27 Runner Mad Dash anyone?

Posted on September 20, 2013 by Kieran

I’ve got a couple of things I want to cover today so lets get straight into it with a look at tomorrow’s Gold Cup at Ayr.

The Ayr Gold Cup 21-09-13

With a 27 runner field charging along a muddy 6 furlongs,  we really are setting ourselves a hell of a task to find the winner. However, we’re getting some very juicy prices if we can solve the puzzle so let’s give it a go!

In our usual fashion let’s whittle down that massive number of runners to a more manageable group through the use of recent trends.

There is a strong age trend in this race. All of the last 10 winners have been aged 4 to 6 and I think we can reasonably safely exclude any animal that falls outside that age range:

HAWKEYETHENOO, CAPTAIN RAIMIUS, HASOPOP, HEAVENS GUEST, REGAL PARADE

There is also a strong trend on weight with all of the last 8 renewals being won by a horse carrying 9 stone or more (and everything that finished in the first 4 in the last 4 years was carrying 9 stone or more) This allows us to exclude:

RED DUBAWI, GABRIELS LAD, KHUBALA, JOE EILE, LIGHTNING CLOUD, DUBAWI SOUNDS, LOUIS THE PIOUS, OUR JONATHON and MAJESTIC MYLES

The last 8 winners were all had an official rating of between 97 and 105. I’m happy to knock out anything that falls outside that range:

JACK DEXTER, HAMZA, TROPICS, HOOF IT

Finally, a recent run has proved to be very important ion this race as 9 of the last 10 winners all had a run within the last 35 days. Thsi allows us to remove:

DUKE OF FIRENZE and LOVER MAN.

We’ve now cut the field from 27 to just 7 so let’s take a more in depth look at the remainder.

SPINATRIX – I really like this horse and was gutted to see him just run out of it when our selection in the Great St Wilfrid in August. He has a 2lb pull in the weights with Baccarat for that neck defeat but I have to say, I don’t like his chances as much this time. He’s drawn in the car park and results yesterday ( as well as over recent years) make me think that there is a slight draw bias here for those drawn mid to low. other things that are not in his favour include a claiming jockey which has proved a negative in this race and the fact that he’s never won a race with more than 13 runners.  I’m not saying he can’t win but he has to overcome a lot there and I will be limiting myself to a very small each way interest bet.

MASS RALLY – I’m quite sweet on this ones chances based on his course and distance win back in May. I can’t really see why this one is trading at 20/1 generally and Jack Dexter at 8/1 when you consider there was only a rapidly diminishing head between them over the distance at levels in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle. He also seems to like a bit of cut in the ground and it looks like he will get that here. I’m taking a reasonable chunk of the 20/1 available each way at William Hill who are paying 5 places.

HIGHLAND COLORI – Has a decent enough chance but won’t be carrying my money. Whenever he’s tackled a really big field like this he’s come up short and I also think 6f is a little too sharp for him even with the soft ground. I’d want a bit better than the currently available 16/1 to take a punt.

HUMIDOR – Another one I’ll be leaving out based on a very high draw. I also think the distance and field size won’t suit.

BOGART – he has a chance and I think anything better than 25/1 about his chances represents a bit of value.

NOCTURN – I think being drawn too low here is also a disadvantage. taking that into account along with the claimer and a liking for firmer ground than he will encounter here, I’ll be leaving him out of my bets.

BACCARAT – I think he has every chance, he’s lightly raced and I think there is more to come from this progressive type. The ground is a concern but I think he has a lot in his favour and I will be getting involved at around 10/1.

Please remember, this is a very hard race to figure out so don’t go mad – I will just be having smallish bets and I will be holding off until I see if there is any strong draw bias in the Bronze and Silver Cup renewals.

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Last, but certainly not least today, I want to tell you about a nice chunk of freeness that we can all avail ourselves of.

My esteemed colleague Nick Hardman has been contributing to MYBP for a few months now. That’s not all he’s been doing though.

During that time he has also been proofing his football goals bets to the lovely chaps over at Betting School. And he’s been doing it with an awful lot of success!

In the 2 months he has been proofing over there, he’s racked up 181 points profit.

