Back to Basics – Part 2

Firstly today, we have the 2nd part of Nick Hardman’s very well received look at some true betting fundamentals:

THE KEY TO SUCCESSFUL BETTING

Think Long Term (you would be surprised)

People bet for many different reasons. These include the feeling of euphoria after picking a winner (especially at a big price), the added excitement of watching a sporting event with some of your “hard-earned” wagered on it, and, ultimately, with the desire to make money. Less than 1% of all punters actually achieve the latter, yet making money is why 99% of us bet in the first place.

If you are serious about making money then you need to develop that all important winning punters mentality as discussed previously. If you are serious about making money then you also need to think long term.

Nick Mordin wrote that it takes 10 years hard work to become an overnight sensation. A very true statement. Success is not achieved in the blink of an eye, it is built and accumulated gradually.

All of you will have had your inbox peppered with e-mails pushing the latest systems and tipping services. Services that are supposedly pulling in £1000s a week or £100,000s a year from the bookies and the betting exchanges.

Every one of them has a story to tell.

Every one of them promises to revolutionise the betting industry and give you wealth beyond your dreams.

Each and every one will tell you that you too could be pulling in £1000s a week after you click on “add to basket”.

Now, you don’t need me to tell you that 99% of these wonder systems and tipping services are a scam, or at best offer very little value.

Firstly, if it really was that easy to make money from betting then no one would work for a living.

Secondly, because we are all now betting for a living, the bookies would be out of business in weeks and then we would all have to go back to work anyway!

Furthermore, these systems and services claim to make huge profits to completely unrealistic stakes. People who can afford to bet with £100 or £200 level stakes and risk £400 -£500 a day just do not exist in the real world (at least not in my world anyway!). If they did, they would be buying horses, not betting on them.

You have to be realistic.

These system and service offers all look extremely attractive. They all offer almost instant financial reward for a small or modest outlay. I should know. I have bought and tried many, many systems and subscribed to many, many tipping services over the years. The results looked incredible, the testimonials looked great and everything seemed right.

I was wrong.

Fact – you cannot make that sort of second income from betting within minutes of clicking the “add to basket” button.

Yet, it is the promise of instant financial reward that reels us in. Sales pitches ask what could you do with an extra £500 a week or ask you if you want to have the financial freedom to give up work. It sells. You see cash, you see a host of opportunities. Now they have your attention with the £££ signs, you are then drawn into an emotional attachment on the back of the promise of rapid financial return. As described earlier, this emotional attachment means that you are unlikely to stick to the rules once your wonder system hits a losing run. You are more likely to bail out at the first sign of trouble and move on to the next all-conquering system.

Fact – if you want to make money from betting you have to think long term.

Take two theoretical systems.

One tells you that it is creaming £100s a day from the exchanges and is up over 200 points in the last month alone.

The other is a system that shows a steady profit of 50 points a year for the last 10 years.

Factor in your realistic betting bank and affordable stakes and which one appears to be the most rewarding?

Yes, you’re right – the system that is up 200 points. Even if you stake £10 a point then that puts you £2000 up in a month.

Wow!

That is more than most people earn from their normal jobs!

The other system has been plodding along at 50 points a year for 10 years. That’s £500 profit in a year to your £10 stakes. £500 in a year or just £10 a week!

That will not change your life at all. So you opt for the former system. You hit the “add to cart”, you now look forward to your £2000 a month.

It does not happen. Why?

Because these claims are false, these systems are a scam and instant reward does not happen unless you win the lottery.

Now let’s take a look at the least attractive system of the two.

Fifty points profit a year for 10 years. Results are proofed but this still this seems a waste of time. Like I said, viewed in the short term you see this as a system that will make roughly 1 point a week. Not exactly an exciting proposition. However, let’s look at this system from a long term perspective.

You purchase the system and it delivers on its unspectacular promise of 50 points in its first year. You started with a 50 point bank of £500, equating to £10 per point. At the end of the first year your profit is 50 points which equates to £500 (50 x £10). Your bank now stands at £1000 (£500 initial bank + £500 profit).

This £500 profit probably won’t change your life so keep it in and recalculate your bank. Divide your new bank (£1000) by 50 points to give you your new stake (£20). You repeat the process for the second year and win another 50 points at your revised stake. Your profit for year two is a still-less-than-spectacular £1000 (50 x £20). Your bank now stands at £2000 (£1000 at the end of year one + £1000 profit from year two).

OK, now let’s see what happens when you repeat this process. Look at the table below to see how a £500 bank grows over the coming years by adopting this long term strategy.

 

Year Stake (Bank/50) Profit (50 points) Total
0 N/A N/A £500
1 £10 £500 £1000
2 £20 £1000 £2000
3 £40 £2000 £4000
4 £80 £4000 £8000
5 £160 £8000 £16000
6 £320 £16000 £32000

 

You can see from the above table that a system that consistently wins 50 points a year can double your bank annually when you recalculate your stakes at the end of the year. In just 6 years, a starting bank of £500 and initial stakes of £10 has been turned into £32000.

Now for a reality check. In theory, this can continue exponentially as long as your system is making you 50 points a year. However, in reality what limits the growth of your bank is the liquidity of the markets on the exchanges and whether or not your bookmaker will lay at your required stakes (on-line bookmakers will close accounts if you are taking them for too much money). Look at the stakes for year 6 (£320). If you are backing or laying short priced favourites on the exchanges then there is a good chance all of your stake will be matched. If you are backing and laying bigger priced horses then the volume of money may not be available to match your stake.

Always take this into consideration when looking at the sales page of systems that tell you can be earning £1000s every month. This is especially true for laying systems that target horses at higher odds. It will be hard for many people to get matched at odds of 15.0 when laying to the “recommended” £100 stakes (do you really want to be risking £1400 on one bet anyway?!!!).

This is powerful stuff, yet only those that think long term can realise these sorts of profit. A system advertising 50 points profit a year and a starting bank of £500 is not, at first sight, an attractive proposition. This is because we only think about short term, almost immediate financial reward. When you look at this system you probably look at 50 points at £5 or £10 stakes, giving you a return after 12 months of £250 to £500.

That is where most of us (including myself many times in the past) fall down. Look at a 50 point a year system from a long term perspective and it looks altogether a very different proposition.

So, remember, think long term not short term if you are serious about making your betting pay.

**************************

Thanks Nick, wise words indeed.

Words, in fact that have put me in mind of the Daily Pro bets.

Now, because I have been using the selections method behind thos ebets for many years now, I have not the slightest doubt that they will turn a very decent profit when look ed at over the long term.

However, anybody taking the short term view would look at the last few of weeks and think I must be mad!

Since 14-05-13 we have (somehow!) managed to have 15 consecutive losers baking at an average price of 5/2!

Nigh on impossible to do you would have thought even if you were pinsticking but when you look a little more closely you see that in  those 15 bets there have been 10 (count them) seconds – most of which traded long odds on in running and including one beaten a nose that traded at 1.01 in running.

Only if you are able to stomach variance (or ‘bad luck’) like that will you be able to make money from betting anybody taking the short term view would have thrown in the towel long ago.

However, those who can take the long term view, will find that there is a long term,viable edge on the selections and that after a (horrendously) bad run, as sure as eggs are eggs, there will follow an exceptionally good run!

Have a great weekend

Kieran

PS I won’t be looking anywhere beyond the front 2 in the betting for the Derby tomorrow.

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