UFC Fight Night 147, London 16th march 2019

I’ve been crazily busy this week with Cheltenham so please forgive me if this week’s MMA offering is a little lacking in reasoning and wordage. I may not give very detailed reasoning but it’s fair to say all my picks this week are straight value calls – underdogs who have been priced too big (but are still more than likely losers). That said, they are the kind of bets that will make plenty of profit if you bet them over and over again.

We have a very decent card for a London fight night – I wish I’d got tickets now! The last couple of London events have been pretty lacklustre but this one has two very good fights at the top of the card and some entertaining supporting bouts. Here we go:

Ian Heinisch v Tom Breese

Ian Heinisch has to overcome the home town favourite here and is rightfully the underdog against Tom Breese.

However, Heinisch is a fearsome competitor with just a single loss on his record – and that to Markus Perez who I rate very highly indeed.

Add to that my belief that Breese is just a tad over rated and you can see why I think that the 5/4 available on Heinisch is too good to be ignored.

Advice: 1pt win Ian Heinisch @ 2.25 Bet365, VC

Danny Henry v Dan Ige

A very tough fight to call and the correct price if I were making the book on this would be 10/11 the two of them.

That being the case, I think Henry offers a touch of value at the 5/4 generally available. I’ll bet 10/11 shots at 5/4 all night long if you let me!

Advice 1 pt win Danny Henry @ 2.25 generally

Leon Edwards v Gunnar Nelson

A fight I’m looking forward to massively and one where I’m struggling to understand why Nelson is the underdog.

It’s true that Edwards is on a 6 fight win streak and has looked increasingly like he is ready to join the elite at Welterweight but Nelson is a stone cold killer with 16 finishes in his 17 wins and is dangerous on the feet and even more dangerous if it goes to the ground. He himself would be on a 4 fight win streak were it not for the KO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in which he was poked in the eyes half a dozen times before being KO’d while pretty much unable to see a thing.

He’s looking in the best shape of his life coming in to this and I have him as a decent favourite. To see him available at 6/5 is a surprise to me.

Advice: 1 pt win Gunnar Nelson @ 2.2 Generally

Darren Till v Jorge Masvidal

The main event and a very exciting fight in prospect.

I’m a big fan of both men and, while I think that Masvidal is clearly the more skilled and experienced fighter, he is a big underdog here because of the fairly large size discrepancy and the home advantage Till will enjoy.

Masvidal has fought largely at lightweight in his career and is only a small welterweight, while Till is a monster at Welterwight who wouldn’t look outsized against a lot of light heavies. Can Gamebred overcome that with his (to my mind at least) substantially superior skillset? I don’t know to be honest, and he has to be the underdog, but at just over 2/1 we are getting decent odds to find out.

Advice: 1 pt win Jorge Masvidal 3.1 Betway (3.0 Generally)

I’ll also be putting all four of them in a 0.1pt yankee

Summary:

Advice: 1pt win Ian Heinisch @ 2.25 Bet365, VC

Advice 1 pt win Danny Henry @ 2.25 generally

Advice: 1 pt win Gunnar Nelson @ 2.2 Generally

Advice: 1 pt win Jorge Masvidal 3.1 Betway (3.0 Generally)

Advice: 0.1pt Yankee above 4

That’s all for me so have a great weekend and be lucky

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