Great St Wilfrid Handicap

It’s been a few weeks since I posted on the site myself and, as usual, you have my apologies. I don't feel quite as bad about it as I have done in the past because, as you know, I’ve been more than ably deputised by a variety of resident and guest writers during that time.

The success of the guest writers means that over the coming months I will be introducing more and more new features to the site to try and create a real racing community resource here.

Speaking of racing resources,  I REALLY hope you’ve been following the Daily Pro bets since their inception in April – there is a nice, solid profit  building with those and I can see them being a very profitable resource in the long term.

They represent everything I like in a bet - priced so you can get a decent lump on with a high strike rate and offering a decent edge. Best of all they are completely free!

I release them between 10.50am and 11.30am each day and they are not to be missed  - seriously! Today's selection is here

Of the other new features, it seems Nick’s Punting Diary is building quite a following – you can read the latest instalment here – and I can see why. It’s a feature I look forward to reading myself each week.

With that in mind, I'll also be adding more featured writers in the coming months covering a variety of sports and how to bet them profitably!

We’re slowly building the site towards where I want it to be but there is a long way to go as yet.

I’m in the process of putting together a survey for next week and I would be most grateful if everybody could spare me five minutes to answer a few questions when it's completed. I'll act on the feedback I receive and hopefully Make Your Betting Pay will be a better site for all of us!

Any comments, suggestions, criticisms etc etc would be warmly received and taken into consideration/acted upon where possible! Tell me what you think in the comments box below.

***********************

Great St Wilfrid Handicap - 17th August 2013

I thought I'd take an in depth look at Ripon's premier event in an effort to 1) try and pocket a few quid and 2) tune myself up for some of those big handicaps at York next week!

So here goes:

As always with these big field handicaps, we need to look to past trends to whittle the field down to a manageable number.

In the last 10 years, only one winner of the race has been drawn higher than 11 ( and that was Pepper Lane in 2011 - not the only time that horse is the exception to the rule in this race!)

Luckily for us, this rather neatly excludes nearly half the field from our reckoning, allowing us to exclude: Hoof It, Prodigality, Secret Witness, Confessional, Dr Red Eye, El Viento, Summerinthecity, Zacynthus and Thunderball.

Very nice indeed!

The next trend is one on age - No horse older than 7 has won the race in the last 1o years which allows us to get rid of: Borderlescott (very sad to see the old warrior go but at 11 years old he would be a massive trendbuster) and Regal Parade.

It's also worth noting that there has been no 3 year old winner of the race in the last 10 years.   However, I'd rate that as interesting rather than conclusive as there have been very few 3 year old runners in that time

 The other strong trend for the race is a fitness one. Horses with  a LTO run within the last 15 days provide 9 of the winners in the last 10 years. (Again, the exception to this rule is Pepper Lane who won last year after a break of nearly 2 months).

Sticking to the 15 day rule allows us to rule out: Captain Ramius, Rodrigo de Torres, Baccarat and Dick Bos.

That leaves us with a shortlist of 5 and they are:

Louis the Pious

Spinatrix

Blaine

Polski Max

Pearl Ice

Now let's look at those 5 in a bit more detail.

LOUIS THE PIOUS - A decent third in the race last year,  and now in the hands of David O'Meara who is 2 from 2 in the race over the last 2 years! I wouldn't want to put anybody off him but I have a niggling feeling that his off the pace running style will play against him here. I'll be backing him but only as a cover bet to return stakes.

SPINATRIX - This is the one I really like in the race. Fresh from a battling half length victory over Pearl Ice just last week over course and distance, I think this one is the value bet of the race at 9/1 with Tote, Betfred and VC.

BLAINE - There is plenty to like about this one but the 3 year old trend is against him. Combine that with two very poor efforts of late and I'm happy to let him run on this occasion. Watch him hose up now! (Perhaps a very small each way cover bet at 40/1 wouldn't go amiss)

POLSKI MAX - The 3 year old trend is against this one also and I can't shake the nagging feeling that this horse is a lot better on softer ground. Possibly a very small each way cover bet at the generally available 33/1

PEARL ICE - Weighted to turn the tables on Spinatrix today, I'm a little bit concerned that he was outbattled by that one LTO and it makes me very nervous. Nonetheless, this is second best in the race and I will  be having an interest at 11/1 with Coral.

So to summarise, my bet of the race is:

Spinatrix @ 9/1 (Tote, Betfred, VC)

Pearl Ice (Next best) @ 11/1 Coral

The rest of the shortlist I will be covering with insurance bets.

Have a great weekend and be lucky whatever you are backing!

 

Kieran