After a stellar performance like that, you won’t be surprised to learn that today marks the launch of his new football tipping service, Goal Market Profits.

Goal Market Profits

Best of all, Nick is so confident you will like his service, you can try it out for a full month before you pay a single penny! Seriously, we’d be mad not to snap it up!

You’ll need a Paypal account to register and if you like the service, it will cost £29.97 a month after the free month. If not, just cancel and you will be charged nothing. Can’t say fairer than that.

Claim your month free trial here

Have a great weekend

Kieran

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The Portland Handicap

Posted on September 13, 2013 by Kieran

I’d really have liked to concentrate on the St Leger today but it’s a viciously competitive renewal and you could make a good case for any one of half a dozen of them to be honest. For what it’s worth, I think Excess Knowledge is a reasonable favourite and a reasonable price at 7/2 generally, Galileo Rock has strong claims if he takes his chance and of the rest I think Cap O’ Rushes offers a chunk of value at 20/1

With that out of the way, let’s look instead in a little more detail at the big handicap of the day, the Portland Handicap at 2.40pm. At first glance this looks far more difficult to work out than the St leger – an almost impossible puzzle. However, I think we can fairly easily reduce the field to the more likely contenders and we are getting some juicy prices to take our chance here.

Portland Handicap 14-09-13

There are some strong trends in the race.

All of the last 10 winners were rated 100 or below. On that basis we can get rid of:

DEFINIGHTLY, BOGART, MAGICAL MACEY and STEPS.

9 of the last 10 winners had their last run within 28 days or less. This allows us to exclude:

ELUSIVITY, AJJAADD and BURWAAZ

All of the last 10 winners had previously won a race with 14+ runners. So let’s get rid of:

INXILE, RACY, and ANGELS WILL FALL

None of the last 9 winners (only 9 of the last 10 were run at Doncaster) were drawn 7 to 12 and only 2 of those 9 were drawn 1 to 6. I’m happy to stick with those drawn 13 and above. This allows us to exclude:

CONFESSIONAL, ZERO MONEY, EL VIENTO, PRODIGALITY, ANCIENT CROSS, ADDICTIVE DREAM, OUR JONATHON and MONSIEUR CHEVALIER

We are now reduced to a shortlist of 4:

DOC HAY, SECRET WITNESS, DOCTOR PARKES, BARNET FAIR.

To be honest, I’m not inclined to drill down any further than that. They are all big enough prices to turn a decent profit if any of them win (or a couple of them place) and  I will be having small each way interests on all 4 – with a slight preference for Barnet Fair who looks to have plenty in his favour.

Have a great weekend and be lucky whatever you are backing!

Kieran

 

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Old Borough Cup

Posted on September 6, 2013 by Kieran

Friday has arrived again and it’s time to take a look at one of the big Saturday handicaps. I’ve plumped for the Old Borough cup at Haydock rather than one of the classier races, simply because I like the shape of this one better!

Old Borough Cup, 3.15pm Haydock 07-09-13

Killer trend 1:

All of the last 10 winners have previously won at 1m4f to 1m6f. This allows us to exclude:

ORIENTAL FOX, TROPICAL BEAT and CLOWANCE ESTATE

( I was tempted to leave Tropical Beat in despite him failing this trend but he seems to make a habit of coming 2nd when he goes beyond 10 furlongs. I’m hoping the he continues to do so!)

Killer Trend 2:

9 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for between 14 and 28 days. Now I think we need to give some leeway on that but I feel compelled to exclude:

PALLASATOR (344 days), GASSIN GOLF (368) and NANTON (57)

(Regarding PALLASATOR I’d probably give him the benefit of the doubt were it not for a dirty scope a couple of weeks ago and ground that looks far from ideal. This feels to me like Sir Mark is desperate to get this one to the track! I’m happy to be against him – particularly at 9/2!)

