The Flat’s here already….

The sun is beating down and you could be forgiven for thinking it was Royal Ascot week rather than a couple of days before the Lincoln.

The flat season is almost here and bettors with any sense will be reining their stakes in over the coming month until the form settles and we know where we are.

That being said, I thought I’d use today’s post to take an in depth look at the Lincoln Handicap on Saturday, the first major flat race of the season. Here’s hoping we can find a couple at value prices.

The Lincoln Handicap

Simply by looking at the name of the sponsor, we can see that this will be a tricky puzzle to work out -it’s a bookmakers benefit of a race in the form of a mad cavalry charge over the straight mile at Doncaster. However, with judicious use of stats and trends hopefully we can  pick our way through the minefield.

I think we can safely exclude any horse over the age of 6 (only 2 winners over 6 years old in the last 30 runnings, none in the last 10 years). Nice stat that because it allows us to get rid of nearly a third of the field in a single stroke -Smarty Socks, Mia’s Boy, Lowther, Light from Mars, Stevie Thunder, Shavansky and Dubai Dynamo all fail on that basis.

We can also exclude any runner with an official  rating below 91 (91 was the lowest rated winner in the last 10 years – and the next lowest rated winner in that time was rated 95). In fact I’m inclined to take out any runner that isn’t rated at least 95 This allows us to get rid of Barren Brook and Amitola.

All of the last 10 winners had previously won over at least a mile or further and this allows us to take out Field of Dream, Cocozza, Fury and  Brae Hill.

9 of the last 10 winners had between 2 and 4 career win (all of the last 9) and this allows us to exclude Edinburgh Knight, Pintura and Don’t Call Me

Now, I may be going one trend too far with this one (but I’m going to do it anyway!) but none of the last 10 winners had won at Doncaster before. This allows us to get rid of Eton Forever and Man of Action.

We now have a shortlist of:

Start Right,  Askaud, Clockmaker and Mull of Killough

I’m not saying none of the others will win – there’s a few extremely well fancied ones we’ve got rid of – but the trends say they are up against it.

I’d like to exclude some on the basis of the draw but the bias that used to exist  seems to have disappeared. In the last 10 years, winners have been fairly evenly spread over low, middle and high draws.

Let’s look at the chances of our shortlist:

Start Right – It’s interesting to see a Godolphin horses back in the UK so early. A very interesting runner and one I shall have a small each way interest on at 12/1

Askaud – Both trainer and jockey are a bit of a worry for me but 33/1 is too big to be ignored about this one. Another small each way interest.

Clockmaker – Doesn’t win often but could well be in the shake up at a nice price. Another small each way interest at 28/1 with Sporting Bet

Mull of Killough – My real fancy this one – 3rd in this race 2 years ago, a decent win in a Class 2 at Lingfield last time out for his new trainer, a 50% place strike rate on the turf -I’m very keen on this one, 14/1 looks too big to me and I could see him going off shorter. A reasonable each way bet is called for.

Summary:

Small each way interests on Start Right, Askaud and Clockmaker at 12/1, 28/1 and 33/1 respectively.

A decent each way bet on Mull of Killough at 14/1

That’s all from me today

Good luck whatever you are backing

Kieran

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4 comments

  1. Nice work Kieran

    I’m almost 100% with you on these…
    I’ve had a nice e/w punt on Mull of Killough on the back of the Lingfield run you mentioned, as well as a smaller one on Clockmaker.

    I am, however, struggling to get away from Eton Forever as the most likely winner.

    Good luck,
    David

     
    1. Hi David

      I know where you are coming from on Eton Forever and I know the stable really like the horse. My only reservation was the price – that’s just way too short for me in a race like this and I can’t see it as value. Eton Forever also fails the previosu win at track trend (which is a shaky one I have to agree!) In all honesty, I have to agree, he’s the most likely winner but 11/2 is way too short for me

      Thanks for your comment

      Kieran

       
  2. Hi Kieran, I’m with you on Mull of Killough. His price has now gone though after he was tipped up by Hugh Taylor this morning. I’m glad I’m on at 14/1 and not looking at the 10’s which is generally available at the moment! I can’t find much in the way of value towards the head of the market so I’m on Mia’s Boy e/w and Light From Mars e/w too. The latter is interesting having won the Newbury Spring Cup on his second run last year off a 2lb higher mark. His record fresh is encouraging – if we look at his runs in April for the last 4 years it reads 31254381. I think he could make the frame.

     
    1. Hi Nick

      I wondered why he had shortened quite as sharply as that – now I know.

      I’ve also been having an in depth look at the Spring Mile. The more I look, the more I’m convincing myself that Shamdarley is a good thing.

      We shall see – but I’m very sweet on it.

      Good luck

      Kieran

       

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