Make Your Betting Pay

Saturday came and went in a flash and it was a thoroughly enjoyable days’ racing.  So let’s reflect on how my wagers fared.  In the Dubai Gold Cup, Cavalryman had his run blocked not once, not twice but three times and by the time he got out and flew home he failed to catch the leader by a head.  Now I know a lot of people who backed Cavalryman may be cursing their luck or criticising the jockey, but this is racing and sometimes the cards just do not fall right.  Was he the best horse in the race?  Yes, undoubtedly.  Would he have won with a clear passage?  Yes, he would.  Was I paid out at 5/2?  No.  These things happen in racing and you have to take the rough with the smooth.  I backed the right horse, but it wasn’t to be.

Graphic showed a steely determination and dug deep to win the Doncaster Mile but this was one race I had decided to sit out from a betting perspective.  A long wait then until my big fancy Jack Dexter ran in the Cammidge Trophy at 2.40pm.  Having watched the Morning Line I was not as confident as I was when I placed the bet on Friday, given that the panel of studio guests were keen to take him on with Richard Hannon’s Maureen and were making a big deal out of his 5lb penalty.  Well, it turns out they were right and wrong!  Jack Dexter ran very, very flat but so did market rivals Tropics and Morning Line fancy Maureen.  It was left to the two outsiders of the field to fight it out and Dinkum Diamond led from pillar to post to land the prize ahead of Captain Ramius.  It will be interesting to see how the form of this race works out in the forthcoming season.

If Jack Dexter was a letdown then Shea Shea was a soul-destroyer.  True he didn’t exactly fall out of the stalls but he wasn’t exactly off to a flyer either.  Not even a horse of his stature can go from last to first when the pace being set up front is truly phenomenal.  In the end he did well to finish as close as he did but no one was catching the winner.  I was very impressed with the winner Amber Sky though.  Three races down and no return.  Would things get any better?

In a simple word yes!  I love Brae Hill as much as he loves Doncaster.  What a horse, what a ride and the 8 year old dug deep when it really mattered.  As a bonus, Farlow grabbed some place money in 3^rd @ 14/1 and he is one to follow this season seeing as this was his first crack at 1 mile.  With a 10/1 winner in the bag I can afford to relax a little and really enjoy the rest of the racing.  Just as well really as the Lincoln was a big disappointment with One More Word failing to make it into the stalls, Tres Corons never featuring and Gabrials Kaka folding tamely.  I think Tullius was one to take out of the race and I’ve got him down as one to follow this season.  That was it for the domestic action and a bit of a wait until the Sheema Classic in Meydan, just long enough to see my football accumulator go down the pan.

Even though he only finished second, I think Cirrus Des Aigles was one of my better bets on the day.  Dismissed out of hand on the Morning Line, I thought he ran an absolute blinder sent off at 9/1.  He obviously failed to live up to expectations last season but he still ran some good races and showed in the Sheema Classic he retains all his ability.  The winner, Japanese superstar Gentildonna was a class apart and won a shade cosily.  Magician never threatened and the best horse clearly won the race.

I had already backed Red Cadeaux for the Dubai World Cup at 25/1 and decided to have a couple of quid each way on Ron The Greek at 30s on Betfair (and 7s to place in the top three), only to watch him drift out into the 40s.  I never quite know what to make of it when that happens, sometimes I chuck a couple extra on at the bigger price but I decided instead that it was a sign he was friendless on the exchanges.  Neither horse was ever going to win once African Story and Mukhadram kicked clear and the day’s betting ended rather tamely.  All in all I ended up a few quid in front thanks entirely to Brae Hill and Farlow!  I’ll be back later next week with my selections and thoughts for all 3 days of the Aintree meeting, including the big one itself the Grand National.

Nick Hardman gives us his thoughts for the first meeting of the flat season:

Some fantastic racing action on Saturday as the UK flat season kicks off with the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster.  As if that wasn’t enough, we also have the world’s richest race meeting in the Dubai World Cup.  I’ll be giving you my thoughts on the top races from these meetings together with a list of my fancies who will be burdened no doubt by carrying my wagers.

First up is the Doncaster Mile at 2.05pm and just 9 entries are set to go to post as I write this.  I think the 4 at the top of the market all have a chance of winning but at 2/1, 11/4, 5/1 and 7/1 there is not much too choose between them.  Marco Botti has had 3 winners from his last 9 runners at this meeting and Guest Of Honour @5/1 could be worth a bet but I will give this one a swerve as in truth I’d be guessing rather than using my better judgement.