Killer Trend 3:

9 of the last 10 winners had between 4 and 7 runs in the current year. This allows us to exclude:

KIAMA BAY (8), PLATINUM (11), SCATTER DICE (12) and COUSIN KHEE (10)

Killer Trend 4:

8 of the last 10 winners had won at least 1 race in the current season. This allows us to exclude:

SURAJ and BLUE BAJAN

That leaves us with a short list of 4 which we’ll now look at in a little more detail:

SEMEEN – This one has an awful lot in his favour including Cumani’s record in the race, recent form, jockey and the draw. The 43 days off the track is a slight concern but that won’t stop me backing him to win at the generally available 7/1

ITLAAQ – 7 years old is getting slightly long in the tooth for this race and recent form has been well below the level needed to win this. Despite his decent run in this last year, I’m happy to leave him alone.

POYLE THOMAS – My other big fancy for the race. Another one with an awful lot in his favour and I’ve taken a chunk of the 8/1 available with Bet 365.

WYBORNE – With his sole win  coming in a lowly maiden at Wolverhampton back in February and precious little form of value since, he’ll be running unencumbered by my shekels.

In summary

I like SEMEEN and POYLE THOMAS and will be backing both to win.

Let us know what you’ll be backing and why in the comments section below!

Have a great weekend!

Kieran

 

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Trainers to Follow in September

Posted on August 30, 2013 by Kieran

I had intended to do a big race preview today but I found the fare on offer so lacking in inspiration and value that I changed my mind. Instead, I thought I would bury my head in the books in the hope I could identify some profitable trainer angles for when the leaves start to fall.

Henry Candy

He may look a bit of a buffoon in that hat but Mr Candy has been around a long time and certainly knows one end of a horse from the other. Sadly, as a reasonably well known and respected figure in the game, we won’t turn a profit blindly backing his runners -doing that since 2007 would have resulted in a loss of just over 10% of stakes betting at industry SP.

However, what punters don’t seem to have cottoned on to is just how much sharper his string seems to be in September. His figures have been boosted  by a 50/1 winner at Newbury in September 2012 but he would still haver turned a profit since 2007 without that one. The full figures are below:

Runs

Wins

S/R %

P/L at ISP

152

19

12.5%

+57.25 pts

Now, those figures are pretty good on their own but the strike rate is a concern to me along with the fact that there were a couple of small losing years since 2007.

Drilling down a bit more carefully into those numbers reveals a couple of areas in which we would be best to concentrate. Mr Candy’s record in higher class racing during the period has not been stellar so we should concentrate on races in Class 4 and below. In addition, he seems to do better with his middle distance runners so we will concentrate on those running between 7f and 1m2f. The revised figures are in the table below:

Runs

Wins

S/R %

P/L at ISP

58

11

18.97%

+93.25pts

In addition, we can improve those figures by backing each selection to 1 point each way (when enough runners to do so), producing the following figures:

Runs

Wins

Placed

P/L at ISP

Place Strike %

58

11

26

+118.77pts

44.83%

Very nice. A reasonable number of bets and a place strike rate which means we’ll get paid out on a regular basis! To summarise the angle:

Henry Candy runners in Class 4 – 7 races from 7f to 1m2f in the month of September.

 

Tony Coyle

We’re right at the other end of the spectrum with Mr Coyle – he’s only been training since 2011. However, it does appear he shares Mr Candy’s affection for silly hats – and for the month of September.

His overall record is poorish showing a loss of -34.67 points at industry SP since 2011 (even worse when you consider that he’d made a profit of +62.75 points by the end of 2011!). He’s had a particularly painful time of it so far this year but 3 winners in the past 14 days might indicate that the tide is starting to turn and things have been very good for him over the last couple of Septembers. The table below shows performance in those 2 months:

Runs

Wins

SR %

P/L at ISP

28

6

21.43%

+25.88 points

It’s also worth noting that he hasn’t done well with his sprinters so I’ll be concentrating on his runners at 1m+. That gets rid of 7 losing runners, increasing profits to +32.88 points with a win strike rate of 28.57%

Things can be further improved by backing all selections to 1 point each way where possible to do so:

Runs

Wins

Placed

P/L at ISP

Win&Place %

21

6

10

+45.12 points

47.62%

Clearly we’re not dealing with a huge number of bets here so we need to exercise caution but I, for one, will be paying close attention to Mr Coyle’s runners in September. To summarise the angle:

Tony Coyle flat runners at 1m or above in the month of September

That’s all from me today so have a great weekend and be lucky, whatever you are backing!

