Bellator 222, Madison Square garden, New York 14th June 2019

Short and sweet this week. A half decent card from Bellator this evening (early Saturday morning in the UK) but there are only a couple of fights I’m interested in from a betting standpoint. Let’s crack straight on with it.

Kyoji Horiguchi v Darrion Caldwell

I’m puzzled, to say the least, by the odds on this fight.

5 months ago these two fought in the final of the Rizin Grand Prix. Horiguchi won that in the 3rd by guillotine choke in what was an exciting back and forth scrap.

Since then Horiguchi has stretched his win streak to 12 with a 1st round KO of Ben Nguyen. In his last 23 fights, Horiguchi’s only defeat came at the hands of Demetrius Johnson in a less than optimum weight class for him.

And yet, the fiddlers make Caldwell a strong favourite!

I recognise that Caldwell is a very good fighter and has a great chance of winning here. I just don’t think he should be favourite against a man who beat him handily just 5 months ago!

To see Horiguchi freely available at 13/8 is very strange and we must take advantage.

Advice: 1 pt win Kyoji Horiguchi @2.38 Hills, Coral, Betfred

Rory MacDonald v Neiman Gracie

On the face of it Gracie is up against it here. MacDonald is infinitely more experienced and has faced opponents of a much, much higher calibre over a lot of years.

However, MacDonald has been in some gruelling wars during those years – the kind of fights that could well take years off a fighters life. The one that really stands out as life changing is the defeat to Robbie Lawler. Since that fight MacDonald has not looked quite the same.

Add to that the very strange comments he made after his lack lustre win over Jon Fitch (in which he intimated that he doesn’t have it in him any more to really hurt people!) and I have some big question marks against him in my mind.

Gracie impressed me mightily in his last fight against Ed Ruth. I expected Ruth to win that easily but it ended up being the other way around. Gracie’s flowing, chain submission attempts were something to behold in that fight and he rose massively in my estimation.

MacDonald is still the likely winner but I think Gracie offers value at 2.40.

Advice: 1 pt Neiman Gracie@ 2.40 Bet365, Unibet.

Those are my only two bets of the night but I will be watching the Machida – Sonnen fight with great interest.

If I didn’t feel so suspicious of Sonnen’s will to win – he looked like he took a dive against Tito Ortiz a couple of fights ago – I’d probably have a small interest on him at 11/4 generally. That’s quite a bit too big if he’s genuinely in there to fight.

Summary:

Advice: 1 pt win Kyoji Horiguchi @2.38 Hills, Coral, Betfred

Advice: 1 pt Neiman Gracie@ 2.40 Bet365, Unibet.

Have a great weekend and be lucky

Kieran

 

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