The Cammidge Trophy at 2.45pm could well go the way of Jack Dexter and the softer the better for him.  He shoulders a 5lb penalty in an attempt to gain back-to-back victories in this event but I think he is a class act and rarely runs a bad race.  There is not much juice in the price @9/4 but I am happy to take that with William Hill offering 2^nd place refunds on all C4 races.

On to the Spring Mile considered the consolation race for those horses that did not make the cut for the Lincoln.  With 22 runners I will be backing 3 against the field.  Richard Fahey has a great record at this meeting with 40% of his handicap runners either winning or making the frame.  He saddles 2 here and I want them both on side.  First up is Brae Hill, a horse who won the Lincoln in 2012 and was 3^rd in 2013.  The best time to catch him is early season and with course, distance and going all no problem then I have taken the 10/1.  Fahey’s other runner is Farlow who is stepping up to a mile for the first time.  He signed off 2013 with a good 5^th on soft in the Ayr Bronze Cup.  He is an interesting runner and worth a couple of quid each-way @14/1.  Finally we have Global Village who was runner up to Levitate in the Lincoln last year.  He goes well fresh and is suited by the hustle and bustle of a big handicap field.  I have taken the early 12/1 and all three bets have been placed with best odds guaranteed bookmakers.

On to the main event and pre-race favourite Captain Cat is doubtful due to the soft going.  I have read up on some trends and in a race as competitive as this I have used those to pick some likely sorts.  First off I want a horse rated in the 90s but that only whittles the field down to 17.  Second, I’m going for the age angle and focussing on 4 and 5 year old horses who account for 75% of the winners since 1980.  From those making the cut I fancy 2 who I will be backing.  For the win only it will be Richard Fahey’s Gabrials Kaka.  There’s a lot to like about this horse. He is a 4 year old carrying less than 9 stone, is saddled by a trainer with a great record in this race and he actually has form over further than 1 mile which could be an asset if the ground gets even softer.  At a bigger price Charlie Hills’ One Word More has bags of potential and fits the age and weight trend nicely.  One that doesn’t is Tres Coronas who is a 7 year old.  However, he seemed to take a huge leap forward last year and finished 3^rd in last year’s Cambridgeshire and 3^rd in the John Smith’s Cup.  Interestingly, this horse is stepping down in trip having raced predominantly at 10 furlongs for the past few years.  At 20/1 he is worth a speculative punt as his stamina may see him pick off some weary finishers and grab a bit of place money.

I can’t let the Meydan World Cup night pass without having a few bets to small stakes.  This is always difficult as it is an international event so collateral form is thin on the ground and we have horses racing on the artificial tapeta surface, some for the first time.  Four of the races are on the turf course and the going will most likely be pretty fast!  These will be fun bets more than anything just to give the viewing some additional spice.  I’m going to give the Godolphin Mile a swerve and go straight to the Dubai Gold Cup and the highly unoriginal selection is Cavalryman @5/2.  Last year’s winner loves Meydan and looks sure to make a bold bid to retain his crown.  His form figures at Meydan in the last 2 years read 2311 and I’m sure he will be there or thereabouts.  The UAE Derby is another one I will by-pass as the top two take a chunk of the market at 2/1 and 3/1 and I don’t know enough about the other runners to really be optimistic with an each-way play.

Next up is the Al Quoz Sprint and I’m backing trail-blazing favourite Shea Shea to win.  Apparently he is as good as ever this season and with C&D form he gets the nod over market rival Amber Sky.  I will sit out the Dubai Golden Shaheen and the Dubai Duty Free and have a punt on the penultimate race, the Dubai Sheema Classic which features a cast of stars including Magician, Cirrus Des Aigles, Gentildonna, Dunaden and Mount Athos.  I do fancy Magician’s chances and at 3/1 I have been tempted to have a nibble.  Call me mad but I’m also going to have a few quid on Cirrus Des Aigles.  Clearly he only showed his talent in snatches last season, but he had previously given Frankel a real good race in his swansong at Ascot’s Champions Day meeting in 2012.  That form and his second to Farrh in the same race last year would give him every chance here.  At 15/2 it’s another nibble for me.

Finally on to the world’s richest race, the Dubai World Cup.  This is no-brainer for me.  Red Cadeaux @25/1.  I love this unsung hero who has amassed over £4 million of prize money.  Second in this last year, second in the Melbourne Cup, this globe-trotter has multiple placed finishes in Group races all around the world.  What is there not to like?

