I think we can count ourselves a little unlucky in the Great St Wilfrid last weekend – our main bet in the race, Spinatrix, touched off in the final strides by the progressive Fahey hotpot Baccarat. Annoyingly Baccarat was only the 2nd favourite to win the race in a dozen years.
However, we’re not doing much wrong when our main bet goes down by only a neck so I thought I’d get straight back on the horse for tomorrow’s big Ebor Handicap on the Knavesmire. Obviously, I won’t literally be getting on any of the horses – I pity the poor horse staggering around with my bulk rooting him in place! With that cleared up, on with the analysis.
The Ebor Handicap
As usual let’s try and cut down the number of runners with the use of some strong trends from the last 10 years or so.
It’s interesting to note that 8 of the last 10 renewals have been won from a box numbered in the highest 7 and no winner has come from lower than box 10 since 2004. I think that’s a fairly strong stat and I’m happy to exclude anything coming from stalls 1 to 9.
This allows us to get rid of: Number Theory, Opinion, Montaser, Oriental Fox, Tropical Beat, Handsome Man, Bishop Roko and Saptapadi. I’m also happy to exclude Blue Surf drawn 10 as we have nothing now drawn in 2.
The next trend is on age which tells us that nothing older than 6 has won the race for more than 30 years. This allows us to get rid of Steps to Freedom and Hanoverian Baron.
Interestingly, in the last 10 years we’ve had no winners with an official rating above 102 so I’m happy to get rid of: Sun Central and Sheikzayedroad.
Furthermore all winners in the last 10 years had a run within 55 days which is a bad stat for Tiger Cliff, who I’m happy to remove on that basis.
Also interestingly, all of the last 10 winners had won more than 4 handicaps and 9 of them at at least one win at 1m4f+. This removes Genzy.
So – the final 5. Let’s look at them in a little more detail:
GUARANTEE – I have to say recent form puts me firmly off this one – all of the last 16 winners had palced 3 or better in one of their last 3 races. Taking that into account, I can’t have him.
CARAVAN ROLLS ON – I think this one is in with a shout but, considering his lowish draw and the 43 days off the track, I’d like a little bigger than the 9/1 generally available. At that price, others make more appeal but I’d probably have an interest on this one at 12/1 or better.
TED VEALE – A very interesting runner and one I will be backing. He’s hard fit and has one of the shrewdest trainers either side of the Irish Sea. In addition Tony martin, sure knows how to rattle up a quick string of wins with a horse! Only his age is against him and I’m happy to overlook that. I’ll be backing this one at the 9/1 available with Tote and Betfred.
NO HERETIC – I think this one offers a big slice of value at 20/1 with VC, 18/1 elsewhere. I think he’ll be suited by a drop back in distance and I’m struggling to see why he’s being offered at those kind of prices. He’s weighted to turn things around with Highland Castle and Darren Egan is value for his 3lb claim and a claimer up top is certainly not a negative in this race. I’ll be getting involved each way at 18/1 or better.
Highland Castle – I can’t write him off – not when he can be backed at 33/1. In with a squeak and I’ll have a small each way interest.
My best bet is TED VEALE and I’ll be backing him to win at 9/1. I’ll also be having small each way interests on NO HERETIC and HIGHLAND CASTLE with slight preference for the first of those.
And finally today….
I read Value Backing by Carl Nicholson a few months ago now and found it a thoroughly enjoyable read with some interesting and thought provoking insights into his method of finding value.
The book is available on Amazon and normally costs £7.71.
Imagine my delight however, when I discovered that for this week only he’s been giving it away completely free!
The offer ends today but you can still grab your free copy if you get over there today. Tomorrow, it reverts to £7.71. Even if you don’t have a Kindle, you can download it straight to your PC.
Have a great weekend, whatever you are backing.