I hope everybody is enjoying the first day of the Easter Break!
I’ve spent this morning enjoying some time off from the daily stress of racing – although this afternoon I’ll have to plough into some prep work for the 6 meetings tomorrow and the 7 on Monday!
God knows how the jockeys and stable staff handle the relentless racing calendar we have these days – they scarcely get a day off all year long and when they do, the following day ends up twice as busy! I’m guessing that bad weather cancellations sometimes come as a blessed relief!
The next couple of weeks are going to be a strange time, right on the cusp of the changeover from jumps to flat and it’s a time when we need to exercise extreme caution in our betting.
We have a schizophrenic week ahead of us -the flat arrives with a bang tomorrow in the shape of the rescheduled Lincoln meeting, while later in the week we have the last big hurrah of the jumps season, the Aintree Festival.
You already know the horses I’m interested in for the Lincoln (you can read my thoughts on the Lincoln here – pity about Belgian Bill not lining up tomorrow!) so today, I thought I’d take a look forward to the Aintree Festival.
I will be carrying out an in depth analysis of the Grand National a little closer to the day but over the next week I will be identifying a few profitable pointers for the festival as a whole. Here’s the first of those pointers:
Barry Geraghty is a very good man to keep on side at the Aintree Festival.
Over the last 3 years backing all of his mounts in chases or hurdles would have produced a level stakes SP profit of 17.87 points from only 39 rides.
Pretty damned impressive I hear you cry! However, those bare figures hide the fact that the strategy would have made a loss of nearly 5 points last year.
Not so impressive so I thought I would apply some logical filters to those bare figures and came to the conclusion that a better strategy would be to follow all his rides in non-handicap hurdles or chases.
That produces slightly less profit overall ( 14.87 points) but increases the strike rate to 40% and, most importantly, produced a small profit last year.
More Aintree festival facts and figures early next week.
Last but not least today, I’m rather pleased to announce I’ve managed to negotiate a 10% discount for anybody who signs up for Connor Gallagher’s trends betting service by the end of the day.
Connor uses trends and form analysis to identify value selections in the big races throughout the year and I personally think the service offers some of the best value around at just £57 for the year.
When you consider he managed to identify Carrickboy (advised at 66/1) for his members on the final day of Cheltenham, that £57 looks very cheap indeed!
If you’re interested in a profitable service that will give you a serious value interest at the big races over the coming year – and you fancy saving yourself a very handy fiver on the price of it – then head over to Trends Betting now. Once you get there use the code: MYBP10 on the order page to secure the exclusive discount.
That’s all from me today
Enjoy your long weekend and be lucky whatever you are backing!