Nick's Punting Diary w/c 01-07-13

It’s all quiet this week on the betting front as I recover from the shenanigans of the free day out to Chester races.  I decide to sit the week out and wait until the weekend.  As far as horse racing goes I am becoming more selective the older I get and I seem to be concentrating my efforts at the weekend.

It’s the final test of the British Lions tour to Australia and a conversation at work turns to a gentleman’s bet of £5.  I really fancy Australia.  They dominated possession and territory in the first two tests, have momentum on their side and a relatively stable line-up.  The Lions in contrast make a stack of changes that leave the British public scratching their heads.  They also have to deal with the loss of their highly influential captain Sam Warburton.  Evens on Australia to win?  I’ll take that any day of the week.  But wait!  I am hugely patriotic and a massive rugby fan (I live in Wales after all) so why am I backing the opposition when I will be rooting for the Lions?  This is a bit of an emotional conundrum.  I regret making the wager, but there’s no going back.

The Lions destroy Australia and my regret in placing this wager is fully justified.  It also spoiled my enjoyment of the game.  Lesson learnt and it won’t happen again.  Well, not until Sunday at least!

I’ve had my eye on Al Zazeem all week in the run up to the Coral Eclipse.  As soon as William Hill go 9/4 I’m on through the RP app with a guaranteed refund if he finishes second.  Coral go 3/1 and I hope every man and his dog from Land’s End to John O’Groats gets on.  They kindly closed my account without warning 12 months ago so I would love to see them get turned over!

Elsewhere I back Gaul Wood @22/1 each way in the Coral Challenge and place a dutch on Integral @9/2 and Auction @13/2 in the Fillies Listed race.  I have an each way stab on Highland Castle @12/1 and Haylaman @16/1 in the Old Newton at Haydock and that’s it for the horses.  I put the tips up on my friends’ website as he has kindly given me my own page.  No pressure then!

I turn my attention next to the football.  As I’ve posted here before I really like to research the goal markets for value bets.  These are most likely to be found in the less well-known leagues and in the less well-known markets (in other words those markets away from the popular over 2.5 goals and both teams to score).

One I fancy is in the lower Swedish leagues.  Ekilstuna City sit bottom of Sweden’s Division 1 Norra.  However, scoring (and conceding) doesn’t seem to be a problem and 9 of their 12 fixtures have seen 3 or more goals.  The obvious starting point is over 2.5 goals @8/13 or both teams to score @13/20 (the latter having paid out in 5 of the last 6 matches for both sides).  However, I dig a little deeper and see that Ekilstuna City have scored in all of their last 8 home matches.  On 6 occasions they have netted two or more.  A quick scan of Oddschecker and I see Sportingbet are offering 2/1 for total home goals over 1.5.  I don’t need a second invitation and I take that price with both hands!

And so to the action.  Gaul Wood beats just one home and the obvious rise in class and penalty seems to have stopped his progress in his tracks.  On to the Listed Race and Integral looks a very smart prospect as she comes from last to first under a great ride from Ryan Moore.  The Michael Stoute & Ryan Moore combination are having a great season and I’m sure to back them again a few more times this year if the prices are right.  Great stuff.

Highland Castle runs a cracker in the Old Newton Cup and finishes fourth.  I’m fairly happy and break even on the race having also backed Haylaman each way.

I’m starting to get very fond of Al Kazeem.  Lightly raced for a 5 year old he has blindsided the best of the current crop this season having turned over Thomas Chippendale and Camelot before winning the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot.  I watch with joy as he puts in another great performance and gives me a nice return @9/4.

From Sandown to the lower leagues of Sweden and Ekilstuna City are 2-1 up at half time.  This bet gives me the most satisfaction out of all of the weekends’ bets and I’m chuffed to bits.  I’ve read many articles by serious players who advise seeking out niche markets or markets that the bookies may not spend too much time pricing up.  It’s all about finding an advantage and a value price and I’m glad I took the time to explore this one.  Hopefully there will be more of the same in the weeks ahead.

Sunday morning and I’m a bit worse for wear.  I freshen up the neural network with a few strong coffees and take the laptop into the garden.  I check my e-mails and I’ve got a free tip from a managed service – Djokovic to win 3-1 @16/5 and Djokovic to win 3-2 @5/1 against Andy Murray in the Men’s Wimbledon final.  Without thinking, and quite bizarrely, I log in to the relevant accounts and back them both for £10 each.  Now, I know very little about tennis and I don’t really follow it.  One thing I do know is that I’ve been cheering on Andy Murray all week.  Yes, I’ve done it again and I’ve gone and backed against the outcome I desperately want to see!

I try and tell myself that these are cracking bets but I’m left feeling a little stupid and more than a little guilty that I might be the only British person hoping Djokovic wins!  Not only that but now I can’t bring myself to watch it and decide to weed the garden instead.

And so I miss a great sporting achievement as Andy Murray wins in straight sets to become the first British winner since 1936.  I think it’s called “Karma” and I probably deserve to lose my tennis bets and my rugby bet from the Lions final test match.  SkyBet proclaim that “it matters more when there’s money on it”.  I disagree and will be contacting them to change their slogan to “it can spoil your enjoyment when there’s money on it!”

And so a profitable weekend’s punting finishes with a slightly bitter taste in my mouth.  Oh well, at least I’m feeling better than the Coral employee who thought it would be a good idea to go 3/1 on Al Kazeem!