Nice November Numbers

 

As we enter the jumps season proper, I find my thoughts turning to those trainers that always seem to have their string ready for a strong early season campaign.

One such trainer is Emma Lavelle who consistently has an excellent time of things in November. The table below shows the performance of all Emma’s runners in November for the last 4 seasons:

I like the look of those figures!

An SP profit of nearly 100 points spread across more than 100 runners is just the kind of thing I’m looking for. An excellent starting point for building a nice little micro system.

Furthermore, when you consider that those figures represent a profit made in each and every one of the last four seasons, things look better and better.

Can we whittle those down and improve things even further? Sure we can!

Performance in better class races is less than stellar – her charges are 0 from 9 in listed or graded company. Lets remove those from the equation.

A price filter is also worth adding when you consider that horses going off bigger than 20/1 have a record of 0 wins from 15 attempts and only 1 of them has placed. obviously we’re working with a fairly small sample there but I think it’s worth leaving them out- sods law dictates she’ll saddle a couple of 50/1 winners now but there you go!

So with those slight tweaks we reach the set of figures outlined in the table below:

If you wanted to smooth things out even further, backing 1 point each way in races that allow it produces:

I’ll definitely be backing those runners throughout November!

To recap, the rules for this micro-system are:

Emma Lavelle runners in the month of November

No graded or listed races

No runners above 20/1

Unfortunately, there are no potential qualifiers tomorrow but there are a few on Friday at Uttoxeter:

02/11/12 12.50 Uttoxeter Hurricane Henry

02/11/12 1.20 Uttoxeter Compassion

02/11/12 2.55 Uttoxeter Kindly Note

02/11/12 4.05 Uttoxeter King Boru

Let’s hope she can get the month off to a flier!

That’s all from me today

Be lucky

Kieran

 

 

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14 comments

  1. Hi Kieran,
    Very interesting piece I shall certainly watching for her horses could you answer a couple of points please.
    What grade of race should we be leaving out also do you have a link pointing to trainers that have horses running.
    Cheers John

     
    1. Hi John

      For this system you need to exclude any race that has the word grade or listed in the description at the top of the race card.

      On the racing post website if you do a search for Emma Lavelle and then click on entries it will tell you whenever she has a horse running.

      Best,

      Kieran

       
  2. Hello Kieran. This looks good. Hope it is a successful as it looks.
    The figures are very good. Thanks for the info.
    Here’s to November and EM.
    regards BH.

     
    1. Hi Paul

      Thanks for your comment.

      I make it 1 from 25 in October with these criteria – and another 8 placed, 4 of them 2nd at decent prices. I’m hoping that a few of those 2nds will get up during November!

      best,

      Kieran

       
  3. looks interesting Kieran,

    and it makes sense- EL was in my 90+ October system with 4/5 yo that I got for free from Ben Aiken. it is fair to say that it has looked like a few of her runners in October have needed the run, and you presume a few of these will return in November with a vengeance! combine this with the fact that she is clearly good at getting some, but clearly not all, of her string ready first time, I can see why November is a successful month!

    will definitely be looking closely at her runners!
    many thanks,
    Josh

     
    1. Hi Josh

      Thanks for your comment.

      As other commenters have noted, Lavelle’s horses didn’t hit the heights in October but I believe that’s more down to variance than a problem with the string so I’m firmly hoping things will turn in her favour in November!

      All the best

      Kieran

       
  4. Emma’s results in the last 4 Octobers were also good but this October she has had just 1 win from 23 runners. Perhaps this is due to the wet weather. I won’t be backing her horses until I see definite signs that the stable is returning to form.

     
    1. Hi Brian

      Thanks for your comment

      i did notice that her October figures weren’t as good as usual but I think that’s less down to a lack of form than to simple betting variance.

      For example, although she only had one winner in October, she had 4 2nds – 5/1, 7/1, 12/1 and 20/1.

      My thoughts are that they are running well but just getting beaten and, if I’m right, things will turn.

      Best,

      Kieran

       
    1. Hi Gavin

      Thanks for your comment.

      I’m including all races under the National Hunt Code – so hurdles, chases and National Hunt Flat (bumpers).

      No flat racing.

      Best

      Kieran

       
  5. Two placed horses from 4, One pulled up and only one runner today and the price has dropped by 59% Interesting race this with Paul Nicholls losing horses to Harry Fry and Henderson / Sheena West all after the 10k?

     

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