Xmas Tipping Competition – Final Day

Posted on December 28, 2013 by Kieran

The final day of the competition is here and the Welsh National is the final obstacle.

In the race to the prizes NickH and Ritz74 have pulled slightly clear of a bunch in 2nd but there really is everything to play for with just just 13 points covering the top 23 entrants. Literally, anyone could win this.

Good luck to all

NickH 5.75 Well Refreshed
Ritz74 5.75 Well Refreshed
JumpingMIck 3.5 Highland Lodge
Mhoughton 3.5 Gooneyella
Tricky Dicky 3.5 Highland Lodge
PhotoFinish 2.25 Well Refreshed
towny254 2.25 Alfie Sherrin
Rugbymoon 2.25 Tidal Bay
brendanelson 2.25 Teaforthree
The Major 2.25 Gooneyella
Ashy73 2.25 Tour Des Champs
shortz 2.25 Merry King
Saddleback 2.25 Vintage Star
Silksuccess 2.25 No Selection
Topman 0 No Selection
jediknight 0 Goulanes
Big Al 0 Vintage Star
Pelly 0 No Selection
WillP 0 Highland Lodge
Kendot 0 Mountainous
bojitoes 0 Goulanes
Devon Donkeys -7.75 Knock a Hand
Coxy -7.75 Mountainous
Aventine -10 Hawkes Point
TopCat -10 No Selection
Nagmenot -10 Highland Lodge
GerryRich -10 Hey Big Spender
seanier -20 No Selection
Bestscp -20 No Selection
cracker56 -20 No Selection
Merlin -20 No Selection
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Xmas Tipping Competition Day 2

Posted on December 26, 2013 by Kieran

An exciting start to the competition last saturday with the spoils going to Reve de Sivola – as predicted by the majority of competition entrants. As a result we have a jostling throng at the head of affairs with a bunching group in behind.

Good luck to everybody!

Nickname Points King George Tip
PhotoFinish 2.25 Dynaste
towny254 2.25 Al Ferof
Devon Donkeys 2.25 No Selection
Rugbymoon 2.25 Cue Card
brendanelson 2.25 Dynaste
NickH 2.25 Silviniaco Conti
The Major 2.25 Al Ferof
Ashy73 2.25 Al Ferof
shortz 2.25 Al Ferof
Ritz74 2.25 Silviniaco Conti
Saddleback 2.25 Al Ferof
Coxy 2.25 No Selection
Silksuccess 2.25 Cue Card
Topman 0 Al Ferof
jediknight 0 Dynaste
Big Al 0 Al Ferof
Pelly 0 Dynaste
JumpingMIck 0 Silviniaco Conti
WillP 0 Al Ferof
Mhoughton 0 Silviniaco Conti
Kendot 0 Al Ferof
Tricky Dicky 0 Silviniaco Conti
bojitoes 0 Menorah
seanier -10 No Selection
Bestscp -10 No Selection
cracker56 -10 No Selection
Merlin -10 No Selection
Aventine -10 Cue Card
TopCat -10 Dynaste
Nagmenot -10 Cue Card
GerryRich -10 Long Run

 

 

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Xmas Tipping Competition Day 1 – The Long Walk Hurdle

Posted on December 21, 2013 by Kieran

The day has finally arrived and the first leg of The MYBP Xmas Tipping Competition is the Long Walk Hurdle at 2.25pm at Ascot this afternoon.

At Fishers Cross is the very warm favourite for the race at 8/11 but, interestingly the overwhelming majority of entrants have gone for last years winner, the Nick Williams trained Reve de Sivola.  We shall see. very good luck to all!

All entries are below:

seanier No selection
Topman At Fishers Cross
PhotoFinish Reve de Sivola
jediknight At Fishers Cross
Bestscp No selection
towny254 Reve de Sivola
cracker56 No selection
Devon Donkeys Reve de Sivola
Rugbymoon Reve de Sivola
Merlin No selection
Aventine No selection
Big Al Time for Rupert
Pelly At Fishers Cross
brendanelson Reve de Sivola
TopCat No selection
JumpingMIck Salubrious
NickH Reve de Sivola
WillP At Fishers Cross
Nagmenot No selection
GerryRich No selection
The Major Reve de Sivola
Ashy73 Reve de Sivola
Mhoughton At Fishers Cross
Kendot At Fishers Cross
shortz Reve de Sivola
Tricky Dicky At Fishers Cross
Ritz74 Reve de Sivola
Saddleback Reve de Sivola
bojitoes Salubrious
Coxy Reve de Sivola
Silksuccess Reve de Sivola
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Xmas Tipping Competition

Posted on December 12, 2013 by Kieran

Hello to all and particularly to the new readers that have registered over the last few weeks.

