Trainers to Follow in September

I had intended to do a big race preview today but I found the fare on offer so lacking in inspiration and value that I changed my mind. Instead, I thought I would bury my head in the books in the hope I could identify some profitable trainer angles for when the leaves start to fall.

Henry Candy

He may look a bit of a buffoon in that hat but Mr Candy has been around a long time and certainly knows one end of a horse from the other. Sadly, as a reasonably well known and respected figure in the game, we won’t turn a profit blindly backing his runners -doing that since 2007 would have resulted in a loss of just over 10% of stakes betting at industry SP.

However, what punters don’t seem to have cottoned on to is just how much sharper his string seems to be in September. His figures have been boosted ┬áby a 50/1 winner at Newbury in September 2012 but he would still haver turned a profit since 2007 without that one. The full figures are below:

Runs

Wins

S/R %

P/L at ISP

152

19

12.5%

+57.25 pts

Now, those figures are pretty good on their own but the strike rate is a concern to me along with the fact that there were a couple of small losing years since 2007.

Drilling down a bit more carefully into those numbers reveals a couple of areas in which we would be best to concentrate. Mr Candy’s record in higher class racing during the period has not been stellar so we should concentrate on races in Class 4 and below. In addition, he seems to do better with his middle distance runners so we will concentrate on those running between 7f and 1m2f. The revised figures are in the table below:

Runs

Wins

S/R %

P/L at ISP

58

11

18.97%

+93.25pts

In addition, we can improve those figures by backing each selection to 1 point each way (when enough runners to do so), producing the following figures:

Runs

Wins

Placed

P/L at ISP

Place Strike %

58

11

26

+118.77pts

44.83%

Very nice. A reasonable number of bets and a place strike rate which means we’ll get paid out on a regular basis! To summarise the angle:

Henry Candy runners in Class 4 – 7 races from 7f to 1m2f in the month of September.

 

Tony Coyle

We’re right at the other end of the spectrum with Mr Coyle – he’s only been training since 2011. However, it does appear he shares Mr Candy’s affection for silly hats – and for the month of September.

His overall record is poorish showing a loss of -34.67 points at industry SP since 2011 (even worse when you consider that he’d made a profit of +62.75 points by the end of 2011!). He’s had a particularly painful time of it so far this year but 3 winners in the past 14 days might indicate that the tide is starting to turn and things have been very good for him over the last couple of Septembers. The table below shows performance in those 2 months:

Runs

Wins

SR %

P/L at ISP

28

6

21.43%

+25.88 points

It’s also worth noting that he hasn’t done well with his sprinters so I’ll be concentrating on his runners at 1m+. That gets rid of 7 losing runners, increasing profits to +32.88 points with a win strike rate of 28.57%

Things can be further improved by backing all selections to 1 point each way where possible to do so:

Runs

Wins

Placed

P/L at ISP

Win&Place %

21

6

10

+45.12 points

47.62%

Clearly we’re not dealing with a huge number of bets here so we need to exercise caution but I, for one, will be paying close attention to Mr Coyle’s runners in September. To summarise the angle:

Tony Coyle flat runners at 1m or above in the month of September

That’s all from me today so have a great weekend and be lucky, whatever you are backing!

Kieran

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