dexter ran very, very flat but so did market rivals Tropics and Morning Line fancy Maureen.  It was left to the two outsiders of the field to fight it out and Dinkum Diamond led from pillar to post to land the prize ahead of Captain Ramius.  It will be interesting to see how the form of this race works out in the forthcoming season.

If Jack Dexter was a letdown then Shea Shea was a soul-destroyer.  True he didn’t exactly fall out of the stalls but he wasn’t exactly off to a flyer either.  Not even a horse of his stature can go from last to first when the pace being set up front is truly phenomenal.  In the end he did well to finish as close as he did but no one was catching the winner.  I was very impressed with the winner Amber Sky though.  Three races down and no return.  Would things get any better?

In a simple word yes!  I love Brae Hill as much as he loves Doncaster.  What a horse, what a ride and the 8 year old dug deep when it really mattered.  As a bonus, Farlow grabbed some place money in 3^rd @ 14/1 and he is one to follow this season seeing as this was his first crack at 1 mile.  With a 10/1 winner in the bag I can afford to relax a little and really enjoy the rest of the racing.  Just as well really as the Lincoln was a big disappointment with One More Word failing to make it into the stalls, Tres Corons never featuring and Gabrials Kaka folding tamely.  I think Tullius was one to take out of the race and I’ve got him down as one to follow this season.  That was it for the domestic action and a bit of a wait until the Sheema Classic in Meydan, just long enough to see my football accumulator go down the pan.

Even though he only finished second, I think Cirrus Des Aigles was one of my better bets on the day.  Dismissed out of hand on the Morning Line, I thought he ran an absolute blinder sent off at 9/1.  He obviously failed to live up to expectations last season but he still ran some good races and showed in the Sheema Classic he retains all his ability.  The winner, Japanese superstar Gentildonna was a class apart and won a shade cosily.  Magician never threatened and the best horse clearly won the race.

I had already backed Red Cadeaux for the Dubai World Cup at 25/1 and decided to have a couple of quid each way on Ron The Greek at 30s on Betfair (and 7s to place in the top three), only to watch him drift out into the 40s.  I never quite know what to make of it when that happens, sometimes I chuck a couple extra on at the bigger price but I decided instead that it was a sign he was friendless on the exchanges.  Neither horse was ever going to win once African Story and Mukhadram kicked clear and the day’s betting ended rather tamely.  All in all I ended up a few quid in front thanks entirely to Brae Hill and Farlow!  I’ll be back later next week with my selections and thoughts for all 3 days of the Aintree meeting, including the big one itself the Grand National.

Nick Hardman gives us his thoughts for the first meeting of the flat season:

Some fantastic racing action on Saturday as the UK flat season kicks off with the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster.  As if that wasn’t enough, we also have the world’s richest race meeting in the Dubai World Cup.  I’ll be giving you my thoughts on the top races from these meetings together with a list of my fancies who will be burdened no doubt by carrying my wagers.

First up is the Doncaster Mile at 2.05pm and just 9 entries are set to go to post as I write this.  I think the 4 at the top of the market all have a chance of winning but at 2/1, 11/4, 5/1 and 7/1 there is not much too choose between them.  Marco Botti has had 3 winners from his last 9 runners at this meeting and Guest Of Honour @5/1 could be worth a bet but I will give this one a swerve as in truth I’d be guessing rather than using my better judgement.

The Cammidge Trophy at 2.45pm could well go the way of Jack Dexter and the softer the better for him.  He shoulders a 5lb penalty in an attempt to gain back-to-back victories in this event but I think he is a class act and rarely runs a bad race.  There is not much juice in the price @9/4 but I am happy to take that with William Hill offering 2^nd place refunds on all C4 races.

On to the Spring Mile considered the consolation race for those horses that did not make the cut for the Lincoln.  With 22 runners I will be backing 3 against the field.  Richard Fahey has a great record at this meeting with 40% of his handicap runners either winning or making the frame.  He saddles 2 here and I want them both on side.  First up is Brae Hill, a horse who won the Lincoln in 2012 and was 3^rd in 2013.  The best time to catch him is early season and with course, distance and going all no problem then I have taken the 10/1.  Fahey’s other runner is Farlow who is stepping up to a mile for the first time.  He signed off 2013 with a good 5^th on soft in the Ayr Bronze Cup.  He is an interesting runner and worth a couple of quid each-way @14/1.  Finally we have Global Village who was runner up to Levitate in the Lincoln last year.  He goes well fresh and is suited by the hustle and bustle of a big handicap field.  I have taken the early 12/1 and all three bets have been placed with best odds guaranteed bookmakers.