The sheer volume of work involved in setting up, launching and running  my new tipping service has meant that I’ve neglected this site over the last couple of months and for that  you have my sincere apologies.

Here and now, I’m undertaking to devote a good bit more time to the site and  I think given some hard work and some tweaks it can become a much more valuable resource for all things betting and horse racing related.

Today, with  that in mind, I thought we’d start with the Make Your Betting Pay Christmas Tipping Competition. The format we’ve used over the last couple of years has worked well and I can see no reason to change a winning formula – so here goes:

Prizes this year will be:

1st Prize: 1 months free subscription to my Morning Value Service (value £150 -currently more than 1900 points in profit since inception in July 2011) + £50 Amazon voucher.

2nd Prize: £30 Amazon Voucher

3rd prize: £20 Amazon Voucher

 

The Races

The races you need to find the winners in this year are:

Saturday 21-12-13  Ascot The Long Walk Hurdle

Thursday 26-12-13 Kempton Park King George VI Chase

Saturday 28-12-13 Chepstow Welsh Grand National

 

The Rules

All entrants must register for the competition no later than noon on Friday 20th December

Selections are required by 12 noon UK time on each race day. Any that come in after that will not be included ( I will have to be strict about this – last time I was still receiving selections 5 minutes before the race!).

Points will be allocated in line with SP for each winner you find.

If you don’t tip in a race you will lose 10 points.

The winner will be the person who has the most points after the Welsh National on Saturday 28th

In the event of a tie at the end of the competition, I will draw the winner from a hat.

All the usual gumph about my decision being final blah blah blah

 

How to Enter

To enter the competition you will need to contact me on kieran@makeyourbettingpay.co.uk before noon on Friday to register your name as an entrant. Please put TIPPING COMPETITION in the subject line of your email.

Please also supply me with a tipping nickname you would be happy to see posted on the site.

I’m afraid no new entrants will be accepted after noon on Friday (20-12-11). If you don’t pick for Saturday’s race – there is no joining in later!

I hope those rules are fair and clear! I think they make for a decent test of tipping ability.

 

********************

I’m not usually one to pay too much attention to stable whispers and the like but every now and then a whisper becomes so insistent it’s almost a shout.

The whisper on this occasion is about Quick Jack for the Ladbroke Hurdle on Saturday week. I’ve heard from several reliable sources that the horse has improved massively from his facile win at Cheltenham last time out. The exact word is “if he takes part, he wins” and “he’ll be half his current price on the day”

Who knows what will happen or if he will even go for the race but, I have little doubt that the stable feel he is a near certainty if he takes his chance. On that basis, I will be having a small interest at the 8/1 generally available.

********************

I know many readers have been availing themselves of the free trial currently being offered by Keith Eckstein of his excellent Focus Ratings Service.

Personally, I use the ratings as an additional check on my own selections but there are myriad ways in which they can be used including simply as a time saving device for narrowing a race down to three contenders that win 54% of the time!

The free trial ends today and if you are interested in continuing, you can sign up here for the exceptionally reasonable cost of £10+vat a month or – even better – £25+vat  a quarter. I know that membership will be strictly limited at 500 for customer service reasons and at those prices, I don’t think the offer will be open very long!

Focus Ratings

(The sign up links are at the bottom of that page)

That’s all from me today – have a great one and be lucky!

Kieran

 

 

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27 Runner Mad Dash anyone?

Posted on September 20, 2013 by Kieran

I’ve got a couple of things I want to cover today so lets get straight into it with a look at tomorrow’s Gold Cup at Ayr.