Kieran

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The Ebor Handicap 24-08-13

Posted on August 23, 2013 by Kieran

I think we can count ourselves a little unlucky in the Great St Wilfrid last weekend – our main bet in the race, Spinatrix, touched off in the final strides by the progressive Fahey hotpot Baccarat. Annoyingly Baccarat was only the 2nd favourite to win the race in a dozen years.

However, we’re not doing much wrong when our main bet goes down by only a neck so I thought I’d get straight back on the horse for tomorrow’s big Ebor Handicap on the Knavesmire. Obviously, I won’t literally be getting on any of the horses – I pity the poor horse staggering around with my bulk rooting him in place! With that cleared up, on with the analysis.

The Ebor Handicap

As usual let’s try and cut down the number of runners with the use of some strong trends from the last 10 years or so.

It’s interesting to note that 8 of the last 10 renewals have been won from a box numbered in the highest 7 and no winner has come from lower than box 10 since 2004. I think that’s a fairly strong stat and I’m happy to exclude anything coming from stalls 1 to 9.

This allows us to get rid of: Number Theory, Opinion, Montaser, Oriental Fox, Tropical Beat, Handsome Man, Bishop Roko and Saptapadi.  I’m also happy to exclude Blue Surf drawn 10 as we have nothing now drawn in 2.

The next trend is on age which tells us that nothing older than 6 has won the race for more than 30 years. This allows us to get rid of Steps to Freedom and Hanoverian Baron.

Interestingly, in the last 10 years we’ve had no winners with an official rating above 102 so I’m happy to get rid of: Sun Central and Sheikzayedroad.

Furthermore all winners in the last 10 years had a run within 55 days which is a bad stat for Tiger Cliff, who I’m happy to remove on that basis.

Also interestingly, all of the last 10 winners had won more than 4 handicaps and 9 of them at at least one win at 1m4f+. This removes Genzy.

So – the final 5. Let’s look at them in a little more detail:

GUARANTEE – I have to say recent form puts me firmly off this one – all of the last 16 winners had palced 3 or better in one of their last 3 races.  Taking that into account, I can’t have him.

CARAVAN ROLLS ON – I think this one is in with a shout but, considering  his lowish draw and the 43 days off the track, I’d like a little bigger than the 9/1 generally available. At that price, others make more appeal but I’d probably have an interest on this one at 12/1 or better.

TED VEALE – A very interesting runner and one I will be backing. He’s hard fit and has one of the shrewdest trainers either side of the Irish Sea. In addition Tony martin, sure knows how to rattle up a quick string of wins with a horse! Only his age is against him and I’m happy to overlook that. I’ll be backing this one at the 9/1 available with Tote and Betfred.

NO HERETIC – I think this one offers a big slice of value at 20/1 with VC, 18/1 elsewhere. I think he’ll be suited by a drop back in distance  and I’m struggling to see why he’s being offered at those kind of prices. He’s weighted to turn things around with Highland Castle and Darren Egan is value for his 3lb claim and a claimer up top is certainly not a negative in this race. I’ll be getting involved each way at 18/1 or better.

Highland Castle – I can’t write him off – not when he can be backed at 33/1. In with a squeak and I’ll have a small each way interest.

Summary

My best bet is TED VEALE and I’ll be backing him to win at 9/1. I’ll also be having small each way interests on NO HERETIC and HIGHLAND CASTLE with slight preference for the first of those.

 

And finally today….

I read Value Backing by Carl Nicholson a few months ago now and found it a thoroughly enjoyable read with some interesting and thought provoking insights into his method of finding value.

The book is available on Amazon and normally costs £7.71.

Imagine my delight however, when I discovered that for this week only he’s been giving it away completely free!

The offer ends today but you can still grab your free copy if you get over there today. Tomorrow, it reverts to £7.71. Even if you don’t have a Kindle, you can download it straight to your PC.

Go and grab your free copy!

Have a great weekend, whatever you are backing.

