Today we have a post from Ben Aitken of Narrowing the Field Fame. Ben’s just set up a new blog focussing on the flat – and in particular on Badly Drawn Horses. Take it away Ben!
Badly Drawn Horse: Warrior looks ready to Wake up…
3:40 Beverley (06-07-13) – Coachman Caravans Handicap (Class 4) 5f (15 ran)
Hi racing fans
Some of you may know me from my original racing site Narrowing The Field (NTF). NTF is now primarily a National Hunt site and for my Flat analysis I have set up a new site; www.badlydrawnhorse.com.
Badly Drawn Horse specialises in analysing straight track races and looks for horses that ran well, without winning, from a poor draw. This method often uncovers horses that are overlooked by the generally betting public and as such often go off at healthy odds when they next appear on the track. Recent winners have included York Glory at Ascot and Doctor Parkes at Sandown.
Although the main bulk of my analysis looks at straight track races there are instances when it pays to look at sprint races that are run round a bend or with a slight kink in the track.
Indeed it is a sprint race run round a kink/bend that I’m going to analyse and exclusively share with you today here on Make Your Betting Pay….
Race in focus: 3.40 Beverley (06-07-2013): Coachman Caravans Handicap – 5f, Class 4 (15 ran)
How the race played out…
As is generally the case at Beverley over the 5f trip the race played to the hands of those drawn in the low boxes. LENNY BEE broke well from the 1 box and he was in the firing line for most of the contest. CHINA EXCELS also broke well and his jockey Noel Garbutt switched him right across to the far side to try and put him at the front of affairs. It is a difficult box to front-run from, however, and the effort of getting across and then staying in the lead probably led to him finishing back in 11th. As the pace map above confirms for us it was the low numbers that fared best here and it was a definite advantage to be drawn in the bottom half.
The end result…
The winner ZIGGY LEE was drawn in a prime spot (stall 2) and took full advantage of this, winning a shade cosily in the end. His jockey’s claim took him down to a handy mark and 5f on Good to Firm was just right for him. He may find his new mark of 86 a bit lofty although if they keep the young claimer on board he could well be of interest. Second placed FLASH CITY was another who was ideally drawn but he faded in the final few yards and remains one that is hard to win with. I would imagine a less testing sprint track would be the best option for him.
Third home, WAKING WARRIOR, is the most interesting of the first few home. He was the best finisher of those drawn in double figures, an area that is very difficult to win from over Beverley’s sprint track. Jockey Kevin Scott tried to switch him behind runners early to get cover but also sensibly didn’t stick him right on the far rail, allowing him the option of coming wide in the home-straight and avoiding any traffic problems late on. Out wide is a difficult area to win from here so to be only beaten just over a length is a fine effort. It should also be noted that of the last 105 horses to come from the 11 box over Beverley’s 5f trip only 3 (yes 3!) have won; another reason for us to mark up his run. Fourth placed FITZ FLYER met a bit of trouble in running and although he is on a handy enough looking mark we should remember he is only 2 wins from 42 career starts. Fifth placed LENNY BEE had the prime draw in the 1 stall to be right in the firing line and he was right there for most of the contest before his petrol tank petered to empty in the final few yards. There is no doubt he is handicapped to win but he is on a very long losing streak of 24 runs.
Badly Drawn Horse(s) to follow…
WAKING WARRIOR (3rd) (K Ryan)
Considering he had the nightmare draw in stall 11 this was a fine effort indeed. It was a smart ride from young Kevin Scott and he gave his mount every chance of getting competitive.
The main aspect for me here was how well he ran from that poor draw, stall 11 over Beverley’s 5f trip really is a terrible spot to be in but one feels he could have won this race with an extra half furlong or so to aim at. I actually have the feeling that 6 furlongs is the area we want to see this 5yo running over and that may be where we eventually see him break his turf duck.
He is currently sitting on a handicap mark of 76 and there is every reason to believe that is a mark he can strike from, especially if Kevin Ryan keeps using claimers on him.
He has actually now ran well from a poor draw on his last 2 runs and given a good draw I can see him breaking that turf duck sooner rather than later.
Conditions – I think he should be able to strike over 5 furlongs but the way he finishes out his races makes me think that ‘ideally’ we want him racing over 6f. A testing 5f like Beverley would suit him although we obviously want to see him with a much better draw. Apart from that I think he is fairly adaptable in his grade (at class 4 or below level) and providing he gets the rub of the green with regards to the draw I think he can break his turf duck soon; he is running into a solid bit of form.
WAKING WARRIOR now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool (horse tracker in other words) and I will post on the BADLY DRAWN HORSE Blog when he is due to run next.
If you want more of this type of analysis then please visit my Blog over at Badly Drawn Horse.