As we enter the jumps season proper, I find my thoughts turning to those trainers that always seem to have their string ready for a strong early season campaign.
One such trainer is Emma Lavelle who consistently has an excellent time of things in November. The table below shows the performance of all Emma’s runners in November for the last 4 seasons:
I like the look of those figures!
An SP profit of nearly 100 points spread across more than 100 runners is just the kind of thing I’m looking for. An excellent starting point for building a nice little micro system.
Furthermore, when you consider that those figures represent a profit made in each and every one of the last four seasons, things look better and better.
Can we whittle those down and improve things even further? Sure we can!
Performance in better class races is less than stellar – her charges are 0 from 9 in listed or graded company. Lets remove those from the equation.
A price filter is also worth adding when you consider that horses going off bigger than 20/1 have a record of 0 wins from 15 attempts and only 1 of them has placed. obviously we’re working with a fairly small sample there but I think it’s worth leaving them out- sods law dictates she’ll saddle a couple of 50/1 winners now but there you go!
So with those slight tweaks we reach the set of figures outlined in the table below:
If you wanted to smooth things out even further, backing 1 point each way in races that allow it produces:
I’ll definitely be backing those runners throughout November!
To recap, the rules for this micro-system are:
Emma Lavelle runners in the month of November
No graded or listed races
No runners above 20/1
Unfortunately, there are no potential qualifiers tomorrow but there are a few on Friday at Uttoxeter:
02/11/12 12.50 Uttoxeter Hurricane Henry
02/11/12 1.20 Uttoxeter Compassion
02/11/12 2.55 Uttoxeter Kindly Note
02/11/12 4.05 Uttoxeter King Boru
Let’s hope she can get the month off to a flier!
That’s all from me today