Kieran

 

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Great St Wilfrid Handicap

Posted on August 16, 2013 by Kieran

It’s been a few weeks since I posted on the site myself and, as usual, you have my apologies. I don’t feel quite as bad about it as I have done in the past because, as you know, I’ve been more than ably deputised by a variety of resident and guest writers during that time.

The success of the guest writers means that over the coming months I will be introducing more and more new features to the site to try and create a real racing community resource here.

Speaking of racing resources,  I REALLY hope you’ve been following the Daily Pro bets since their inception in April – there is a nice, solid profit  building with those and I can see them being a very profitable resource in the long term.

They represent everything I like in a bet – priced so you can get a decent lump on with a high strike rate and offering a decent edge. Best of all they are completely free!

I release them between 10.50am and 11.30am each day and they are not to be missed  – seriously! Today’s selection is here

Of the other new features, it seems Nick’s Punting Diary is building quite a following – you can read the latest instalment here – and I can see why. It’s a feature I look forward to reading myself each week.

With that in mind, I’ll also be adding more featured writers in the coming months covering a variety of sports and how to bet them profitably!

We’re slowly building the site towards where I want it to be but there is a long way to go as yet.

I’m in the process of putting together a survey for next week and I would be most grateful if everybody could spare me five minutes to answer a few questions when it’s completed. I’ll act on the feedback I receive and hopefully Make Your Betting Pay will be a better site for all of us!

Any comments, suggestions, criticisms etc etc would be warmly received and taken into consideration/acted upon where possible! Tell me what you think in the comments box below.

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Great St Wilfrid Handicap – 17th August 2013

I thought I’d take an in depth look at Ripon’s premier event in an effort to 1) try and pocket a few quid and 2) tune myself up for some of those big handicaps at York next week!

So here goes:

As always with these big field handicaps, we need to look to past trends to whittle the field down to a manageable number.

In the last 10 years, only one winner of the race has been drawn higher than 11 ( and that was Pepper Lane in 2011 – not the only time that horse is the exception to the rule in this race!)

Luckily for us, this rather neatly excludes nearly half the field from our reckoning, allowing us to exclude: Hoof It, Prodigality, Secret Witness, Confessional, Dr Red Eye, El Viento, Summerinthecity, Zacynthus and Thunderball.

Very nice indeed!

The next trend is one on age – No horse older than 7 has won the race in the last 1o years which allows us to get rid of: Borderlescott (very sad to see the old warrior go but at 11 years old he would be a massive trendbuster) and Regal Parade.

It’s also worth noting that there has been no 3 year old winner of the race in the last 10 years.   However, I’d rate that as interesting rather than conclusive as there have been very few 3 year old runners in that time

 The other strong trend for the race is a fitness one. Horses with  a LTO run within the last 15 days provide 9 of the winners in the last 10 years. (Again, the exception to this rule is Pepper Lane who won last year after a break of nearly 2 months).

Sticking to the 15 day rule allows us to rule out: Captain Ramius, Rodrigo de Torres, Baccarat and Dick Bos.

That leaves us with a shortlist of 5 and they are:

Louis the Pious

Spinatrix

Blaine

Polski Max

Pearl Ice

Now let’s look at those 5 in a bit more detail.

LOUIS THE PIOUS – A decent third in the race last year,  and now in the hands of David O’Meara who is 2 from 2 in the race over the last 2 years! I wouldn’t want to put anybody off him but I have a niggling feeling that his off the pace running style will play against him here. I’ll be backing him but only as a cover bet to return stakes.

SPINATRIX – This is the one I really like in the race. Fresh from a battling half length victory over Pearl Ice just last week over course and distance, I think this one is the value bet of the race at 9/1 with Tote, Betfred and VC.

BLAINE – There is plenty to like about this one but the 3 year old trend is against him. Combine that with two very poor efforts of late and I’m happy to let him run on this occasion. Watch him hose up now! (Perhaps a very small each way cover bet at 40/1 wouldn’t go amiss)

POLSKI MAX – The 3 year old trend is against this one also and I can’t shake the nagging feeling that this horse is a lot better on softer ground. Possibly a very small each way cover bet at the generally available 33/1

PEARL ICE – Weighted to turn the tables on Spinatrix today, I’m a little bit concerned that he was outbattled by that one LTO and it makes me very nervous. Nonetheless, this is second best in the race and I will  be having an interest at 11/1 with Coral.

