The Woes of a Tipster…

It’s me again. I’ve been so quiet of late that I would forgive readers for beginning to doubt my existence. Sorry for the silence – I have reasons but no real excuses.

I’ve been dealing with the horrendous fallout of having a bad couple of months on my Evening Value Service just at the point that I took on a raft of new members (isn’t that always the way).

It’s been pretty galling to say the least.

I know my methods work – they’re backed up by a history of more than 40,000 bets over the last 8 years and more recently, my Morning Value Service has made a (fully proofed) profit in excess of 500 points in a year.  That’s in addition to the Evening Service making 170 points in its first 6 month of existence (and my of interest bets turning a profit of 70 points from only 220 bets)

But try telling that to a new member who’s lost 20 points in their first few weeks with the service!

It falls on deaf ears – and to be honest I can’t say I blame them. There are so many poor tipsters (for that read shysters) and systems out there that we are all rightly suspicious when we sign up for something new.

However, I’ve also come to the conclusion that there are some people out there that are psychologically unable to endure the slightest of reverses or take any kind of long term view whatsoever.  As a point in case, below I’ve reproduced an email that I received from a new member on his very first day with the service. It’s reproduced exactly as I received it with no editing, spelling or grammar corrections:

 

“christ you are way off the mark with  SPIDER PALM it is trading at the moment at 9.2 on betfair after i took your micky mouse price of 4.5 with sj   get your bets right and dont send me this shit again or money back do you understand this request”

 

Many of the other bets that evening went off at massively lower prices than we had taken but that was clearly immaterial! How can you react to such an email? And, though that’s an extreme example, there were several others in a similar vein!

Ah well, what can you do?

I wish that every bet I bet I ever placed would shorten dramatically in price and win going away but life doesn’t work like that.

It’s all about taking the longer term view and keeping the numbers on your side over long periods – that’s where the profit is, not in trying something for a few minutes and dismissing it because it hasn’t instantly supplied you with a yacht made of gold.

Anyway, enough of my temporary woes, I don’t want this post to turn in to a rant!

I have some exciting things to report and they are things you definitely should not be missing over the coming weeks.

 

Things You Shouldn’t be Missing!

Firstly, I don’t know how many of you have been following The Major on the tipping trial area of this website.

The Major is a reader of the blog who started posting his daily selections on the site towards the end of last year after he had been sending them to me for a while (and showing an enormous amount of potential).

He didn’t get off to the greatest of starts but he’s persevered, tweaked and refined and is now showing a handsome profit since he started posting.

He posts everyday without fail (except for his recent trip to Las Vegas to get married!) and it’s well worth popping over to the site each day and having a look at what he fancies. His selections are posted up each day by about 10.30am.

Don’t miss out on this completely free tipster who’s in a rich vein of form!

 

Secondly, last week I introduced a new column to the site called Pro Angles.

It’s written by professional betting colleague of mine who wishes to remain anonymous due to his other tipping commitments (suffice to say, he’s part of the team at one of the most respected tipping services in the country)

Pro Angles represent his occasional thoughts and comments on what he’ll be getting involved with that day.  They might be trading opportunities, over-priced good things, dutches, stable information – pretty much any betting angle that he’s found for that day.

He’ll be posting in this section a couple of times a week and I will be mailing out to give all readers a heads up whenever there is something new.

This column really is not to be missed- it’s written by one of the most successful professional gamblers in the country and – a man I have the highest level of professional respect for.

Pro Angles and the Major is just the start of some hopefully useful stuff I will be adding to the site in the coming weeks. I will be recruiting a number of other writers to give us the benefit of their wit, wisdom and punting prowess – not just in horse racing but in a variety of sports that offer opportunities for the astute punter to turn a profit.

And finally, I’m making a firm commitment now to post up my own stuff (thoughts, rants, opinions, the odd tip) on the blog at least twice a week from now on. The mere fact of writing out my thoughts gives me greater discipline and insight into my own betting and if it occasionally helps readers then all the better.

That’s all from  me today but I’ll be back soon with my renewed fervour for making this site a really useful resource for readers

Be lucky

Kieran

PS Shesha Bear runs at Epsom again this evening and might be worth an interest based on course and distance form.