So there you go and below are a list of my fancies this weekend.  As ever, if you are having a bet yourself then all the best and be lucky!

Doncaster 2.40pm – Jack Dexter @9/4

Doncaster 3.15pm – Brae Hill @10/1, Global Village @12/1 and Farlow @14/1 (all each-way)

Doncaster 3.50pm – Gabrials Kaka 8/1 (win only), One Word More @14/1 and Tres Coronas @20/1 each-way

Meydan 1.45pm – Cavalryman @5/2

Meydan 3.03pm – Shea Shea @11/8

Meydan 5.17pm – Magician @3/1 and Cirrus Des Aigles @15/2

Meydan 6.05pm – Red Cadeaux @25/1 (each-way)

Well that’s it folks and another festival is over.  The final day was exciting but a tad disappointing from a betting perspective.  As is required by tradition, 6 of us descended on the pub right next door to our local Betfred to watch the racing and sink a few pints.  Included in this rowdy bunch were some notable attendees who have graced the pages of my weekly diary in the past.  First up we had Bryn and Steve from levelstakestips.com (LST).  Two of the canniest punters I know, both are willing to put their money where their mouth is as tipsters on their website – and they do it for free with a huge amount of success.  In stark contrast we have my boss Johnny L or Johnny “Hindsight” as we like to call him.  John also has an opinion, but it normally involves telling us our tips and selections are woeful after they have lost.  We also had the conclusion of our annual Cheltenham Challenge where 9 of us pop of tenner in the pot and pick a selection for every race of the festival.  Points are awarded at SP for a winner, 1/2 SP for a second place horse and 1/3 SP for a third place finisher.  The pot is then split between the top three tipsters – £50, £20 and £10.  This makes John uncomfortable as he now has to have an opinion before the event.

I came into Day 4 nicely ahead after a good Day 2 and Day 3.  In fact I placed all my bets for Gold Cup day the night before the racing, knowing I would just about end up all square even if I failed to have any winners on the Friday.  First up was the Triumph Hurdle and my selection Broughton was thoroughly disappointing as he travelled well and then found nothing when asked to pick up, eventually finishing 8^th.  In the next, Cheltenian was pulled up but Flaxen Flare plugged on for a never nearer 5^th and an each-way pay out at 20/1.  Steve from LST had had a meaty bet on Montbazon @25/1 each-way.  And when I say meaty I mean £200 each-way!  He had also nipped to Betfred and had a “cheeky” £50 each-way on Diakali @25/1 and he duly collected as both horses placed.

In the Albert Bartlett, my each-way picks Deputy Dan and Champagne West ran absolute blinders to finish 2^nd and 4^th respectively @16/1 and, although Deputy Dan’s tank was empty after jumping the final flight, he landed a nice bit of place money.  The well-backed Kings Palace fell at the last when already beaten.  Bryn and Steve had both backed Apache Jack @33/1 but not one of us had considered Very Wood, the eventual 33/1 winner.

And so to the Gold Cup.  We had all backed Bobs Worth as though he couldn’t lose.  Some of the lads had ploughed in at 2/1 and we were all fairly confident.  The race was a real trends buster with the first three home having SP’s of 20/1, 16/1 and 14/1.  Steve of course had tipped up Lord Windermere on the LST website @40/1 and had also had a few each-way on him.  I must admit that I never even considered Lord Windermere.  In fact I dismissed him outright.  Steve made the very simple observation that he won last year’s RSA Chase and winners of that race have a good record in the Gold Cup.  Sometimes it pays not to over-analyse these things.

On the subject of race analysis, I wrote on Thursday evening that only 2 horses aged 11 or older had won the Foxhunters Chase.  The first three home this year were aged 9, 10 and 9.  I just happened to have backed the wrong youngster as Divine Intavention, who was travelling nicely, blundered 4 out before unseating at the next.

With 2 races to go and the alcohol starting to have an effect, I was hopeful of a big priced winner to round off a really enjoyable festival.  I had backed Une Artiste and The Skyfarmer at big prices each-way to 5 places in the Martin Pipe.  Neither really featured and finished 8^th and a 16^th respectively and it was all down to the lucky last.

