A Gruelling Slog at Chepstow…

Christmas is almost here and, though I love the festive season, I’m not a big fan of the enforced hiatus in racing. Three whole days without a single UK race can seem a lifetime when closeted with our nearest and dearest.

I suppose those jockeys, trainers and stable staff have to have the odd day off from providing us with punting fodder.

A couple of bits of business to deal with this morning.

Christmas Tipping Competition

Day 2 of the comp was completed on Saturday with a tricky Tommy Whittle Handicap in bottomless ground at Haydock. Cannington Brook just managed to hold on and land the prize with Pearly Steps a very unlucky faller at the last.

Only 3 of our intrepid tipsters managed to find CB on Saturday morning and the leader board now looks like this:

Big Al – 9 points

MikeA – 9 points

Boogly – 6 points

Eckythump – 6 points

Eigee – 6 points

Mazblaze – 6 points

Peterpickum – 6 points

The Trickster – 6 points

Topman  – 6 points

MattB – 3 points

Joint leaders but a bunching field in behind. Literally all to play for in the King George on Boxing Day. Please can  all entrants please have their selections with me by noon on the 26th

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Comment Competiton

There are still a couple of days for comments to be left in the comment competition. We’ve had some cracking comments so far and I will be incorporating all of them into a post early in the New year.

Just to recap the rules of the comp.

Leave a comment on this blog between now and Christmas Day. It can be about anything you like (as long as it is not offensive!) – betting tips and tricks, plans for 2012, tales of punting woe or glory, etc, etc.

The person who leaves the best comment (judged by me) wins a £20 Amazon voucher.

Have a go!

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Finally today, our resident race analyst John mac, has cast his eye over the Welsh National

John Mac writes:

HAPPY TO STICK WITH THE ROCK

Just after the Hennessy was run I selected GALAXY ROCK as a potential winner of the Welsh Grand National at the odds on offer at the time of 14/1.

I see no reason to alter that opinion and would suggest that the generally available 10/1 is still a fair bet.

Of course the race is full of potential dangers but none carry the key form lines which this horse has in his locker and suffice to say, if he overcomes potential trouble in running and copes with the ground he is the most likely winner.

His demolition of Carruthers, Hey Big Spender and others at Cheltenham on his last run has been continually advertised as the strongest staying handicap we have had this season and if he repeats that effort he will be extremely hard to beat.

What of the negatives:

Well getting a clean, clear run through the race is obviously the key factor. He isn’t over big and may get himself into trouble if he finds himself too far back in the pack. My theory is that there are many pace angles in the race and hopefully it will help spread the field out rather than having a big bunch and that will be to our advantage.

Desperate ground would also be an unknown but the forecast suggests that things are liable to be relatively mild and dry over the Christmas weekend so soft going is probably what we will get and you cannot expect anything different at this time of year.

Biggest dangers would be last year’s winner and runner up, SYNCHRONISED (if he runs) and GILES CROSS who both have very little to prove at this venue. All things considered though this is GALAXY ROCK’S for the taking. If he gets a clear run through the race he has the potential to turn it into a procession.

Advice: Welsh National (27th Dec 2.10 Chepstow): Galaxy Rock 12/1 Tote, Betfred – 10/1 Generally

John will be back with his thoughts on the King George before the end of the week.

Have a great day

Kieran

 

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3 comments

  1. Thanks for the preview of the Welsh National. If recent trends are anything to go by then the winner will have won already over 3 miles or further, and will also have won before at Chepstow. Does anyone else think the lack of a win at Chepstow may count against Galaxy Rock? Cheers, and Merry Christmas everybody, Paul

     
    1. Hi Paul

      Thanks for your comment.

      I agree that the lack of a course win is a negative with Chepstow being such a singular course. 4 of the last 10 winners didn’t already have a win there though, so it’s not unknown

      I think we are getting a reasonable price to find out.

      Best,

      Kieran

       
  2. This is just a observation regarding Cheltenham Festival having missed only twice in last 30 odd years (members area) watched the last cross country ( farce in my opinon last time) one was allowed to cross into the middle to watch & bet. Getting more & more restricted for viewing ie not allowed to go only betwen point A,B,,C also tote facilates seem to either fail or not work at all (spoke Mr Gillispie by email no joy) what benfit is there in paying out the vast sum for members my feeling is if you do not like it well hard luck mate but if a lot people or more suddenly object to the poor service given then will they be begging for forgiveness .I very much doubt it, still love the place but not the same any more can see Gold Cup run on Satuarday hope i am wrong. If so then thet will be it for me for attending the festival.
    John Cutler
    ps sorry so long

     

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