It’s been a long, wet winter of jumping wonders but finally the weather is starting to turn a bit warmer and the flat season has finally arrived. Before we know it we’ll be amongst the classics so we need to start looking for the early season low hanging fruit – in the form of trainers who excel in these first couple of months of the flat season. I’ve picked out three that really caught my eye when I was trawling through some early season stats over the weekend.
Roger always puts me in mind of a kindly old school master and seems a very pleasant character in interviews. He might be an ogre for all I know but I like him and I certainly like his training performances in April and May each season.
Below you can see the performance figures for all his runners in April and May since 2010.
Strike Rate: 19.87%
P/L at Industry SP: +64.73 points
Win/Place Strike Rate: 38.80%
Pretty impressive numbers and I certainly wouldn’t have any hesitation in following his runners blindly for the next month even though they showed a small loss (-5.79 points) last season. He’s back with a bang already this April with 1 run, 1 winner and 5 points profit.
For a slightly more cautious approach, his runners can be backed very profitably each way and you’ll get paid on nearly 40% of your bets that way. In addition pay particular attention to his runners at Newmarket and Newbury where he has an excellent record of profitability (+51 points across the two tracks)
Ralph – pronounced Rafe like the actor Fiennes -has been around for a while now despite still resembling a fresh faced boy.
He won his first classic last year when Talent landed the Oaks and I’m hoping he will have a few more wins over the next 7 weeks!
Performance figures in April and May since 2010 are below:
Strike Rate: 16.46%
P/L at Industry SP: 74.97
Win and Place Strike Rate: 37.86%
Again, very impressive numbers but we do need to be slightly careful here. Those overall figures are hiding a savage loss of 37 points in 2011. It does however appear that was just an unpleasant blip in an otherwise tranquil sea of profitability.
For a slightly more selective ( and more profitable!) strategy, we should exclude his runners at Haydock, Salisbury and Sandown where he’s had just 1 winner in 37 runners. Excluding those tracks increases overall profits to +108.72 points.
Ralph has also got off to a flying start this April with 1 winner from 2 runners and a profit of +13 points.
This is a bit of an unusual one as we don’t normally associate Alan King with flat racing but, there is no doubt, that early in the flat season his runners perform creditably and, more importantly, profitably for their backers!
Performance figures for all his runners on the flat in April and May Since 2010 is below:
Strike Rate: 19.15%
P/L at Industry SP: +31.50 points
Win and Place Strike Rate: 38.30%
Now, clearly, Mr King doesn’t have a lot of runners on the flat during the period, but it does appear those that do are primed and ready to win. Particular attention should be paid to any runners he has at Salisbury where he’s 2 winners from 3 runners at big prices.
That’s all from me today. I hope you find the angles I’ve identified helpful and profitable. Don’t forget to leave a comment and share what trainers you’ll be watching carefully over the early weeks of the flat season.