On to the main event and pre-race favourite Captain Cat is doubtful due to the soft going.  I have read up on some trends and in a race as competitive as this I have used those to pick some likely sorts.  First off I want a horse rated in the 90s but that only whittles the field down to 17.  Second, I’m going for the age angle and focussing on 4 and 5 year old horses who account for 75% of the winners since 1980.  From those making the cut I fancy 2 who I will be backing.  For the win only it will be Richard Fahey’s Gabrials Kaka.  There’s a lot to like about this horse. He is a 4 year old carrying less than 9 stone, is saddled by a trainer with a great record in this race and he actually has form over further than 1 mile which could be an asset if the ground gets even softer.  At a bigger price Charlie Hills’ One Word More has bags of potential and fits the age and weight trend nicely.  One that doesn’t is Tres Coronas who is a 7 year old.  However, he seemed to take a huge leap forward last year and finished 3^rd in last year’s Cambridgeshire and 3^rd in the John Smith’s Cup.  Interestingly, this horse is stepping down in trip having raced predominantly at 10 furlongs for the past few years.  At 20/1 he is worth a speculative punt as his stamina may see him pick off some weary finishers and grab a bit of place money.

I can’t let the Meydan World Cup night pass without having a few bets to small stakes.  This is always difficult as it is an international event so collateral form is thin on the ground and we have horses racing on the artificial tapeta surface, some for the first time.  Four of the races are on the turf course and the going will most likely be pretty fast!  These will be fun bets more than anything just to give the viewing some additional spice.  I’m going to give the Godolphin Mile a swerve and go straight to the Dubai Gold Cup and the highly unoriginal selection is Cavalryman @5/2.  Last year’s winner loves Meydan and looks sure to make a bold bid to retain his crown.  His form figures at Meydan in the last 2 years read 2311 and I’m sure he will be there or thereabouts.  The UAE Derby is another one I will by-pass as the top two take a chunk of the market at 2/1 and 3/1 and I don’t know enough about the other runners to really be optimistic with an each-way play.

Next up is the Al Quoz Sprint and I’m backing trail-blazing favourite Shea Shea to win.  Apparently he is as good as ever this season and with C&D form he gets the nod over market rival Amber Sky.  I will sit out the Dubai Golden Shaheen and the Dubai Duty Free and have a punt on the penultimate race, the Dubai Sheema Classic which features a cast of stars including Magician, Cirrus Des Aigles, Gentildonna, Dunaden and Mount Athos.  I do fancy Magician’s chances and at 3/1 I have been tempted to have a nibble.  Call me mad but I’m also going to have a few quid on Cirrus Des Aigles.  Clearly he only showed his talent in snatches last season, but he had previously given Frankel a real good race in his swansong at Ascot’s Champions Day meeting in 2012.  That form and his second to Farrh in the same race last year would give him every chance here.  At 15/2 it’s another nibble for me.

Finally on to the world’s richest race, the Dubai World Cup.  This is no-brainer for me.  Red Cadeaux @25/1.  I love this unsung hero who has amassed over £4 million of prize money.  Second in this last year, second in the Melbourne Cup, this globe-trotter has multiple placed finishes in Group races all around the world.  What is there not to like?

So there you go and below are a list of my fancies this weekend.  As ever, if you are having a bet yourself then all the best and be lucky!

Doncaster 2.40pm – Jack Dexter @9/4

Doncaster 3.15pm – Brae Hill @10/1, Global Village @12/1 and Farlow @14/1 (all each-way)

Doncaster 3.50pm – Gabrials Kaka 8/1 (win only), One Word More @14/1 and Tres Coronas @20/1 each-way

Meydan 1.45pm – Cavalryman @5/2

Meydan 3.03pm – Shea Shea @11/8

Meydan 5.17pm – Magician @3/1 and Cirrus Des Aigles @15/2

Meydan 6.05pm – Red Cadeaux @25/1 (each-way)