Is it really a banker?

Note from the editor: Connor Gallagher returns today with a look at some key numbers to keep in mind when betting at the Cheltenham Festival:

What history tells us about the Cheltenham Festival

Year after year misinformed punters recklessly steam into short-priced jollies – horses that have been talked-up as so-called “good things” in the build-up to the Cheltenham Festival – only to be met with disappointment on the day.

Of course, no losing bet comes without an element of frustration, especially if your selection goes down by a small margin. But I believe the intensity of the emotion is very much relative to the odds stamped onto your betting slip – and I know from bitter past experience that there’s nothing more disheartening than having lumped on a short-priced favourite that gets beaten!

Those of you who backed Hurricane Fly, Grands Crus, Sizing Europe or Long Run at last year’s Festival will know exactly what I’m talking about here. Since 2005 a total of 18 horses have been sent off at odds of evens or shorter – and 10 of them were beaten (55%).

But why is it that favourites fare so badly at Cheltenham in March? Is it the elusive blend of speed and stamina that’s required to cope with the circuit’s unique characteristics? Or is it simply because Festival races are much more competitive affairs than the bookmakers would have you believe? Of course, the answer is a combination of both elements…

Indeed, the competitive nature of National Hunt racing’s showcase 4-day meeting ensures that winners here must possess a combination of mental toughness and physical robustness in equal measure. And I think the Festival’s mixture of quicker ground, bigger fields and an overall much stiffer test of stamina than the muddling small-field “trial” races contested throughout the winter months are the main reasons why many short-priced favourites are turned over at Cheltenham.

At the Festival I would generally advise opposing any horse trading at 4/1 or less in the market. In fact, no less than 10 of last year’s 20 beaten favourites were sent off at an SP of 4s or shorter – a statistic that should strike a chord with any punter currently tempted to take 4/5 about Simonsig in the Arkle, or the 3/1 available in the Gold Cup for Bob’s Worth. On the other hand, I think the opposition to Sprinter Sacre in the Champion Chase is very weak – he’s awesome – and it’s definitely a race I’d rather watch and savour than be getting heavily involved in from a betting standpoint.

I’m really looking forward to this year’s Festival – and for this professional punter the preparation started weeks ago. I’ve been painstakingly analysing the statistical evidence and reading between the form lines since Christmas to identify the horses that I think offer decent value in the ante-post markets. So I’ll know before I place a single penny of my money on the day that the odds are truly in my favour!

And, if you’re the type of punter that loves finding little-known statistical angles and using trends analysis as an aid to finding winners at the Festival, then my all new Trends Betting service is likely to be right up your street…

My service focuses solely on the most valuable races, such as the big-field handicaps and graded races at the Cheltenham Festival where stats are aplenty. By combining trends analysis with in-depth form study, my aim is to identify “value” and point you in the direction of regular big-priced winners.

Since November 2012 my selections have produced +58 points profit to SP from just 37 bets, including recent winners at 4/1 (twice), 9/2 (twice), 5/1, 7/1 and 10/1 (twice).

You can find out more information about how it works and a full list of results here.

I am opening up just 50 places initially and you can secure one of those places today. In fact, for a very limited time only you can sign-up until the end of the year for a heavily discounted price of ONLY £57…

So that includes all the trends, stats and selections for every big race from now until January 2014 including the Cheltenham Festival, Aintree, 1000 & 2000 Guineas, Epsom Derby, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and many more.

All in all I’ll be covering over 150 races, so I believe at £57 my service offers excellent value for money and I am confident that you will too.

Also, sign-up today and you’ll receive my in-depth analysis for this Saturday’s Haydock Grand National Trial and Betfair Ascot Chase at no extra charge. But hurry, because this offer won’t last forever!

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One comment

  1. Your service sounds like it might be very good value, though 37 selections is far too few to be able to say with any certainty.
    Unfortunately I already subscribe to 2 similar services as well as several others which often pick a selection from a big race. Do you have your selections proofed?

     

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