The Scottish National and An Exciting Opportunity

Dearest Readers,

To be honest,  I never expected a response like that! Yesterday, rather cheekily, I asked  readers to complete a survey to help me determine the future direction of this blog. Almost as soon as I had sent out the email, responses started flooding in. Literally in your hundreds, you took the time to complete the survey and put forward some fantastic suggestions for things I can do to make the blog more interesting/useful for readers.

I feel quite overwhelmed by the size of the response and cannot thank you all enough for giving up your time and for your kind comments. I will be looking more closely at the results of the survey over the weekend and will have some firm plans (which I will of course let you all in on) early next week. I will try and take all views into account and I’m sure there will be something for everybody moving forward. Thank you all again!

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Moving on to Saturday and the Scottish Grand National at Ayr. Always a tricky race this one with those at the head of the market performing relatively poorly in recent years.  It’s particularly trick this year with most of the field running from out of the handicap because of Neptune Collonges!

However, there is a horse whose price  has really caught my eye as being way, way out of line. Gone to Lunch has finished 2nd in the last 2 renewals of this event and I guess it’s likely that he will find at least one too good for him again this year. However he’s been very lightly campaigned this season with only a run in the Foxhunters at the festival. He can be forgiven his 6th place in that over an inadequate trip on his first run in nearly a year. He was clealry finishing to some effect on that day.

Jeremy Scott  has his small team in flying form at the moment with 4 winners from his last 6 runners. Gone to Lunch’s jockey Nick Scholfield has a 33% strike rate over the last 14 days and is 2 from 5 at the track. All these factors, in my eyes at least, combine to make the 40/1 currently being offered by Corals look very big indeed. I’ve had a decent each way bet at that price and I think that represents a big chunk of value considering VC see fit to offer only 16/1 about his chances.

Chicago Grey obviously has an outstanding chance but his price more than reflects that. Obviously he’s the most likely winner but he won’t be carrying any of my money at 11-2 (even though I love Gordon Elliott and think he is a genius!)

Beshabar has just been acquired by Middleham Park who are a very shrewd outfit and he should go close with a 5 pound pull from Chicago Grey.

The Minack is a doubtful stayer for me and offers of 8-1 are laughable. ( I might have egg on my face  tomorrow but taking 8-1 about this one is suicidal betting)

I won’t be getting heavily involved in the race but Gone to Lunch is my best bet from a value perspective and I’m considering small each way interests on:

Always Right @ 9/1 Boylesports – Very lightly raced for a nine year old and clearly improving.

Merigo @ 14/1 generally – Last years winner aimed at this again with a very similar preparation

Ballyfitz @40/1 generally – 2nd in both the Welsh and Midlands National this year – relishes these marathons.

Lothian Falcon @40/1 Corals – straight value call for me.

Minella Four Star@14/1 – A reproduction of his performance last time in the Midlands National would see him go very close.

So there we have it – a shortlist of 6! And I still think Chicago Grey will be hard to beat! Low stakes are the order of the dayand in all honesty, I may leave it alone altogether apart from the value bet on Gone to Lunch. The more I look at it, the more unsure I get!

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Lastly today, I wanted to say that I’ve been considering launching a value betting service based around taking morning prices. I’m looking for a number of beta testers to trial the service for a month or so prior to launch. The service will be high turnover and exceptionally price conscious. It would broadly work on the following lines:

  • Bets released in real time between 10.30am and noon each day
  • Somewhere between 15 and 30 bets a day
  • Strike rate of around 15%
  • ROI of around 10% long term

Clearly, such a service is not going to be for everybody and numbers would have to severely limited to ensure everybody gets the prices. I’m fairly early in the planning stages for this and am currently unsure about the logistics of delivering the bets and how many members the prices will bear but I’m thinking an absolute maximum of 25 members. Anybody who might be interested in being part of a beta test of such a service can contact me via kieran@makeyourbettingpay.co.uk. To take full advantage of the testing period you will need to:

  • Be free and able to monitor/place bets between 10.30 and noon GMT everyday
  • Have clear, unrestricted betting accounts with most, if not all, of the bookmakers on Oddschecker
  • Be an experienced bettor.

If that sounds like you, I would love to hear from you!

Have a fantastic day

Kieran

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