The Ayr Gold Cup 21-09-13

With a 27 runner field charging along a muddy 6 furlongs,  we really are setting ourselves a hell of a task to find the winner. However, we’re getting some very juicy prices if we can solve the puzzle so let’s give it a go!

In our usual fashion let’s whittle down that massive number of runners to a more manageable group through the use of recent trends.

There is a strong age trend in this race. All of the last 10 winners have been aged 4 to 6 and I think we can reasonably safely exclude any animal that falls outside that age range:

HAWKEYETHENOO, CAPTAIN RAIMIUS, HASOPOP, HEAVENS GUEST, REGAL PARADE

There is also a strong trend on weight with all of the last 8 renewals being won by a horse carrying 9 stone or more (and everything that finished in the first 4 in the last 4 years was carrying 9 stone or more) This allows us to exclude:

RED DUBAWI, GABRIELS LAD, KHUBALA, JOE EILE, LIGHTNING CLOUD, DUBAWI SOUNDS, LOUIS THE PIOUS, OUR JONATHON and MAJESTIC MYLES

The last 8 winners were all had an official rating of between 97 and 105. I’m happy to knock out anything that falls outside that range:

JACK DEXTER, HAMZA, TROPICS, HOOF IT

Finally, a recent run has proved to be very important ion this race as 9 of the last 10 winners all had a run within the last 35 days. Thsi allows us to remove:

DUKE OF FIRENZE and LOVER MAN.

We’ve now cut the field from 27 to just 7 so let’s take a more in depth look at the remainder.

SPINATRIX – I really like this horse and was gutted to see him just run out of it when our selection in the Great St Wilfrid in August. He has a 2lb pull in the weights with Baccarat for that neck defeat but I have to say, I don’t like his chances as much this time. He’s drawn in the car park and results yesterday ( as well as over recent years) make me think that there is a slight draw bias here for those drawn mid to low. other things that are not in his favour include a claiming jockey which has proved a negative in this race and the fact that he’s never won a race with more than 13 runners.  I’m not saying he can’t win but he has to overcome a lot there and I will be limiting myself to a very small each way interest bet.

MASS RALLY – I’m quite sweet on this ones chances based on his course and distance win back in May. I can’t really see why this one is trading at 20/1 generally and Jack Dexter at 8/1 when you consider there was only a rapidly diminishing head between them over the distance at levels in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle. He also seems to like a bit of cut in the ground and it looks like he will get that here. I’m taking a reasonable chunk of the 20/1 available each way at William Hill who are paying 5 places.

HIGHLAND COLORI – Has a decent enough chance but won’t be carrying my money. Whenever he’s tackled a really big field like this he’s come up short and I also think 6f is a little too sharp for him even with the soft ground. I’d want a bit better than the currently available 16/1 to take a punt.

HUMIDOR – Another one I’ll be leaving out based on a very high draw. I also think the distance and field size won’t suit.

BOGART – he has a chance and I think anything better than 25/1 about his chances represents a bit of value.

NOCTURN – I think being drawn too low here is also a disadvantage. taking that into account along with the claimer and a liking for firmer ground than he will encounter here, I’ll be leaving him out of my bets.

BACCARAT – I think he has every chance, he’s lightly raced and I think there is more to come from this progressive type. The ground is a concern but I think he has a lot in his favour and I will be getting involved at around 10/1.

Please remember, this is a very hard race to figure out so don’t go mad – I will just be having smallish bets and I will be holding off until I see if there is any strong draw bias in the Bronze and Silver Cup renewals.

******************

Last, but certainly not least today, I want to tell you about a nice chunk of freeness that we can all avail ourselves of.

My esteemed colleague Nick Hardman has been contributing to MYBP for a few months now. That’s not all he’s been doing though.

During that time he has also been proofing his football goals bets to the lovely chaps over at Betting School. And he’s been doing it with an awful lot of success!

In the 2 months he has been proofing over there, he’s racked up 181 points profit.

After a stellar performance like that, you won’t be surprised to learn that today marks the launch of his new football tipping service, Goal Market Profits.

Goal Market Profits

Best of all, Nick is so confident you will like his service, you can try it out for a full month before you pay a single penny! Seriously, we’d be mad not to snap it up!

