If you can’t convert odds into the probabilities they imply, you are going to struggle in the long term to make money from your betting. How can you assess value if you don’t first know the probabilities the betting market is indicating?

It’s not a difficult thing to do and with a little practice you will be able to do it automatically every time you look at a betting market.

First we’ll look at conversion of fractional odds to probabilities as those are still the predominant type used in the UK.

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Nick Hardman looks back on what was a momentous festival - culminating in some of the best tipping I have ever seen!:

 

Well folks that’s almost it for the jumps season with only the Punchestown Festival to come and the final meeting at Sandown to look forward to.  After that the flat season takes over and personally I only really look forward to Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood.  In my opinion the “Classics” come far too soon in the season and I can never get that excited about them.  Anyway, ba…

Day 2 got off to a flying start with Josses Hill justifying favouritism with a solid performance in the opener and I was more than happy with the 2/1 I took yesterday afternoon as he was sent off at 6/4.  It was 2 from 2 on Day 2 after Hollywell put in a brilliant round of jumping and galloped the legs of his rivals to win @7/2.  Module was a late withdrawal in the Melling Chase and Wishfull Thinking ran a stinker.  Boston Bob won a thrilling finish, produced very late by Paul Townend in what co…

Day 1 got off to a spectacular start with Guitar Pete being delivered from nowhere to first by Paul Carberry in a sensational ride.  My picks Activial and Hawk High finished down the field.  Clarcam was given an honourable mention in this column and ran a blinder to finish second.  With hindsight he was probably the each-way bet of the race.  In the Betfred Bowl, First Lieutenant had every chance heading to the last flight but was beaten by better horses on the day, so no complaints from me and …

Nick Hardman is back and has cast his eye over the first day of the Liverpool meeting:

Hot on the heels of Cheltenham and the opening day of the flat season comes one of my favourite meetings of the year – the Aintree Grand National meeting.  This is always a cracking three days of racing and features a host of Graded races and top quality horses, many of whom raced at the Cheltenham festival and I will be sharing with you my picks for each and every race.  Many will lose, some might win and who …

Saturday came and went in a flash and it was a thoroughly enjoyable days’ racing.  So let’s reflect on how my wagers fared.  In the Dubai Gold Cup, Cavalryman had his run blocked not once, not twice but three times and by the time he got out and flew home he failed to catch the leader by a head.  Now I know a lot of people who backed Cavalryman may be cursing their luck or criticising the jockey, but this is racing and sometimes the cards just do not fall right.  Was he the best horse in the rac…

Nick Hardman gives us his thoughts for the first meeting of the flat season:

Some fantastic racing action on Saturday as the UK flat season kicks off with the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster.  As if that wasn’t enough, we also have the world’s richest race meeting in the Dubai World Cup.  I’ll be giving you my thoughts on the top races from these meetings together with a list of my fancies who will be burdened no doubt by carrying my wagers.

First up is the Doncaster Mile at 2.05pm and just 9 entries…

Well that’s it folks and another festival is over.  The final day was exciting but a tad disappointing from a betting perspective.  As is required by tradition, 6 of us descended on the pub right next door to our local Betfred to watch the racing and sink a few pints.  Included in this rowdy bunch were some notable attendees who have graced the pages of my weekly diary in the past.  First up we had Bryn and Steve from levelstakestips.com (LST).  Two of the canniest punters I know, both are willi…

I have managed to get through the first 3 days of the festival relatively unscathed and nicely ahead thanks to a cracking third day.  Here’s how Day 3 selections fared.  Felix Younger was a tad disappointing and finished a distant fourth in the JLT.  Fingal Bay and Jetson more than made up for it in a cracking renewal of the Pertemps.  Fingal Bay got the decision by a nose and a nice 7/1 payout.  Jetson finished 5^th but unfortunately I had been greedy and taken 16/1, 4 places instead of the wide…

Day 2 was an eventful one.  In the opener, Red Sherlock was found wanting when push came to shove and could only finish a distant 9^th.  Just like the first race on Day 1 there was no catching the Willie Mullins’ hotpot.  I enjoyed my second tragic comedy of the festival so far when my each-way shout Don Cossack fell, hampering my other each-way shout Many Clouds who shipped the rider out the side door.  Waaheb came nowhere in the Coral Cup and three races in, Day 2 was shaping up to be a poor on…