Cesarewitch Thoughts…

It’s the Cesarewitch tomorrow at Newmarket , making up the 2nd leg of the Autumn double.

The Cambridgeshire at the end of September was the first leg and I had some success with Bancnuanaheireann placed 4th from my two against the field. I had suggested on this blog that he might be worth a small each way interest in the race at 80  ( I managed to get a very acceptable 18 for the place on the machine).

With that in mind, I thought I’d chance my arm with a short analysis of the Cesarewitch in the hope we can repeat the trick  (or better!).

At first glance these  crazy bookmaker sponsored handicaps look like an impossible puzzle – and I’m probably crazy to get involved. Minimum stakes are the order of the day!

With 34 runners likely to go to post the first thing we need to do is use past race trends to try and whittle those runners down to a more manageable number of possibles.

Luckily with this race we have a pretty strong trend indicating that the winner is likely to come from Stall 12 or below – 7 of the last 10 winners have come from there.  – A lovely stat that one, allowing us to dispose of 2/3rds  of the field at a single stroke!

Looking at those drawn 1-12 we are left with a shortlist of:

Aaim to Prosper

Tominator

Blue Bajan

Right Stuff

Nafaath

Countrywide Flame

Bernie the Bolt

Beyond

Keplers Law

O Ma Lad

Another very useful stat indicates that 7 of the last 10 winners (and all of the last 6) had an official rating between 87 and 98. This allows us to strike through Aaim to Prosper, Countrywide Flame, Beyond, Keplers Law and O Ma Lad.

We now have a short list of 5:

Tominator, Blue Bajan, Right Stuff, Nafaath and Bernie the Bolt

 

Tominator – I really like Tominator – he fits all the major trends nicely and must have a very good chance from this plum draw. I’ll be getting involved  each way at the 16/1 available with Ladbrokes

Blue Bajan – 10 years old is a bit too old for my liking. I’m not saying a 10 year old couldn’t win it but older types that win this tend to have had a recent run over hurdles. I’m happy to leave this one alone.

Right Stuff – The Betfair markets are speaking strongly against this one – and that’s enough for me to let him run unencumbered with the weight of my money!

Nafaath – I’ll probably have a VERY small each way interest on this one based on a decent 3rd in the Ascot Cup. I’m not overly keen so it will be just a saver.

Bernie the Bolt – Some decent support for this today and I rather like the look of him. 33/1 generally available and I’ll be having a reasonable chunk of that each way. I can see this attracting more money in the morning and going off a bit shorter.

Summary

Tominator – each way bet at 16/1 with Lads

Bernie the Bolt – each way bet at 33/1 generally

Nafaath – small each way saver on betfair at 90 for the win, 11 for the place

We shall see!

*************************

That’s all from me today

Have a great weekend

Kieran

 

 

12 comments

    1. Hi Ronnie

      Thanks for your comment

      Never Can tell was drawn 36 last year (and was given an exceptional ride switched to the middle of the track early – 2nd 3rd and 4th that day came from stalls 2, 6 and 9 respectively) Only 3 horses drawn higher than 12 have won in the last 11 years.

      2011- Drawn 36
      2010- Drawn 3
      2009 – Drawn 12
      2008 – Drawn 24
      2007 – Drawn 12
      2006 – Drawn 4
      2005 – Drawn 9
      2004 – Drawn 19
      2003 – Drawn 1
      2002 – Drawn 1
      2001 – Drawn 2

      Natuarally, an exceptional horse given a good ride can win from out wide ( as happened last year) but the stats say the winner is more likely to come from that bottom 3rd of the draw.

      I hope I’m right but there are no certainties in racing as I’m sure you know!

      All the best

      Kieran

  1. Nice analysis Kieran

    Closely mirrors mine in fact. I’ve gone with Tominator as my most likely and Nafaath as a saver bet. Having looked at those drawn higher than 12, Cosimo de Medici may stand half a chance having been fancied last year but one that did catch my eye was Alhellal. Decent bit of form over hurdles @ 2m4f and beyond and I don’t think they’ve sent it over for a bit of sightseeing and 22/1 seems worth a small punt

    David

  2. I agree with Ronnie: horses drawn high seem to have the best record. For example in both 2002 and 2003 you have the winners drawn 1 elsewhere they are recorded as drawn 36. Did the change in the numbering of stalls apply to Newmarket? I’m confused!

    1. Hi Thomas

      Thanks for your comment.

      Yes, the reversal of stall numbers applied at Newmarket – meaning that some sites (ATR for example) still use the old numbering.

      The software I use automatically adjusts the old stall numbers for consistency so I often forget that the numbers at one time were the opposite!

      Suffice to say, those drawn on the inner in this race (now low numbers/previously high numbers) have an advantage over those drawn wide.

      Phew!

