Friday has arrived again and it’s time to take a look at one of the big Saturday handicaps. I’ve plumped for the Old Borough cup at Haydock rather than one of the classier races, simply because I like the shape of this one better!
Old Borough Cup, 3.15pm Haydock 07-09-13
Killer trend 1:
All of the last 10 winners have previously won at 1m4f to 1m6f. This allows us to exclude:
ORIENTAL FOX, TROPICAL BEAT and CLOWANCE ESTATE
( I was tempted to leave Tropical Beat in despite him failing this trend but he seems to make a habit of coming 2nd when he goes beyond 10 furlongs. I’m hoping the he continues to do so!)
Killer Trend 2:
9 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for between 14 and 28 days. Now I think we need to give some leeway on that but I feel compelled to exclude:
PALLASATOR (344 days), GASSIN GOLF (368) and NANTON (57)
(Regarding PALLASATOR I’d probably give him the benefit of the doubt were it not for a dirty scope a couple of weeks ago and ground that looks far from ideal. This feels to me like Sir Mark is desperate to get this one to the track! I’m happy to be against him – particularly at 9/2!)
Killer Trend 3:
9 of the last 10 winners had between 4 and 7 runs in the current year. This allows us to exclude:
KIAMA BAY (8), PLATINUM (11), SCATTER DICE (12) and COUSIN KHEE (10)
Killer Trend 4:
8 of the last 10 winners had won at least 1 race in the current season. This allows us to exclude:
SURAJ and BLUE BAJAN
That leaves us with a short list of 4 which we’ll now look at in a little more detail:
SEMEEN – This one has an awful lot in his favour including Cumani’s record in the race, recent form, jockey and the draw. The 43 days off the track is a slight concern but that won’t stop me backing him to win at the generally available 7/1
ITLAAQ – 7 years old is getting slightly long in the tooth for this race and recent form has been well below the level needed to win this. Despite his decent run in this last year, I’m happy to leave him alone.
POYLE THOMAS – My other big fancy for the race. Another one with an awful lot in his favour and I’ve taken a chunk of the 8/1 available with Bet 365.
WYBORNE – With his sole win coming in a lowly maiden at Wolverhampton back in February and precious little form of value since, he’ll be running unencumbered by my shekels.
I like SEMEEN and POYLE THOMAS and will be backing both to win.
Let us know what you’ll be backing and why in the comments section below!
Have a great weekend!