So to summarise, my bet of the race is:

Spinatrix @ 9/1 (Tote, Betfred, VC)

Pearl Ice (Next best) @ 11/1 Coral

The rest of the shortlist I will be covering with insurance bets.

Have a great weekend and be lucky whatever you are backing!

 

Kieran

 

 

 

 

 

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Glorious Goodwood – Day 5

Posted on August 2, 2013 by Kieran

After getting off the mark with his Day 4 Nap, Nick Hardman is back in an effort to end the festival with a flourish!

A big sigh of relief as Montiridge (NAP) wins on Friday and I just hope anyone brave enough (or daft enough!) to follow my NAP took the 7/4 on Wednesday evening!

On to the final day and here are my thoughts for Saturday.

 

Goodwood Day 5 (03/08/2013)

2.40 RAC Handicap – Elidor (NAP) @8/1 or higher

For Saturday’s NAP I am going to skip the two feature races (Nassau Stakes and Stewards Cup) and concentrate on the RAC handicap at 2.40. The one I like at the current prices is Mick Channon’s ELIDOR.

This season he has finished second in the Derby Trial at Lingfield and was beaten just a length by Libertarian at Pontefract in April. His first foray into handicap company was in the King George V handicap at Royal Ascot where he was an impressive winner at 20/1. That day he beat the re-opposing Bold Sniper who has won since and Cap O’Rushes who went on to finish fourth in the Irish Derby and then won here at Goodwood earlier in the week.

That is solid form and, despite a 5lb rise, he should run a big race. Currently 8/1 with William Hill you can always spread the risk a little by backing him each way with Bet365 who go 1/4 odds, 3 places (no price with them at the moment). Mark Johnston is mob handed and Royal Skies looks the best of his trio.

And finally…

I will be having a bet on the feature races, even though my NAP is from earlier on the card.

It is hard to ignore the chances of Richard Hannon’s Sky Lantern in the Nassau Stakes. Her form is rock solid and Hannon’s horses have swept most before them at this meeting, including a double in the first two races on Friday as I type this.

If Sky Lantern gets this slightly longer trip then she probably wins. However, I cannot get involved at the current 2/1. Having said that, I can’t see many of these beating her with the exception of INTEGRAL.

Ultra impressive (and ultra green!) in 2 starts to date, Sir Michael Stoute’s filly may well have the raw talent to win this. At 11/2 I’m happy to back her with William Hill.

In the Stewards Cup it is the usual lottery with a number of handicappers re-opposing on various different terms. I always like to take a couple of lively each-way types for this sort of race. My two against the field will be SHROPSHIRE @14/1 with Ryan Moore on board and REX IMPERATOR @16/1.

Good luck to everyone whatever you fancy!

 

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Glorious Goodwood – Naps Days 3 and 4

Posted on August 1, 2013 by Kieran

Nick Hardman is back with a look at Days 3 and 4 of the Goodwood festival.

I don’t know about you guys but I’m not having the best of festivals so far with my own selections! Just a solitary winner in Cap O’Rushes @9/2, who I dutched with Excess “could I have been any more unlucky” Knowledge in the Gordon Stakes. Run that race another 10 times and John Gosden’s horse will win every time.

Apart from that, a couple of second placed refunds and a non-runner have been the highlights. So on to Days 3 and 4 and here are my best bets.

 

Goodwood Day 3 (01/08/2013)

3.15 Goodwood Cup – Altano (NAP) @8/1

You can make a case for and against many of the main protagonists, if not most of the field. Mount Athos is probably the classiest horse in the race, but is difficult to catch right and this is not necessarily his ideal trip. He may prove me wrong and outclass this lot but he’s not for me. Cavalryman reminds me of myself (well past his best) and it would be a great achievement if he took this.