You’ll need a Paypal account to register and if you like the service, it will cost £29.97 a month after the free month. If not, just cancel and you will be charged nothing. Can’t say fairer than that.

Claim your month free trial here

Have a great weekend

Kieran

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The Portland Handicap

Posted on September 13, 2013 by Kieran

I’d really have liked to concentrate on the St Leger today but it’s a viciously competitive renewal and you could make a good case for any one of half a dozen of them to be honest. For what it’s worth, I think Excess Knowledge is a reasonable favourite and a reasonable price at 7/2 generally, Galileo Rock has strong claims if he takes his chance and of the rest I think Cap O’ Rushes offers a chunk of value at 20/1

With that out of the way, let’s look instead in a little more detail at the big handicap of the day, the Portland Handicap at 2.40pm. At first glance this looks far more difficult to work out than the St leger – an almost impossible puzzle. However, I think we can fairly easily reduce the field to the more likely contenders and we are getting some juicy prices to take our chance here.

Portland Handicap 14-09-13

There are some strong trends in the race.

All of the last 10 winners were rated 100 or below. On that basis we can get rid of:

DEFINIGHTLY, BOGART, MAGICAL MACEY and STEPS.

9 of the last 10 winners had their last run within 28 days or less. This allows us to exclude:

ELUSIVITY, AJJAADD and BURWAAZ

All of the last 10 winners had previously won a race with 14+ runners. So let’s get rid of:

INXILE, RACY, and ANGELS WILL FALL

None of the last 9 winners (only 9 of the last 10 were run at Doncaster) were drawn 7 to 12 and only 2 of those 9 were drawn 1 to 6. I’m happy to stick with those drawn 13 and above. This allows us to exclude:

CONFESSIONAL, ZERO MONEY, EL VIENTO, PRODIGALITY, ANCIENT CROSS, ADDICTIVE DREAM, OUR JONATHON and MONSIEUR CHEVALIER

We are now reduced to a shortlist of 4:

DOC HAY, SECRET WITNESS, DOCTOR PARKES, BARNET FAIR.

To be honest, I’m not inclined to drill down any further than that. They are all big enough prices to turn a decent profit if any of them win (or a couple of them place) and  I will be having small each way interests on all 4 – with a slight preference for Barnet Fair who looks to have plenty in his favour.

Have a great weekend and be lucky whatever you are backing!

Kieran

 

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Old Borough Cup

Posted on September 6, 2013 by Kieran

Friday has arrived again and it’s time to take a look at one of the big Saturday handicaps. I’ve plumped for the Old Borough cup at Haydock rather than one of the classier races, simply because I like the shape of this one better!

Old Borough Cup, 3.15pm Haydock 07-09-13

Killer trend 1:

All of the last 10 winners have previously won at 1m4f to 1m6f. This allows us to exclude:

ORIENTAL FOX, TROPICAL BEAT and CLOWANCE ESTATE

( I was tempted to leave Tropical Beat in despite him failing this trend but he seems to make a habit of coming 2nd when he goes beyond 10 furlongs. I’m hoping the he continues to do so!)

Killer Trend 2:

9 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for between 14 and 28 days. Now I think we need to give some leeway on that but I feel compelled to exclude:

PALLASATOR (344 days), GASSIN GOLF (368) and NANTON (57)

(Regarding PALLASATOR I’d probably give him the benefit of the doubt were it not for a dirty scope a couple of weeks ago and ground that looks far from ideal. This feels to me like Sir Mark is desperate to get this one to the track! I’m happy to be against him – particularly at 9/2!)

Killer Trend 3:

9 of the last 10 winners had between 4 and 7 runs in the current year. This allows us to exclude:

KIAMA BAY (8), PLATINUM (11), SCATTER DICE (12) and COUSIN KHEE (10)

Killer Trend 4:

8 of the last 10 winners had won at least 1 race in the current season. This allows us to exclude:

SURAJ and BLUE BAJAN

That leaves us with a short list of 4 which we’ll now look at in a little more detail:

SEMEEN – This one has an awful lot in his favour including Cumani’s record in the race, recent form, jockey and the draw. The 43 days off the track is a slight concern but that won’t stop me backing him to win at the generally available 7/1

ITLAAQ – 7 years old is getting slightly long in the tooth for this race and recent form has been well below the level needed to win this. Despite his decent run in this last year, I’m happy to leave him alone.

