Nick’s Punting Diary w/c 05-08-13

This week my plan of attack is a crack at the USPGA Golf Championship, the Betfred Goals Galore Coupon and the Channel 4 televised races.  Plenty to get stuck into, but first I have to start turning over £900 with Bet365 in order to make my 50% deposit bonus real cash.

I use a completely different approach when it comes to turning over a deposit and bonus multiple times in order for me to turn that bonus into cash.  Firstly I don’t necessarily bet to win.  After all, if I can turn the requirement over and break even, my winnings will be the 50% deposit bonus.

To do this I exclusively use the football markets and I lay out multiple events in single matches.  The idea is that I turn over a large amount on a single game with a view to breaking even or perhaps taking a tiny profit or loss.  Here is an example from this weekend.

In the Japanese J-League 2, bottom club Gifu are at home to Kobe who were relegated from the top league last season.  Gifu are not as hopeless as their position suggests and recent results are encouraging.  I fancy them to at least score and maybe even nick a draw.  I place bets on the following: Gifu to win @8/1, the draw @4/1 and both teams to score @6/5.  The stakes are split such that if Gifu score I cannot lose.  I also put Kobe to win in an accumulator with two bankers.

At half time Gifu are 1-0 up.  If it stays that way, the 8/1 bet wins.  If it is a draw then the draw @4/1 comes in as does the both teams to score @6/5.  If Kobe win then the both teams to score bet wins and the accumulator has a good chance of paying out.  As it happens the score stayed 1-0 and in-play I backed the both teams to score “no” at 4/7.  The upshot was I made a small profit of £8.62 but, more importantly, I had turned over £72.50.  A lot of people are daunted by the turnover requirements of bookie bonus offers.  Don’t be.  Just use a different approach to normal, like the one described above.

I am really looking forward to the USPGA Golf Championship.  My 13 year old son has just started playing which has led me to dust down my clubs and retrieve them from the garden shed.  My golf bag still has the membership tag on it stating “Anglesey Golf Club Member 2002 – 2003”!

I last won on the golf at the US Open when I managed to pick Justin Rose to be top Englishman @2/1.  Ironically he actually won the whole competition at 33/1.  When it comes to the golf Majors I am conscious of the fact that I tend to end up with a shortlist of the World’s top 75 players once all tips, hints and suggestions have been collated.  This year I decide to just go with the tips from The Racing And Football Outlook and my good friend, and local golfing expert, Traed (pronounced “tried”, it is Welsh for “feet” and one can only begin to imagine where the nick-name came from!).

And so I place my bets.  To win the tournament I go with Zach Johnson 40/1 e/w, Hunter Mahan 30/1 e/w and Henrik Stenson 22/1 e/w.  Also in my bet bundle are Tim Clark to be top South African @13/2, Graeme McDowell to be top Irishman @2/1 and Graeme McDowell to secure a top twenty finish @12/5.  The ones I left from off the shortlist were Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer and Jason Dufner, the latter not being able to putt allegedly.

The thing I like about golf is that once my bets are placed I can sit back and relax as the action unfolds over the next four days.  It’s a world away from trading the live football markets where you are tied to the laptop for hours on end.

And so to the action.

It’s a decent start for all my selections.  Hunter Mahan and Zach Johnson sit nicely on -2 and -1 under par respectively after two rounds and Henrik Stenson is in the top 10 at -4 under par.  Tim Clark finishes round two at Evens, a couple of shots ahead of nearest South Africans Brendan Grace and Charl Schwartzel who are both still on the course.  An hour later and Grace and Schwartzel have had an awful last three holes and both slipped to +4 over par… and both miss the cut!  That leaves my selection as the only South African in the competition!

I get up on Saturday morning to find Bet365 have paid out for Tim Clark and most of my golf stakes are covered by these winnings.  Great stuff.  Golf is my new favourite sport.

Next it is a crack at the Betfred Goals Galore coupon and this year I am delighted to see that Mr Fred has returned to the fixed odds of 9/2 for three winners and 9/1 for four winners.  Last year Mr Fred went 7/2 for 3 winners and I think punters cottoned on to the fact that this represented about as much value as a handbrake in a canoe.

I still only use Fred’s coupon if he offers better value than any other bookies and this weekend he certainly does.  The three I fancy are Colchester v Port Vale, Bolton v Reading and Notts County v Peterborough.  The best I can get with all the other bookies is just under 7/2 for both teams to score.  Fred gives me 9/2 and it’s a bet.

I now have a bit of time to have a look at the cards for the featured Channel 4 races.  I

don’t know about you but I love the new format of the Morning Line and C4 racing.  It has had a lot of stick from certain areas but I think Nick Luck, Jim McGrath, Mick Fitz et al are doing a grand job.

I could mention here that all they need to do is get rid of Clare Balding and it would be the complete racing show, but I’d better not.

I’ve not been doing too well on the horses for about a month now, with the exception of a couple of nice winners at Glorious Goodwood.  With hindsight I have probably not been putting in the required effort to study to the extent of making properly informed decisions.  It’s true what they say – the harder you work, the luckier you get.

Even so, I am again fairly pleased with my selections and I am quietly confident of at least a winner or two to cover my stakes.  I’ve got Sam Sharp in the first at Ascot @5/1, Mark Johnston’s Broxbourne @9/2 in the next and Steps in the Shergar Sprint @7/2.

In the 2.40 at Ascot I am really keen on Prairie Ranger @6/1.  My bets are completed by Niceofyoutotellme @14/1 and Tahaamah @16/1 in the big handicap at Haydock and Relight My Fire is my NAP of the day @9/2 over at Redcar.

The rest, as they say, is history and here is my walk of shame:

Sam Sharp 6th of 10

Broxbourne 6th of 10

Steps 2nd of 9

Prairie Ranger 4th of 10

Niceofyoutotellme 8th of 14 and Tahaamah 6th of 14

Relight My Fire 8th of 10

 

Over in the football it’s looking good as Bolton, Reading, Notts County and Colchester all score, just leaving Port Vale for the full-house and a nice return @9/2.  Unfortunately that’s the way it stayed and, not for the first time, Fred pockets my cash.

Back to the golf and Tim Clark starts going backwards at a rate of knots in round 3 and finishes the day tied 54th at +5 over par.  Rory Mclroy finally finds some form as Graeme McDowell slumps and it looks likely the top 20 finish and top Irishman bets have gone south.  Hunter Mahan and Zach Johnson slip away into the also-rans and I’m left with Henrik Stenson at -7 under par as my main hope for a decent payout.

McDowell puts in a superb final round and collects a top 20 finish and I collect @12/5.  Rory Mclroy finishes top of the pile from the Irish contingent and Henrik Stenson finishes a never nearer 3rd and a nice each-way payout @22/1.  All in all a very pleasing foray into a sport described as “a good walk spoiled”!

For the record, the tournament was won by Jason Dufner @33/1, the man who allegedly cannot putt and did not make it from my shortlist onto the betting slip.  But there you go, you can’t back them all.

Tim Clark, who had earlier landed me the odds @13/2 for top placed South African, finishes tied 68th on +10 over par.  As a man who predominantly bets on horse racing and football I cannot quite get my head around being rewarded for backing a sportsman who finishes 68th, 20 shots off the winner.

It feels a bit like landing a 13/2 punt on a horse that finishes 18th in the Grand National but happens to be the highest place grey, trained in Ireland who last ran 30+ days ago!  Still, a bet is a bet and I’m not complaining.

Besides, golf is my new favourite sport.

 

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