We all know about Saddler’s Rock and Colour Vision and their great head-to-head battles in the top stayers races both here and at Royal Ascot. Of the two, I prefer Colour Vision but it would be no surprise to see either win. The one I want to be with is German raider Altano who could be the value pick @8/1. He brings genuine pattern level form to the table and he was a flying-home 5th in the Ascot Gold Cup after being left with a mountain to climb by his jockey. As long as he’s not dropped out too far back, I am expecting him to run a big race. I will also be having a few each-way on Glen’s Diamond who would have a live chance if back to his best, form that saw him take the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup back in May. He is thoroughly unpredictable but @25/1 he’s worth a speculative each-way punt.

 

Goodwood Day 4 (02/08/2013)

2.30 Thoroughbred Stakes – Montiridge @6/4 or better

It really has been the Hughes and Hannon show so far and I have only backed one of their horses, Producer, my Day 1 NAP who duly finished last. Quite how I haven’t brought myself to back any of Hannon’s other horses is beyond comprehension! That will change on Friday when I confidently expect Montiridge to win the Thoroughbred Stakes. If you feel that I may jinx another Hannon hotpot like I did for Producer, then feel free to lay him for a place on the exchanges for very little liability. I cannot get a price on this beast at the moment of writing but I would back him at 6/4 or higher as he really should put this lot to bed if reproducing the form of this neck second to Gale Force Ten at the Royal meeting. Again you should place your bet through William Hill’s mobile app with their refund offer for second place (no, I don’t get commission!)

Good luck, whatever you are backing!

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Glorious Goodwood Days 1 and 2

Posted on July 29, 2013 by Kieran

Resident racing writer Nick Hardman gives us his thoughts on the best bets on Days 1 and 2 of Glorious Goodwood.

 

Goodwood Day 1 (30/07/2013)

3.05 Bet365 Lennox Stakes (Group 2) – Producer (NAP) @11/2

As ever, Richard Hannon looks likely to end the festival as top trainer, especially as he is mob handed in most races. He looks to hold a strong hand in the Lennox Stakes, the feature race on Tuesday. His two entries, Producer and Professor come here at the top of their game and I expect them both to be involved in the shake-up.

Richard Hughes prefers Producer suggesting the stable feel he is the better chance of the two, but the booking of Tom Queally on the 3 year old Professor really catches the eye. I would not put anyone off backing both but I can only NAP one!

Slight preference is for Producer. All 7 of his wins have been at 7f which is considered a specialist trip. He has also won at Goodwood so he will handle the idiosyncrasies of the course.

Currently best price @11/2, he is my NAP for Tuesday.

 

Goodwood Day 2 (31/07/2013)

3.05 Sussex Stakes (Group 1) – Dawn Approach (NAP) @5/4

Possibly the most highly anticipated race of the entire festival and it also sees Dawn Approach and Toronado go head to head once again. Connections of Toronado feel he only needs to improve slightly to reverse the form with Dawn Approach.

That may be true, but it makes the massive assumption that Dawn Approach fails to improve also. I still do not think we have seen the best of Dawn Approach, especially as he has been keen in his races this season and would be even better if he settled early.

He has beaten Toronado fair and square twice this year and I expect him to make it three. The current best price is 5/4 but if you don’t mind taking 11/10 you can place your bet through William Hill’s mobile app and be guaranteed a refund if Dawn Approach finishes second.

I expect him to win and at 5/4 he is my NAP for Wednesday.

 

Nick will be back on Wednesday with his thoughts on later days. Good luck everybody, whatever you are backing!

 

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Drawing Dead…

Posted on July 11, 2013 by Kieran

Today we have a post from Ben Aitken of Narrowing the Field Fame. Ben’s just set up a new blog focussing on the flat – and in particular on Badly Drawn Horses. Take it away Ben!

Badly Drawn Horse: Warrior looks ready to Wake up…

3:40 Beverley (06-07-13) – Coachman Caravans Handicap (Class 4) 5f (15 ran)

Hi racing fans

Some of you may know me from my original racing site Narrowing The Field (NTF). NTF is now primarily a National Hunt site and for my Flat analysis I have set up a new site; www.badlydrawnhorse.com.