POYLE THOMAS – My other big fancy for the race. Another one with an awful lot in his favour and I’ve taken a chunk of the 8/1 available with Bet 365.

WYBORNE – With his sole win  coming in a lowly maiden at Wolverhampton back in February and precious little form of value since, he’ll be running unencumbered by my shekels.

In summary

I like SEMEEN and POYLE THOMAS and will be backing both to win.

Let us know what you’ll be backing and why in the comments section below!

Have a great weekend!

Kieran

 

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Trainers to Follow in September

Posted on August 30, 2013 by Kieran

I had intended to do a big race preview today but I found the fare on offer so lacking in inspiration and value that I changed my mind. Instead, I thought I would bury my head in the books in the hope I could identify some profitable trainer angles for when the leaves start to fall.

Henry Candy

He may look a bit of a buffoon in that hat but Mr Candy has been around a long time and certainly knows one end of a horse from the other. Sadly, as a reasonably well known and respected figure in the game, we won’t turn a profit blindly backing his runners -doing that since 2007 would have resulted in a loss of just over 10% of stakes betting at industry SP.

However, what punters don’t seem to have cottoned on to is just how much sharper his string seems to be in September. His figures have been boosted  by a 50/1 winner at Newbury in September 2012 but he would still haver turned a profit since 2007 without that one. The full figures are below:

Runs

Wins

S/R %

P/L at ISP

152

19

12.5%

+57.25 pts

Now, those figures are pretty good on their own but the strike rate is a concern to me along with the fact that there were a couple of small losing years since 2007.

Drilling down a bit more carefully into those numbers reveals a couple of areas in which we would be best to concentrate. Mr Candy’s record in higher class racing during the period has not been stellar so we should concentrate on races in Class 4 and below. In addition, he seems to do better with his middle distance runners so we will concentrate on those running between 7f and 1m2f. The revised figures are in the table below:

Runs

Wins

S/R %

P/L at ISP

58

11

18.97%

+93.25pts

In addition, we can improve those figures by backing each selection to 1 point each way (when enough runners to do so), producing the following figures:

Runs

Wins

Placed

P/L at ISP

Place Strike %

58

11

26

+118.77pts

44.83%

Very nice. A reasonable number of bets and a place strike rate which means we’ll get paid out on a regular basis! To summarise the angle:

Henry Candy runners in Class 4 – 7 races from 7f to 1m2f in the month of September.

 

Tony Coyle

We’re right at the other end of the spectrum with Mr Coyle – he’s only been training since 2011. However, it does appear he shares Mr Candy’s affection for silly hats – and for the month of September.

His overall record is poorish showing a loss of -34.67 points at industry SP since 2011 (even worse when you consider that he’d made a profit of +62.75 points by the end of 2011!). He’s had a particularly painful time of it so far this year but 3 winners in the past 14 days might indicate that the tide is starting to turn and things have been very good for him over the last couple of Septembers. The table below shows performance in those 2 months:

Runs

Wins

SR %

P/L at ISP

28

6

21.43%

+25.88 points

It’s also worth noting that he hasn’t done well with his sprinters so I’ll be concentrating on his runners at 1m+. That gets rid of 7 losing runners, increasing profits to +32.88 points with a win strike rate of 28.57%

Things can be further improved by backing all selections to 1 point each way where possible to do so:

Runs

Wins

Placed

P/L at ISP

Win&Place %

21

6

10

+45.12 points

47.62%

Clearly we’re not dealing with a huge number of bets here so we need to exercise caution but I, for one, will be paying close attention to Mr Coyle’s runners in September. To summarise the angle:

Tony Coyle flat runners at 1m or above in the month of September

That’s all from me today so have a great weekend and be lucky, whatever you are backing!

Kieran

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The Ebor Handicap 24-08-13

Posted on August 23, 2013 by Kieran

I think we can count ourselves a little unlucky in the Great St Wilfrid last weekend – our main bet in the race, Spinatrix, touched off in the final strides by the progressive Fahey hotpot Baccarat. Annoyingly Baccarat was only the 2nd favourite to win the race in a dozen years.

