It’s the Cesarewitch tomorrow at Newmarket , making up the 2nd leg of the Autumn double.
The Cambridgeshire at the end of September was the first leg and I had some success with Bancnuanaheireann placed 4th from my two against the field. I had suggested on this blog that he might be worth a small each way interest in the race at 80 ( I managed to get a very acceptable 18 for the place on the machine).
With that in mind, I thought I’d chance my arm with a short analysis of the Cesarewitch in the hope we can repeat the trick (or better!).
At first glance these crazy bookmaker sponsored handicaps look like an impossible puzzle – and I’m probably crazy to get involved. Minimum stakes are the order of the day!
With 34 runners likely to go to post the first thing we need to do is use past race trends to try and whittle those runners down to a more manageable number of possibles.
Luckily with this race we have a pretty strong trend indicating that the winner is likely to come from Stall 12 or below – 7 of the last 10 winners have come from there. – A lovely stat that one, allowing us to dispose of 2/3rds of the field at a single stroke!
Looking at those drawn 1-12 we are left with a shortlist of:
Aaim to Prosper
Bernie the Bolt
O Ma Lad
Another very useful stat indicates that 7 of the last 10 winners (and all of the last 6) had an official rating between 87 and 98. This allows us to strike through Aaim to Prosper, Countrywide Flame, Beyond, Keplers Law and O Ma Lad.
We now have a short list of 5:
Tominator, Blue Bajan, Right Stuff, Nafaath and Bernie the Bolt
Tominator – I really like Tominator – he fits all the major trends nicely and must have a very good chance from this plum draw. I’ll be getting involved each way at the 16/1 available with Ladbrokes
Blue Bajan – 10 years old is a bit too old for my liking. I’m not saying a 10 year old couldn’t win it but older types that win this tend to have had a recent run over hurdles. I’m happy to leave this one alone.
Right Stuff – The Betfair markets are speaking strongly against this one – and that’s enough for me to let him run unencumbered with the weight of my money!
Nafaath – I’ll probably have a VERY small each way interest on this one based on a decent 3rd in the Ascot Cup. I’m not overly keen so it will be just a saver.
Bernie the Bolt – Some decent support for this today and I rather like the look of him. 33/1 generally available and I’ll be having a reasonable chunk of that each way. I can see this attracting more money in the morning and going off a bit shorter.
Tominator – each way bet at 16/1 with Lads
Bernie the Bolt – each way bet at 33/1 generally
Nafaath – small each way saver on betfair at 90 for the win, 11 for the place
We shall see!
That’s all from me today
Have a great weekend