Badly Drawn Horse specialises in analysing straight track races and looks for horses that ran well, without winning, from a poor draw. This method often uncovers horses that are overlooked by the generally betting public and as such often go off at healthy odds when they next appear on the track. Recent winners have included York Glory at Ascot and Doctor Parkes at Sandown.

Although the main bulk of my analysis looks at straight track races there are instances when it pays to look at sprint races that are run round a bend or with a slight kink in the track.

Indeed it is a sprint race run round a kink/bend that I’m going to analyse and exclusively share with you today here on Make Your Betting Pay….

Race in focus: 3.40 Beverley (06-07-2013): Coachman Caravans Handicap – 5f, Class 4 (15 ran)

How the race played out…

As is generally the case at Beverley over the 5f trip the race played to the hands of those drawn in the low boxes. LENNY BEE broke well from the 1 box and he was in the firing line for most of the contest. CHINA EXCELS also broke well and his jockey Noel Garbutt switched him right across to the far side to try and put him at the front of affairs. It is a difficult box to front-run from, however, and the effort of getting across and then staying in the lead probably led to him finishing back in 11th. As the pace map above confirms for us it was the low numbers that fared best here and it was a definite advantage to be drawn in the bottom half.

The end result…

The winner ZIGGY LEE was drawn in a prime spot (stall 2) and took full advantage of this, winning a shade cosily in the end. His jockey’s claim took him down to a handy mark and 5f on Good to Firm was just right for him. He may find his new mark of 86 a bit lofty although if they keep the young claimer on board he could well be of interest.  Second placed FLASH CITY was another who was ideally drawn but he faded in the final few yards and remains one that is hard to win with. I would imagine a less testing sprint track would be the best option for him.

Third home, WAKING WARRIOR, is the most interesting of the first few home. He was the best finisher of those drawn in double figures, an area that is very difficult to win from over Beverley’s sprint track. Jockey Kevin Scott tried to switch him behind runners early to get cover but also sensibly didn’t stick him right on the far rail, allowing him the option of coming wide in the home-straight and avoiding any traffic problems late on. Out wide is a difficult area to win from here so to be only beaten just over a length is a fine effort. It should also be noted that of the last 105 horses to come from the 11 box over Beverley’s 5f trip only 3 (yes 3!) have won; another reason for us to mark up his run. Fourth placed FITZ FLYER met a bit of trouble in running and although he is on a handy enough looking mark we should remember he is only 2 wins from 42 career starts. Fifth placed LENNY BEE had the prime draw in the 1 stall to be right in the firing line and he was right there for most of the contest before his petrol tank petered to empty in the final few yards. There is no doubt he is handicapped to win but he is on a very long losing streak of 24 runs.

Badly Drawn Horse(s) to follow…

WAKING WARRIOR (3rd) (K Ryan)

Considering he had the nightmare draw in stall 11 this was a fine effort indeed. It was a smart ride from young Kevin Scott and he gave his mount every chance of getting competitive.

The main aspect for me here was how well he ran from that poor draw, stall 11 over Beverley’s 5f trip really is a terrible spot to be in but one feels he could have won this race with an extra half furlong or so to aim at. I actually have the feeling that 6 furlongs is the area we want to see this 5yo running over and that may be where we eventually see him break his turf duck.

He is currently sitting on a handicap mark of 76 and there is every reason to believe that is a mark he can strike from, especially if Kevin Ryan keeps using claimers on him.

He has actually now ran well from a poor draw on his last 2 runs and given a good draw I can see him breaking that turf duck sooner rather than later.

Conditions – I think he should be able to strike over 5 furlongs but the way he finishes out his races makes me think that ‘ideally’ we want him racing over 6f. A testing 5f like Beverley would suit him although we obviously want to see him with a much better draw. Apart from that I think he is fairly adaptable in his grade (at class 4 or below level) and providing he gets the rub of the green with regards to the draw I think he can break his turf duck soon; he is running into a solid bit of form.

WAKING WARRIOR now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool (horse tracker in other words) and I will post on the BADLY DRAWN HORSE Blog when he is due to run next.

If you want more of this type of analysis then please visit my Blog over at Badly Drawn Horse.

Ben (BDH)

www.badlydrawnhorse.com

 

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