I’ve got a couple of things I want to cover today so lets get straight into it with a look at tomorrow’s Gold Cup at Ayr.
The Ayr Gold Cup 21-09-13
With a 27 runner field charging along a muddy 6 furlongs, we really are setting ourselves a hell of a task to find the winner. However, we’re getting some very juicy prices if we can solve the puzzle so let’s give it a go!
In our usual fashion let’s whittle down that massive number of runners to a more manageable group through the use of recent trends.
There is a strong age trend in this race. All of the last 10 winners have been aged 4 to 6 and I think we can reasonably safely exclude any animal that falls outside that age range:
HAWKEYETHENOO, CAPTAIN RAIMIUS, HASOPOP, HEAVENS GUEST, REGAL PARADE
There is also a strong trend on weight with all of the last 8 renewals being won by a horse carrying 9 stone or more (and everything that finished in the first 4 in the last 4 years was carrying 9 stone or more) This allows us to exclude:
RED DUBAWI, GABRIELS LAD, KHUBALA, JOE EILE, LIGHTNING CLOUD, DUBAWI SOUNDS, LOUIS THE PIOUS, OUR JONATHON and MAJESTIC MYLES
The last 8 winners were all had an official rating of between 97 and 105. I’m happy to knock out anything that falls outside that range:
JACK DEXTER, HAMZA, TROPICS, HOOF IT
Finally, a recent run has proved to be very important ion this race as 9 of the last 10 winners all had a run within the last 35 days. Thsi allows us to remove:
DUKE OF FIRENZE and LOVER MAN.
We’ve now cut the field from 27 to just 7 so let’s take a more in depth look at the remainder.
SPINATRIX – I really like this horse and was gutted to see him just run out of it when our selection in the Great St Wilfrid in August. He has a 2lb pull in the weights with Baccarat for that neck defeat but I have to say, I don’t like his chances as much this time. He’s drawn in the car park and results yesterday ( as well as over recent years) make me think that there is a slight draw bias here for those drawn mid to low. other things that are not in his favour include a claiming jockey which has proved a negative in this race and the fact that he’s never won a race with more than 13 runners. I’m not saying he can’t win but he has to overcome a lot there and I will be limiting myself to a very small each way interest bet.
MASS RALLY – I’m quite sweet on this ones chances based on his course and distance win back in May. I can’t really see why this one is trading at 20/1 generally and Jack Dexter at 8/1 when you consider there was only a rapidly diminishing head between them over the distance at levels in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle. He also seems to like a bit of cut in the ground and it looks like he will get that here. I’m taking a reasonable chunk of the 20/1 available each way at William Hill who are paying 5 places.
HIGHLAND COLORI – Has a decent enough chance but won’t be carrying my money. Whenever he’s tackled a really big field like this he’s come up short and I also think 6f is a little too sharp for him even with the soft ground. I’d want a bit better than the currently available 16/1 to take a punt.
HUMIDOR – Another one I’ll be leaving out based on a very high draw. I also think the distance and field size won’t suit.
BOGART – he has a chance and I think anything better than 25/1 about his chances represents a bit of value.
NOCTURN – I think being drawn too low here is also a disadvantage. taking that into account along with the claimer and a liking for firmer ground than he will encounter here, I’ll be leaving him out of my bets.
BACCARAT – I think he has every chance, he’s lightly raced and I think there is more to come from this progressive type. The ground is a concern but I think he has a lot in his favour and I will be getting involved at around 10/1.
Please remember, this is a very hard race to figure out so don’t go mad – I will just be having smallish bets and I will be holding off until I see if there is any strong draw bias in the Bronze and Silver Cup renewals.
Last, but certainly not least today, I want to tell you about a nice chunk of freeness that we can all avail ourselves of.
My esteemed colleague Nick Hardman has been contributing to MYBP for a few months now. That’s not all he’s been doing though.
During that time he has also been proofing his football goals bets to the lovely chaps over at Betting School. And he’s been doing it with an awful lot of success!
In the 2 months he has been proofing over there, he’s racked up 181 points profit.
After a stellar performance like that, you won’t be surprised to learn that today marks the launch of his new football tipping service, Goal Market Profits.
Best of all, Nick is so confident you will like his service, you can try it out for a full month before you pay a single penny! Seriously, we’d be mad not to snap it up!
You’ll need a Paypal account to register and if you like the service, it will cost £29.97 a month after the free month. If not, just cancel and you will be charged nothing. Can’t say fairer than that.
Have a great weekend