Trainers for October 2018

Today marks the first appearance of a regular new feature on the site - Monthly Trainers to Follow

For October 2018, I've looked at National Hunt trainers who have knocked it out of the park in October over last three years. Trainers tend to be creatures of habit and  hopefully profitable Octobers will be a habit for these ones and they'll throw a few quid into the kitty over the coming month!

Each of our trainers has made a profit to SP across all their runners and additionally have made a profit in each of the last 3 Octobers individually.

First to jump off is:



Martin Keighley

Martin hasn't been without his troubles in recent years but that hasn't stopped him from producing some decent early season types.

Backing his October runners over the last 3 years has made very decent profits both to SP and even better at Betfair SP.

In those 3 years, backing all his runners in the month of October to 1 pt level stakes would have produced a profit of +63.29 points profit at betfair SP from just 58 bets (ROI 109.29%) with a strike rate of 17.29%

That total includes a couple of big priced winners which may be skewing things slightly so I'd be inclined to limit my bets to just those sent off at 10/1 or below. Concentrating in that range leaves you with 28 bets and +36.42 points profit with no long losing runs.( Strike rate of 28.57%)

I guess  it all depends on your attitude to risk but either way you choose has produced plenty of profit in the last 3 years.

 



James (JPL) Ewart

A really nice angle here. Backing all James's runners in the last 3 Octobers has produced + 30 points profit to SP (+36.15 to BFSP) to 1 point level stakes from just 31 bets. Even better though had you backed all those runners to 1 point each way at SP, you would have made +46.82 points profit to SP and you'd have been paid out on 51.61% of your bets.

I'd be tempted to stick with that but if you want to be ultra selective you might consider just backing his runners when ridden by Brooke Henry, Nick Schofield or Mr D Irving. That has produced 8 winners from 21 bets and a BFSP profit of +46.15 points to 1 point level stakes. I'd be a little wary though that there might be an element of backfitting in that!

 

 



Nigel Twiston-Davies

Nigel has a LOT of runners in October - some 173 across the last 3 seasons and he's made a substantial profit for anybody who backed all of those blind. However that's an awful lot of bets and I think this is one angle that can be refined by adding some filters.

Interestingly, it appears that Nigel's runners do particularly well in the least valuable of races. If you stuck to just his runners in races with first place prize money of £4k or less, you would have done very well indeed in October over the last 3 years.  You would have reduced bets to just 62, finding 18 winners for a profit of +62.49 points at BFSP. Had you backed each way in races of 5 or more runners, you would have profited to the tune of +64.44 points at SP and would have been paid out on +57.63% of your bets.

That's an angle I like very much!

So there we have it - three trainers to keep a close eye on in October, even if you only use the knowledge as a starting point for further analysis. Or just back them blindly - you could have done a lot worse over the last 3 years!

Have a great day and a great October!

Kieran