However, we’re not doing much wrong when our main bet goes down by only a neck so I thought I’d get straight back on the horse for tomorrow’s big Ebor Handicap on the Knavesmire. Obviously, I won’t literally be getting on any of the horses – I pity the poor horse staggering around with my bulk rooting him in place! With that cleared up, on with the analysis.

The Ebor Handicap

As usual let’s try and cut down the number of runners with the use of some strong trends from the last 10 years or so.

It’s interesting to note that 8 of the last 10 renewals have been won from a box numbered in the highest 7 and no winner has come from lower than box 10 since 2004. I think that’s a fairly strong stat and I’m happy to exclude anything coming from stalls 1 to 9.

This allows us to get rid of: Number Theory, Opinion, Montaser, Oriental Fox, Tropical Beat, Handsome Man, Bishop Roko and Saptapadi.  I’m also happy to exclude Blue Surf drawn 10 as we have nothing now drawn in 2.

The next trend is on age which tells us that nothing older than 6 has won the race for more than 30 years. This allows us to get rid of Steps to Freedom and Hanoverian Baron.

Interestingly, in the last 10 years we’ve had no winners with an official rating above 102 so I’m happy to get rid of: Sun Central and Sheikzayedroad.

Furthermore all winners in the last 10 years had a run within 55 days which is a bad stat for Tiger Cliff, who I’m happy to remove on that basis.

Also interestingly, all of the last 10 winners had won more than 4 handicaps and 9 of them at at least one win at 1m4f+. This removes Genzy.

So – the final 5. Let’s look at them in a little more detail:

GUARANTEE – I have to say recent form puts me firmly off this one – all of the last 16 winners had palced 3 or better in one of their last 3 races.  Taking that into account, I can’t have him.

CARAVAN ROLLS ON – I think this one is in with a shout but, considering  his lowish draw and the 43 days off the track, I’d like a little bigger than the 9/1 generally available. At that price, others make more appeal but I’d probably have an interest on this one at 12/1 or better.

TED VEALE – A very interesting runner and one I will be backing. He’s hard fit and has one of the shrewdest trainers either side of the Irish Sea. In addition Tony martin, sure knows how to rattle up a quick string of wins with a horse! Only his age is against him and I’m happy to overlook that. I’ll be backing this one at the 9/1 available with Tote and Betfred.

NO HERETIC – I think this one offers a big slice of value at 20/1 with VC, 18/1 elsewhere. I think he’ll be suited by a drop back in distance  and I’m struggling to see why he’s being offered at those kind of prices. He’s weighted to turn things around with Highland Castle and Darren Egan is value for his 3lb claim and a claimer up top is certainly not a negative in this race. I’ll be getting involved each way at 18/1 or better.

Highland Castle – I can’t write him off – not when he can be backed at 33/1. In with a squeak and I’ll have a small each way interest.

Summary

My best bet is TED VEALE and I’ll be backing him to win at 9/1. I’ll also be having small each way interests on NO HERETIC and HIGHLAND CASTLE with slight preference for the first of those.

 

And finally today….

I read Value Backing by Carl Nicholson a few months ago now and found it a thoroughly enjoyable read with some interesting and thought provoking insights into his method of finding value.

The book is available on Amazon and normally costs £7.71.

Imagine my delight however, when I discovered that for this week only he’s been giving it away completely free!

The offer ends today but you can still grab your free copy if you get over there today. Tomorrow, it reverts to £7.71. Even if you don’t have a Kindle, you can download it straight to your PC.

Go and grab your free copy!

Have a great weekend, whatever you are backing.

Kieran

 

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Great St Wilfrid Handicap

Posted on August 16, 2013 by Kieran

It’s been a few weeks since I posted on the site myself and, as usual, you have my apologies. I don’t feel quite as bad about it as I have done in the past because, as you know, I’ve been more than ably deputised by a variety of resident and guest writers during that time.

The success of the guest writers means that over the coming months I will be introducing more and more new features to the site to try and create a real racing community resource here.

Speaking of racing resources,  I REALLY hope you’ve been following the Daily Pro bets since their inception in April – there is a nice, solid profit  building with those and I can see them being a very profitable resource in the long term.

