Bellator 215 & 216 / UFC on ESPN, Phoenix, Arizona 15th, 16th, 17th Feb

A crammed weekend of action with two Bellator events followed by a big fight night in Phoenix from the UFC. With 34 fights across the 3 events, I’ve been very busy these last couple of days getting my head around where my money should be going. Here’s what I decided.

Matt Mitrione v Sergei Kharitonov

A heavyweight match up for the main event of Bellator 215 and to be honest, it’s the only half way interesting fight on the entire card.

The bookies make this a pick-em fight with both men priced at 1.91 generally. However, I don’t see it quite that way.

Both men have weaknesses but Mitrione is an over-rated fighter in my opinion. Quick to tap and possessing no more than a basic ground game, he just doesn’t strike me as a fighter with a great deal of heart. He was comprehensively beaten by Ryan Bader in his last outing and was gifted a decision against Roy Nelson in the one before that.

However, he’s quick and he hits hard so he may pull this out of the bag. At the price though, I’m going to be siding with the big Russian.

Advice: 1 point win Sergei Kharitonov @1.91 Generally

Roy Nelson v Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic

Another heavyweight match up here with both men well into their 40’s and sliding fast towards retirement.

I have to admit to being surprised that Cro Cop is quite such a warm favourite even taking into account the winning streak he has been on. He’s won his last 9 but it’s been a can crushing exercise against …ahem… let’s say, not the greatest competition in the world.

In their last meeting, in 2011, Nelson walked away with a 3rd round TKO victory and, although he’s been on a bit of a slide over the last two or three years I still struggle to see him as big as 7/4 to win this.

Advice: 1 point Win Roy Nelson @ 2.75 Bet365, Betfred, Betway

Scott Holtzman v Nik Lentz

A straight value call in this one.

Nik Lentz is a tough out for anybody in the division and he shouldn’t be priced at 6/4 here. I don’t know a great deal about Scott Holtzman but his record would indicate he’s a solid mid tier fighter who has lost when he’s tried to step up to the next level.

it’ strikes me as somewhat of a no brainer to oppose Holtzman at 2/1 on here.

Advice: 1pt win Nik Lentz @ 2.5 generally.

I’ll also put the 3 above in a 0.25 point trixie

Aside from those , while I ‘d love to get involved in the other two main events (Page v Daley/Ngannou v Velasquez) I think both fights have been priced about right so I’ll take a watching brief.

If you fancied a short priced multi, you could do worse than combine Kron Gracie, Vitaly Minakov and Vicente Luque into a treble that pays just over even money. It would be a major upset to see any of them turned over.

Summary:

Advice: 1 point win Sergei Kharitonov @ 1.91 Generally

Advice: 1 point win Roy Nelson @ 2.75 Bet365, Betfred, Betway

Advice: 1pt win Nik Lentz @ 2.5 generally.

Advice: Above 3 in a 0.25 point trixie

That’s about it from me so have a great weekend and be lucky

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