      Kieran

  3. im on olympiad the way he won at york over very good day on the bit and staying on good trainer and equeally good jockey all the best one and all for saturday

  4. Just a big word of caution on the stall number winners (and i hope i am correct with this)

    Newmarket changed the way they number their stalls a few years ago and now start with 1 nearest the far rail and not the high numbers.
    It is the same for all right handed tracks in the UK
    This means that you now have to reverse the draw before this date to get the current data.

    Adjusting the draw to the new numbering system gives winners coming from stalls – 9-25-20-20-34-35-35-17-27-32-24-12-24-3-36 for the last 15 years.

    so 14 of the last 16 winners were drawn 11 or higher. 12 of the last 14 were drawn
    17+

    Please correct me if this is wrong as it can become very confusing

    1. Hi Oneman

      Thanks for your comment.

      While you are correct that stall numbers were reversed at righthanded Uk tracks in March 2011, I’m afraid you are still misinterpreting the numbers.

      Previously high draw ( ie near the inner running rail) was a big advantage in this race. Now (since March 2011) that same draw(near the innner running rail) is numbered low – and therefore we are looking for low numbers.

      I’ve listed the stall numbers for the last 10 winners below – adjusted for the stalls as they are numbered now.

      2011- Stall 36 (under old stall numbering this was Stall 1) – This result goes against the trend I am highlighting
      2010 – Stall 3 (under old stall numbering this was Stall 33)
      2009 – Stall 12 (under old stall numbering this was Stall 24)
      2008 – Stall 24 (Under old numbering this was Stall 12) – This result also goes against the trend I am highlighting
      2007 – Stall 12 (Under old numbering this was Stall 24)
      2006 – Stall 4 (under old numbering this was Stall 32)
      2005 – Stall 9 (under old numbering this was stall 27)
      2004 – Stall 19 (under old numbering this was stall 17) Another result that goes against the trend I’m highlighting)
      2003 – Stall 1 (under old numbering this was stall 35)
      2002- Stall 1 (under old numbering this was stall 35)
      2001 – Stall 2 (under old numbering this was stall 34)

      So to clarify, prior to March 2011, we would have been looking for a high draw (24-35) as the most likely place a winner would come from. Since the renumbering those stalls are numbered the opposite way so the most likely stall for winners to come from now is Stalls 1-12 – though of course there have been 3 results in the last 10 years that go against that trend.

      I hope that’s a bit clearer!

      Kieran

      1. Thanks Kieran.

        I was up all night doing calcs both ways!!! But still wound up with 2nd and 3rd e/w at decent prices in the end, so burning the midnight oil did the trick ( what a shock that one of the few CD Winners came in again!!! that is a trend in its self with most of the big races) and work out in the end. I even asked the help desk at Racing post and got a reply ( a little bit late, but now it is official) So i hope you do not mind if i post it on here for all to see. Its in e-mail form so their answer will be first. I recieved this at 15:49 today LOL!!! (note the times )

        Dear Chris,

        Thank you for your email.

        When the BHA announce changes in the way stalls are numbered (such as in March 2011 for right handed tracks) and so that our historical data remains relevant when studying form for future races, the decision was made to amend our records so that the stall positions listed are those from which the runners would come from if the race was run today and not those from which they came from on the actual raceday.

        We hope that this information proves useful to you. It may be useful to note that in addition to email, we may also be contacted on 01635 246505 (Mon-Sat 8am-10pm Sun 10am-10pm)

        Kind Regards,
        Ben Walton
        Racing Post Customer Services

        ——————- Original Message ——————-
        From: chrisbarker_
        Received: 13/10/2012 02:49
        To: help; IT Help Desk – Help
        Subject:

        Hi

        I was checking the winning stall numbers from your archives for the Cesarewitch and i know Newmarket changed the way they number their stalls a few years ago and now start with 1 nearest the far rail and not the high numbers. I was wondering if your archive has been adjusted to show this

        I get the last 24 years winning stall numbers from 2011 back to 1988 to be 36,3,12,25,12,4,9,19,1,1,2,16,16,11,27,12,4,5,11,15,9,10,22,22 is this correct or do i have to reverse them??

        Regards.

        Chris.

        1. Hi Chris

          That’s the kind of dedication to getting to the bottom of things that will result in making money long term – great work!

          I notice that quite a few of the pre race analyses I’ve seen on line made the mistake of saying a high draw was needed – for exactly the reasons we’ve been discussing.

          Just glad the first three home were drawn low or I’d have looked a right fool!

          Who would have thought that Aaim to Prosper could carry an additional 22lbs to victory this time? – an exceptional, trend busting performance.

          The other run of real note was the O’Brien horse in 5th. With a better draw I think that one would have gone very close He’ll win one of these long distance handicaps in the future if they don’t send him hurdling too quickly!

          Many thanks for your input on this

          Kieran

  5. Hi Kieren,
    Haven’t a clue what number stalls mine are in but my 3 against the field are
    1. Martyr…16/1
    2. I Have A Dream…16/1
    3. Lord Of The House…40/1
    All 3 Win and Place

    Stuart

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