BBC Sports Personality of the Year

Just a short post today I’m afraid, my dear people.

I was intending to post tomorrow but I just read a brief analysis of the Top 3 Market for BBC Sports Personality of the Year. The analysis made a lot of sense to me and I thought I’d get a post out now as the price I like could disappear.

The analysis appeared in the Oddschecker “Odds Squad” daily update email and I’ve reproduced it in full below:

“The 10 candidates for Sports Personality of the Year have been announced, with not a woman in sight. The three golfers are all differing characters with sound reasoning, so they can be relied on to have their votes split and this opens up the top 3 market. It appears Cavendish will get a big push, but he could feasibly flop. Assuming he and one golfer finish top three, we make the third spot a match between Mo Farah (5/6) and Alastair Cook (11/2). Farah’s biggest challenge is to come in 2012, and his unassuming manner and ‘otherness’ in some eyes may hamper votes. Cook’s dominance of the Aussies and spearheading of the rise to #1 in an ever-more popular sport is far more solid.”

 I don’t wholly agree with the idea that Mo Farah’s “otherness” will damage his chances (I would hope the British sporting public are a bit more inclusive than that) but I do think that Cook’s achievements in Australia this year will carry more weight in the voting.

11/2 to finish in the top 3 looks very big to me and I’ve had a decent chunk of it at Totesport. There is currently a straight arb available with Cook being available to lay at 6.2 on the machine but I think I will let it run for a while.

I often find the oddschecker update email of real use in getting me thinking about events I might usually overlook. It’s also a funny read at times. I’ve been trying to find out how I signed up for it but for the life of me can’t see where you can do it on the site. I’m guessing that you receive it as long as you have an account there. Well worth having.

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I had intended to post my thoughts on Gary Speed but, to be honest, everything I’ve written seems wholly inadequate. My heart goes out to his wife and sons.

I’ll be back later in the week

Kieran

 

4 comments

  1. Cavendish will get a big push, from all the cycling forums, fans, magazines etc.
    A bit like what the racing industry did for McCoy. I’m not sure what the relative market sizes are. All I know is that I will vote for Cav.
    I think 11/10 is still a tad short though. For a man who has been very famous in the cycling heartlands of Belgium, Italy France etc for so long yet normally fails to get more than a 30 second mention on the BBC spoty awards. They didn’t show the Worlds race he won, they dont show any Pro cycling come to think of it, and the Tour De France is on ITV4!!!
    Cavendish will probably be mroe famous in 2012 when he will most likely win the first Gold for GB, (fingers grossed anyway)

    1. Hi Paul

      Thanks for your comment. I agree – I think Cavendish is a worthy favourite. I can’t really see anybody beating him.
      I do believe there was some massive value in Alastair Cooke at 11/2 to finish in the first 3 – best price now is 4/1 just an hour later.

      All the best

      Kieran

  2. I have to agree with Paul that the Missile is too short to back. For sure, Cav will get a big push from all the cyclists online, and I’ve had several tweets already from ‘names’ in the sport #Cav4SPOTY (I’m a ‘roadie’ for my sins btw). Strange things happen on the night though, think Giggs the other year (personality? …and I’ve followed Man Utd since I was 8yrs old). For me the SPOTY market is pure novelty. Hope you get something from it though Kieran. Cheers, Paul

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