There was no fairy-tale ending as an already beaten Oiseau De Nuit fell 2 out.  French Opera did grab me some place money with a never nearer 5^th and the best odds guaranteed meant it paid out @33/1.  However I did think at one point that I would go out on a high as Anquetta (sent off at 50/1) looked to have every chance until a mistake 2 out (the same fence that saw Oiseau De Nuit part company with his rider) saw him lose his place and he folded tamely to finish 10^th.  So that was it and we were left to play a bit of pool and darts for spare change before making our way home.

For the record, Johnny Hindsight had no winners and no placed horses on the day.  To be fair though, like me, he had had a good opening 3 days and so he was playing with the bookies money on the final day.  But that did not stop us taking the mickey mercilessly.  Steve won the Cheltenham Challenge with a huge 116 points thanks mainly to 33/1 winner Hawk High, the aforementioned Lord Windermere @20/1 and a few more big priced placers.  Another £50 to add to the already bulging wad of cash he was about to collect from Betfred on our walk home.

And that’s it folks.  All in all a decent festival.  Just the 4 winners but a fair bit of place money and a few second place refunds to boot.  Roll on the next 12 months until we can do it all again!!!

I have managed to get through the first 3 days of the festival relatively unscathed and nicely ahead thanks to a cracking third day.  Here’s how Day 3 selections fared.  Felix Younger was a tad disappointing and finished a distant fourth in the JLT.  Fingal Bay and Jetson more than made up for it in a cracking renewal of the Pertemps.  Fingal Bay got the decision by a nose and a nice 7/1 payout.  Jetson finished 5^th but unfortunately I had been greedy and taken 16/1, 4 places instead of the widely available 14’s and 5 places.  Lesson learned (well, maybe!)   Dynaste was superbly produced late by Tom Scu to give us our 4^th winner of the festival @4/1.  In the World Hurdle it was a second place refund on Annie Power and a bit of each-way money for At Fishers Cross.  More place money followed in the Byrne Group Plate with Johns Spirit a never nearer 4^th.  No joy in the last as Cause Of Causes opts to run through the final fence instead of jumping it and, despite rallying like a train, had to settle for second place.

And on to my selections for the final day.  We open with the Triumph Hurdle.  Eight of the last nine winners came from the top 4 in the betting with only Countrywide Flame bucking that trend @33/1 in 2012.  One I’ve backed at the top end of the betting is the ex-Mark Johnston trained Broughton @8/1.  He was a decent, tough flat horse and is now trained by John Ferguson.  A head second on his hurdling debut in a Grade 2, he then went on to win a Listed hurdle race.  After just two runs over obstacles he is open to bags of improvement and will be fine on better ground.  So, Broughton @8/1 each-way it is for me.

On to the County Hurdle and more scope for a bigger priced selection with the winners of this race returning at 10/1, 20/1, 10/1, 20/1, 20/1, 50/1 and 12/1 in the last 7 renewals.  This is as tough as it gets.  Cheltenian @10/1 each-way should be there or thereabouts and, with most firms paying 5 places, he is my selection from the top of the market.  Another one who looks sure to run his race is last years Fed Winter winner Flaxen Flare @20/1 and again I’ve backed him each-way, again to 5 places.

Next up is the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle won last year by At Fishers Cross.  Not a bad race for favourite backers with 4 obliging in the last 4 years.  This year’s favourite is Briar Hill, the Champion Bumper winner from 2013 and I’m prepared to take him on.  OK, he is 3 from 3 but his last two wins were in a 3-runner and a 2 runner race and while he could bolt-up here in a canter I’d rather look for an each-way play at a bigger price.  To be honest Kings Palace @4/1 could be an each-way bet to nothing having form figures of 111 this year, all on good ground and who stays further than 3 miles (won over 3m 1 ½ furlongs).  He also has 2 wins at Cheltenham to his name and I’ve taken the 4/1 (win only).  However, I have also had an each-way squeak on Deputy Dan @16/1.  His form ties in closely with Kings Palace and he has beaten Rathvinden this season (OK, Rathvinden fell but a win is a win) who went on to finish 3^rd in the Supreme Novice.  In that same race he beat Splash Of Ginge by 16 lengths, who then went on to win the Betfair Hurdle (and then flopped in the Supreme Novice).  Champange West’s form also ties in as he has a 1 length victory over Deputy Dan and has won his last 3.  He is also 16/1.  However, caution is advised as both Deputy Dan and Champagne Fever have done their winning in the mud and are both stepping up in trip (3 furlongs and 2 furlongs respectively)  With that in mind I’ll just be having a couple of quid each-way more out of curiosity than anything else.

