The Scottish Grand National this year turned out to be quite a frustrating race for me.
I spent a lot of time last week looking at it but was never convinced I had got to the bottom of the race. In the end I had narrowed it down to 7 of the 30 runners – and would you believe that 7 contained the first 4 home! Seems great you might think but really wasn’t as wonderful as it sounds. My main bet for the race was Gone to Lunch at 40/1. We certainly got the value with that price as it went off at 14/1 but, after running really well for most of the race, he folded quite tamely at the business end finishing 7th.
I was frustrated that Beshabar managed to hold on and win the race for two reasons: 1) I had the opportunity to purchase a share in him early last week and didn’t take it up! 2) It would have been lovely (and much more profitable) to see Merigo get up. Another few strides and he would have done.
I won’t castigate myself too much – the first 4 home isn’t too bad and I hope plenty of you ignored my stated worries about the general difficulty of the race and the jitters I had about backing any of them above and beyond Gone to Lunch.
The Betfred.com World Snooker Championship has already begun and I’ve had little chance to carry out any kind of in depth analysis of the field. I will be concentrating heavily on this over the next couple of days and will have it posted up on here before the 1st round matches are completed. That being said, from my first look at the betting markets I would say that the layers, as usual, are underestimating the chances of Graeme Dott. Considering that in the last 7 years he’s won the tournament and been runner up twice, I think the 40 on Betfair should be taken with a view to laying off a bit later in the tournament.
The other one I think is offering a bit of value is Mark Allen. 22/1 with the sponsors is a bit too big for a player I believe has to be winning one of these big tournaments before long. Extrabet go 25/1 but are not offering each way. I will also have some at 25 and 24 on Betfair, again with a view to trading out later.
The curse of the first time champion has returned to haunt Neil Robertson. I’m a bit irritated that I didn’t put him up as a lay against Judd Trump. No first time champion has ever succesfully defended the world title (I think) and his draw against Judd Trump in the first round looked like an accident waiting to happen. So it proved and I should have been a bit more on the ball there.
More to follow in the next couple of days…..
There are just a few spaces available to get involved (completely free!) on the ground floor of the Value Betting Service I mentioned last week. Possibly, I didn’t really sell the benefits of this the other day so I’d better do a proper job of it this time!
In the near future I will be launching this Value service based on a method I have used to make huge profits over the last few years. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that anybody who gets involved will make a lot of money from these selections. My confidence is based on the massive number of bets I have had – more than 20,000 – and the fact that these bets are showing a long term return on investment of just over 10%.
Based on previous experience these selections will make somewhere between 400 and 600 points profit each and every year.
Anybody who gets involved in this during the testing stage will have free access to the bets each day and, more importantly, will have first refusal on membership at the end of it. Membership of this service will be strictly limited to a maximum of 25 members to ensure everybody is able to get the advised prices.
I will be emailing the selections out to those who are interested between 10.30 and noon each day so the only work involved will be to paper trade them (or back to small stakes if you wish) and record the results.
Please mail me on email@example.com if you are interested in getting involved in this very exciting opportunity!
Have a fantastic week
PS I’m still in the process of trawling through the survey results from last week but I’ve been given some great ideas for improving the blog in the coming months! Thanks again to everybody.