They represent everything I like in a bet – priced so you can get a decent lump on with a high strike rate and offering a decent edge. Best of all they are completely free!

I release them between 10.50am and 11.30am each day and they are not to be missed  – seriously! Today’s selection is here

Of the other new features, it seems Nick’s Punting Diary is building quite a following – you can read the latest instalment here – and I can see why. It’s a feature I look forward to reading myself each week.

With that in mind, I’ll also be adding more featured writers in the coming months covering a variety of sports and how to bet them profitably!

We’re slowly building the site towards where I want it to be but there is a long way to go as yet.

I’m in the process of putting together a survey for next week and I would be most grateful if everybody could spare me five minutes to answer a few questions when it’s completed. I’ll act on the feedback I receive and hopefully Make Your Betting Pay will be a better site for all of us!

Any comments, suggestions, criticisms etc etc would be warmly received and taken into consideration/acted upon where possible! Tell me what you think in the comments box below.

***********************

Great St Wilfrid Handicap – 17th August 2013

I thought I’d take an in depth look at Ripon’s premier event in an effort to 1) try and pocket a few quid and 2) tune myself up for some of those big handicaps at York next week!

So here goes:

As always with these big field handicaps, we need to look to past trends to whittle the field down to a manageable number.

In the last 10 years, only one winner of the race has been drawn higher than 11 ( and that was Pepper Lane in 2011 – not the only time that horse is the exception to the rule in this race!)

Luckily for us, this rather neatly excludes nearly half the field from our reckoning, allowing us to exclude: Hoof It, Prodigality, Secret Witness, Confessional, Dr Red Eye, El Viento, Summerinthecity, Zacynthus and Thunderball.

Very nice indeed!

The next trend is one on age – No horse older than 7 has won the race in the last 1o years which allows us to get rid of: Borderlescott (very sad to see the old warrior go but at 11 years old he would be a massive trendbuster) and Regal Parade.

It’s also worth noting that there has been no 3 year old winner of the race in the last 10 years.   However, I’d rate that as interesting rather than conclusive as there have been very few 3 year old runners in that time

 The other strong trend for the race is a fitness one. Horses with  a LTO run within the last 15 days provide 9 of the winners in the last 10 years. (Again, the exception to this rule is Pepper Lane who won last year after a break of nearly 2 months).

Sticking to the 15 day rule allows us to rule out: Captain Ramius, Rodrigo de Torres, Baccarat and Dick Bos.

That leaves us with a shortlist of 5 and they are:

Louis the Pious

Spinatrix

Blaine

Polski Max

Pearl Ice

Now let’s look at those 5 in a bit more detail.

LOUIS THE PIOUS – A decent third in the race last year,  and now in the hands of David O’Meara who is 2 from 2 in the race over the last 2 years! I wouldn’t want to put anybody off him but I have a niggling feeling that his off the pace running style will play against him here. I’ll be backing him but only as a cover bet to return stakes.

SPINATRIX – This is the one I really like in the race. Fresh from a battling half length victory over Pearl Ice just last week over course and distance, I think this one is the value bet of the race at 9/1 with Tote, Betfred and VC.

BLAINE – There is plenty to like about this one but the 3 year old trend is against him. Combine that with two very poor efforts of late and I’m happy to let him run on this occasion. Watch him hose up now! (Perhaps a very small each way cover bet at 40/1 wouldn’t go amiss)

POLSKI MAX – The 3 year old trend is against this one also and I can’t shake the nagging feeling that this horse is a lot better on softer ground. Possibly a very small each way cover bet at the generally available 33/1

PEARL ICE – Weighted to turn the tables on Spinatrix today, I’m a little bit concerned that he was outbattled by that one LTO and it makes me very nervous. Nonetheless, this is second best in the race and I will  be having an interest at 11/1 with Coral.

So to summarise, my bet of the race is:

Spinatrix @ 9/1 (Tote, Betfred, VC)

Pearl Ice (Next best) @ 11/1 Coral

The rest of the shortlist I will be covering with insurance bets.

Have a great weekend and be lucky whatever you are backing!

 

Kieran

 

 

 

 

 

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