On to the Gold Cup and I just don’t think this renewal is as exciting as recent ones.  It’s hard to look past Bobs Worth and this is another race where favourites have excelled, winning 7 of the last 11.  In fact the last 13 winners have all come from the top 3 in the betting.  That does not mean we cannot back a couple though and I remember Mon Mome trotting up the hill to finish 3^rd @50/1 in 2010.  The interesting one from that angle is Teaforthree who won the 4 mile Novice Chase here in 2012.  Clearly he is best at further, having placed in last years’ Grand National.  However, if we have one or two fallers or an unseated rider here and there, or they go at too frantic a pace from the get-go, he could possibly come late and pick off a few stragglers up the hill and nick 3^rd spot.  That’s the theory.  And at 50/1 it’s worth testing to bare minimum stakes!  So for me it is Bobs Worth @15/8 and Teaforthree @50/1 each-way.  One from the top and one from the bottom, so to speak.

Next up is the Foxhunters Chase and here is an interesting statistic for you that I picked up on the ATR Cheltenham microsite.  Horses aged 11 or older have won just twice in 23 renewals despite making up over 50% of the participants.  A good place to start, but that still leaves 16 runners.  I don’t have much of an opinion on this race so I’m going to back Divine Intavention @20/1 each-way with Sportingbet offering 4 places.

The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle race is only in its 6^th renewal so not much in the way of trends to look at.  For want of spending too much time over this race I have had a couple each-way in Une Artiste @25/1 and Skyfarmer @20/1 as both look overpriced.  Une Artiste has festival winning form in a big field handicap and, although not exactly ripping up trees, there are probably worse 25/1 shots out there.  Skyfarmer has smart form (neck second to Red Sherlock on debut) and all 4 wins have been on good ground.  His latest flop was on heavy and with 888sport paying 5 places @20/1 I’ve got involved.

In the final race of the meeting, the Grand Annual Chase I am going to back four.  Yes four!  Two sentimental bets and another two highly speculative ones.  I have already backed Oiseau De Nuit @25/1 each-way.  It’s a bet with the heart rather than the head as he has been one of my favourite horses over the years and on many occasions he has carried my each-way money.  At 12 years of age it will be momentous should be win.  I doubt he will but I always get a run for my money with him and I am happy to back him again even though I have kept stakes to a minimum.  I’ve also backed top weight French Opera @25/1.  This is another horse that has made me a few quid over the years and this is another bet with the heart.  He loves it around here, has good festival form and might make the frame at a decent price.

Now, after backing the top two weights I can tell you that no horse has won carrying more than 11 stone in the last 14 renewals (and I’ve just backed two at 11st 12lb and 11st 11lb!!!).  So in addition, I will take two carrying under 11st.  First is Nicky Henderson’s Anquetta @33/1.  His recent form is forgettable and I’m just hoping it returns out of nowhere.  He last won off a mark of 137 and he’s in here off 136 with Sam Whaley-Cohen’s 3lb claim.  A speculative bet to say the least.  Finally, I have had a nibble on Shooters Wood @33/1 who also has no recent form but has won 3 times at Cheltenham from 5 visits.  Another speculative punt.  In fact there is a good chance all 4 will be pulled up but you just never know and hopefully one can squeeze out a bit of place money.

Nick’s Day 4 Selections:

1.30 Broughton @8/1 each-way

2.05 Cheltenian @10/1 and Flaxen Flare @20/1 both each-way (5 places)

2.40 Kings Palace @4/1 win only and Deputy Dan @16/1 & Champagne West @16/1 both each-way

3.20 Bobs Worth @15/8 & Teaforthree @50/1 each-way

4.00 Divine Intavention @16/1 each-way (4 places)

4.40 Une Artiste @25/1 each-way (5 places) & Skyfarmer @20/1 (5 places)

5.15 Oiseau De Nuit @25/1 & French Opera @25/1 (both each-way 5 places) and Anquetta @33/1 & Shooters Wood @33/1 (both each-way 4 places)

The final day of the competition is here and the Welsh National is the final obstacle.

In the race to the prizes NickH and Ritz74 have pulled slightly clear of a bunch in 2nd but there really is everything to play for with just just 13 points covering the top 23 entrants. Literally, anyone could win this.

Good luck to all

An exciting start to the competition last saturday with the spoils going to Reve de Sivola – as predicted by the majority of competition entrants. As a result we have a jostling throng at the head of affairs with a bunching group in behind.

Good luck to everybody!