 

 

 

 

10 comments

  1. Hi Kieran, never a truer word when you talk about the difficulties of coping with those cursed losing runs, especially the ones that pop up after a good run. I recently posted an article that discusses this very topic, and your readers might want to read it at Life Is A Roller-Coaster”. The good news, for your experienced members that keep the faith is that the next purple patch shouldn’t be too far away!!

    Best,

    Paul

  2. I never usually comment on websites but your subscriber who took 4.5 with SJ has a point. I don’t back tipsters selections but I would be seriously miffed if that had happened to me. If you’re going to recommend taking a price, do it with a best odds guaranteed bookie.

    1. Hi Tim

      Thanks for your comment.

      Unfortunately, that would be an example of the kind of short termist thinking that I’m trying to avoid.

      Without doubt, I got that particular price badly wrong because of something that developed after the selections was given. Those kind of things happen on occasion.

      However, looked at over a large number of bets, my advised prices beat SP about 70% of the time and by an average of around 20%. To dismiss a method based on a single drifter is, and was, clearly ludicrous

      Best,

      Kieran

      1. I don’t usually blow my own trumpet but I am a pro punter and I beat SP 97.8% of the time.
        To avoid that kind of mistake I don’t normally place my bets until 30 minutes or so before the off.
        Exceptions can be Saturdays or big festival meetings where the markets are strong and mature.
        And I repeat, you can’t go wrong with best odds guaranteed, tails you win, heads you draw.

        1. Hi Tim

          Many thanks for that.

          97.8% is exceptional for beating SP and you are to be commended. Surely taking bog is utterly pointless with a rate like that – far better to take the very best price available as you know you’ve got it right all but 2.2% of the time.

          The reason I’d put up the selection up with SJ was because they were stand out price at the time by at least half a point. So in many cases, it’s not tails you win heads you draw it’s tails you win, heads you lose the points you would have made by taking best price over best BOG price.

          Best,

          Kieran

  3. Re the SJ price I am sure the price at SJ was the best of themorning and above theBOG prices and Kieran felt the selection would at worst stay the same price and more liekly contract. SJ tend to put up a lot of out of kilter early prices in my view and back when I still had an account with them I would use them quite a bit. I didnt always anticipate the market correctly but I was on balance better taking the price. You cannot expect anyone tipster or the best professional in the world to get the price movement right every time.

    As for the individual who sent that email (and from other tipsters this would not be unusual I know) anyone who gets so out of joint about one price drift is in my view temprentally unsuited to betting.

  4. Hi Kieran
    It’s not often I comment on websites but I was a member of the evening value service.
    I packed it in because I couldn’t get many of the advised prices even though the email arrived on time. They had been cut or suspended with the advised bookie.
    If you had a minimum price to take I might join again.
    As for the losing runs I remember thinking you could easily have 40 or 50 losers at a time. Punters who can’t accept this will never win over time.

  5. “christ you are way off the mark with SPIDER PALM it is trading at the moment at 9.2 on betfair after i took your micky mouse price of 4.5 with sj get your bets right and dont send me this shit again or money back do you understand this request”

    As you may know I’ve been running my tips service for over 6 years.
    To answer the question, how do you reply to that? Simple, you dont, I wouldn’t even bother lowering myself to that level, I’d give them their money back and remove them . I personally expect people to behave like adults and don’t accept abuse like that in any circumstances.

    “I’ve also come to the conclusion that there are some people out there that are psychologically unable to endure the slightest of reverses or take any kind of long term view whatsoever.”

    I do agree with you on this. But I believe it is possible to educate people – If they are willing to listen.
    I think its totally expected that whilst most people that bet and follow tips are adults and accept that what they are doing inherently carries risk and that ultimately they are solely responsible for the bets that they strike, there is a segment of punters, mostly new to it, that have yet to understand long term thinking or how to deal with losing runs.
    Personally I try to provide the evidence that long term thinking works, and that small sample sizes are pointless. This can either be absorbed or ignored, but ultimately its the truth and as Churchill said:
    “The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.”

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