The Importance of Value

Forgive me for the lateness of this post. I’ve only just emerged from three days of mourning following the events of Tuesday night. I knew Arsenal would struggle with Barcelona’s passing and movement but I never envisaged us receiving quite such a men against boys style schooling. I was convinced we wouldn’t struggle quite so much for possession in the middle of the park. How wrong I was.

They passed us to death and then on the extremely rare occasions we actually got the ball they closed us down instantly. Horrible to watch. We weren’t helped by an abysmal refereeing performance but there can be no real excuses.

Injury time told a very worrying story for any Arsenal fan. Arsenal still needed just one goal to advance (wholly undeservedly) to the quarter- finals. Yet with 2 minutes to go they were still passing triangles out on the touchline and needed Wenger’s frenzied urgings to knock the ball long and  try and make something happen. There just doesn’t seem to be any “winners” in the team – someone who can take the game by the scruff of the neck and haul us over the line. Nobody in the team with the “win at any cost” mentality that is so obvious in the truly great teams.

Very worrying times. And to add insult to injury, the other North London team (whose name I shall not speak) ground out a 0-0 and went through. Thanks to all the fans of that team who kindly emailed their heartfelt “commiserations.”  We shall never hear the end of it.

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Moving on to happier matters.

I thought I’d write a few words on the importance of betting value. I don’t understand, and never have, why there is any argument about the importance of finding value in your betting. It is absolutely key in making long term profits. I have heard the argument about ” a winner is a winner at any price” argument time and again and anybody who truly believes that should cease betting immediately because as sure as eggs are eggs they will always be the bookmakers friend. On second thoughts, don’t give up. Bet with me.  I’ll be more than happy to lay the action of anybody who who thinks that the price of their winners isn’t important.

I’m not going to  rehash the argument here because I don’t feel it is worth it – unless any readers disagree and would like a post dedicated to the arguments for and against the importance of value betting. If so, leave a comment to let me know and I will knock up a post along those lines.

Suffice for now to say

VALUE IS CRUCIAL


In the long run, if you are not finding value,

YOU WILL LOSE MONEY

In my next post I will expand on the concept of value and show you a value finding/measuring method that has been responsible for 60% of my betting profits over the last few years.

Until then,

Have a fantastic weekend and find lots of winners (at value prices!)

Kieran

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3 comments

  1. Hey Kieran,

    I was a sucker bettor for years, buying into anything and backing donkeys lol. It was only when I really started to get stuck into it I realised what I’d been missing, value is vital!! Too many people read into all the combinations, going, form, breeding, etc… But sometimes you have to step back and look what the odds are actually saying, prime example I’m afraid is Newcastle v Arsenal lol I always look out for these games, where one team is maybe 2/3 goals up in the first half, odds of 800-1000 are often available on the other team to come back, but is it really only one in every thousand games that one team comes back from 3-0?? Obviously this ended in a draw but by filtering games to just premiership, only the home teams etc….. The odds just don’t accurately represent the history, value!!! Looking forward to your follow up post!!

     
    1. Hi Zen

      Thanks for your comments.

      I think you are absolutely right. And to be honest, I would happily take those kind of odds about my local Sunday League team coming back against Arsenal on current form, let alone Newcastle at home. There is an intereting piece of research to be done there to find out what the true odds are of a team coming back from 3-0 down at half time. I, however, would be more likely to be laying the team in front to have the draw on my side as well. I’m guessing that Arsenal were trading at below 1.05 when they went 4-0 up. Small downside, huge upside.

      All the best

      Kieran

       

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