Today, we have a post from John Mac, professional gambler and occasional betting blogger. Over to John:
“Following stables which suddenly strike form can be a useful tool in any punters armoury. However, the window of opportunity is often a short one and very quickly backers and layers ensure that the value is squeezed out of following them blindly.
Take yesterday as an example for the Mark Johnstone yard. He sent out 14 UK runners, 4 off which obliged, 1 @ 2/1 and 3 @ 8/1.
It would have been a great day to back them all for level stakes and to finish with a healthy profit but how could you have decided that yesterday was the day ? The reality is you just couldn’t have predicted it with any degree of accuracy.
The stable have even by their standards been extremely hit and miss for whats seems an eternity this season. A combination of bad ground and perhaps a low grade virus running through the yard have conspired against them building any sort of run of form.
But have they turned the corner in time for the Goodwood Festival ?
Maybe so but a non blinking eye is required on the weather as for me the Johnston horses, for whatever reason, perform so much better on good fast ground.
Cherry picking his runners to back can also be a conundrum. Almost impossible.
One of the situations I tend to look for are his better classed three year olds ( Rated 75+ ) being pitched in against their elders over trips from a mile upwards.
Obviously the further in trip they go the bigger the WFA allowance is and therefore the greater the advantage they may have.
Again this is not a follow them blindly scenario, but if you can identify those horses which look as though they can physically mix it with the older brigade you may just find some betting opportunities.
Below shows a table which shows the weight allowance for younger horses against their elders from May through to August.
As you can clearly see and I will quote an example, a three year old running today, July 29th, over a trip of Imile 6 furlongs will receive an allowance of 14lb.
Therefore a three year old horse rated 84 could actually race off level weights in a handicap with a older horse rated 70 over the 1m 6f trip.
The advantage can be huge. It is up to you as the punter to identify the horses that are mature enough physically and mentally to cope with the challenge.
As the table clearly shows, as they get older, week by week, so the allowance gradually decreases.
This is an angle often exploited by the Johnston yard and it is well worth looking out for.