A New Contributor Approaches…

The “Number Cruncher”  has long been a trusted betting partner of mine and one I have been trying to get involved in this blog almost since the very beginning. Longer term readers will have heard me speak of him before in relation to his unsurpassed portfolio management skills. You can read my previous post about him here.

I’ve increased the pressure on him to come on board over recent weeks – and my persistence has finally paid off. After protracted negotiations, he’s agreed to give us the benefits of his expertise on this very blog.

From 1st February, he will be posting here daily. I’m giving him pretty much free rein as to what he writes about but he has intimated to me that he will be identifying a couple of each way value bets each day for use in a single and a double. From following him over recent years, I can attest that this is one of the most profitable areas of his betting so I’m particularly pleased that he will be sharing those with us.

Watch this space!

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As my last couple of posts have dealt exclusively with staking matters,  I thought it would be remiss of me to move on without pointing readers towards an excellent piece of software that I’ve found invaluable in tweaking my own staking.

It’s called The Staking Machine and if you’re not using it already, you should be. From comments on previous posts I’m aware that a lot of readers are  already using it – and if that’s the case for you, please ignore me.

It allows users to load up results from their methods/systems/tipsters and compare them when filtered through a wide variety of staking plans.

I won’t go into too much detail here as it is fully explained on their website

The Staking Machine

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Lastly today, a quick mention of a couple of horses I have small share in.

We won’t be seeing them out for a while because they are flat horses but I’m pretty keen on both of them.

The first is named Douglas Pasha and, in my eyes at least, is a very exciting prospect. He’s being trained by Richard Hannon, the best two year old trainer by some distance,  and will be reaching the track some time in the spring. He’s very well thought of at the stable and I’m convinced I’ll be accompanying him to some high class meetings over the summer – he’s already entered for the DBS Yearling Stakes at the Ebor meeting,  a race won last year by Bogart and the year before by Wootton Bassett

The second, trained by Ben Haslam in Yorkshire, is called Dreaming of Rubies. He has only seen a racecourse once, when running a very promising second in a 5f maiden at Beverley last September. That race is working out fairly well with a couple of subsequent winners in behind. Another exciting one, in my eyes, and I’m expecting “Rubies” to reappear fairly early in the spring.

I’m really excited by both of them and can’t wait to see them run!

Be Lucky

Kieran

PS I hope some of you managed to follow me in on Somersby last Saturday – I suspected that  2m1f at Ascot represented absolutely ideal conditions after he ran Masterminded so close last year – and the prize was landed in some style!

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8 comments

  1. A comment about your piece on ‘The Number Crucher’ and the comments arising from it:

    1. I use a large (too large) portfilio of Backing and laying tipsters and systems. I have debated about the problem of multiple selections (some the opposite of each other) in the same race. What I do now is try to net off backs and lays on the same horse and to basically back multiple selections in the same race according to each system’s bank – like you do. If the each system is profitable stand-alone then at least I should not lose money doing it this way.
    2. I started doing the 3 month prune but I am not now completely ruthless about it. I discovered that the 2nd system I gave up on ( after 6 months) was one of Paul Ruffy’s and it is long-term profitable, I was jsut too short on patience to keep it going.
    Now I like to think that I can see when an otherwise profitable system is just going through a poor performance phase – so I give it a little longer to come good again. Likewise I think I can now detect a real stinker long before 3 months.

    3. The perfect portfolio is one which best matches the bettors bank, and personality.
    In my case I like to have straight backing, dutching and laying systems/services.
    I am not going to find one which is good at all those, so I have multiple services.
    The two things I wish to control are the long-term profit % of bank and the size and length of the drawdowns. In order to do this i mix services with different characteristics.
    Low odds backing and low odds laying.
    Medium odds backing and medium odds laying.
    Deep value odds backing.
    E/W backing.
    Low odds EW multiples.
    Dutching.

    So 8 different types of betting. If I can find a good one for each type then I will not only be happy, but I sould be comfortably off too.

    Cheers,
    Ian

     
    1. Hi Ian

      Fantastic comment and a great example of a diversified portfolio based on price.

      I’m pretty sure that you will make plenty of profits with that approach.

      Best,

      Kieran

       
  2. as a number cruncher what %do second favourites win
    ie favourites win about 33%of the time not being exactly that but close
    and for a level stake would you be up or down
    might keep you busy for an hour pondering that
    cheers gord

     
    1. Hi Gordon

      Interesting question. We have the capability to test such things!

      Since the beginning of 2009, 2nd Favourites have won 19.04% of their races (38,268 runs, 7285 wins) for a level stakes loss of 4618.71 at Starting price. Not good, I’m afraid!

      Those figures are fairly consistent across pretty much any timeframe you care to mention – so we can safely assume that blindly backing 2nd favs is a quick route to the poor house.

      best,

      Kieran

       
  3. The Number Cruncher sounds like a good addition here.
    I look forward to reading his thoughts.

    And I will back you up about the staking machine software Kieran.
    It is very good software for any one who treats their betting as something that a net profit should be made from not just a bit of fun.

    Many a betting bank has been blown by using a totally unsuitable staking approach.

    You only need to make a small bit of extra cash from it’s usage to cover it’s cost.
    A decent product and well worth a look.
    Cheers
    Mick

     
    1. HI Mick

      Yes, pretty excited about the Number Cruncher myself – he has some interesting ideas about running a portfolio (not all of which I agree with!) but they certainly seem to work for him. He also ace at spotting each way value, which is where he will be concentrating his efforts on the blog.

      The Staking machine is a great piece of kit!

      Best,

      Kieran

       
  4. Hi many many years ago, while at school, looked into backing favorites in novice chases. Which gave me a small profit. How does this stand up now 30+ years later.

    Tony

     
    1. Hi Tony

      Unfortunately, it no longer stands up.

      Favourites in Novice Chases since 2003 have performed as follows:

      Runs: 3364 Wins: 1402 P/L: – 193.25 points at SP

      Not a horrendous loss as a percentage of stakes and a very decent strike rate. I’m sure a profitable little system could be created there by applying just a few common sense filters.

      Thanks for your comment!

      Kieran

       

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