Over half way through August and we’ve already reached the final day of the Ebor meeting. The big handicap is, of course, the Ebor ( named after the Roman name for York – Eboracum). Never an easy puzzle to solve and looking particularly competitive this year, I won’t be getting heavily involved.
That being said, I still think there is some value to be had in this race and recent history tells us to look beyond the head of the market (only one favourite has obliged in the last 10 runnings and in that time there have been winners at all kind of crazy prices including the 100/1 shot Mudawin in 2006)
Being as tricky as it is, I’m inclined to go for three against the field:
Tactician – I’m struggling to see why this one is 12/1. A very game winner over course and distance last month, JP O’Brien has been booked and he’s more than value for his claim. Michael Bell has his string in tip top nick with 5 winners from his last 14 runners. I find it hard to see him not there or thereabouts. ( I’ve gone each way with toteport at 12’s because they are paying 5 places). As I write, I see that Michael bell has just landed the Nunthorpe. Now there’s a hot trainer!
Ted Spread – Simple value call for me. He’s been running in some serious races this season and there has beencome in for some strong support in recent days. He looks likely to go off shorter than his current 16/. and the same trainer/jockey combo landed the 2m handicap yesterday.
Salute Him – There’s been some support for Salute Him this afternoon andand I think the 33/1 with Sporting Bet is quite a bit too big. George Baker has 4 wins from his last 7 rides, came to York on Wednesday for the single ride on Secret Asset and booted him home in some style.
There you have them. At the very least, I think the prices represent value and that’s the name of the game.
The favourite, Modun, is way, way too short a price for me.
-He’s never won beyond 1m2f and the only times he’s gone further he looked to me like he struggled with the extra distance.
-Favourites have a terrible record in the race
-Stoute himself hasn’t won the race since 1996
All those negatives add up to a very beatable favourite in my eyes and the 5/1 being offered by some firms is laughable. I will be getting after him in a big way tomorrow if he stays at that kind of a price.
Whatever you are backing, have a great weekend.