A couple of things today….
Firstly, I wrote this article sometime ago now for the Daily Punt website but I’ve never managed to put it up on Make Your Betting Pay before now.
It’s well worth a read – a very simple way to improve your punting profits!
You Have to Haggle
A successful punter should always be looking for ways to improve his margins – in the same way that a successful business man will always be looking for ways to cut his overhead and improve his bottom line.
The advent of betting exchanges changed the face of betting forever and in many ways, none more so than in the facility it gives us to ask for a price rather than just accept what we are being offered.
I never cease to be amazed when I see a supposed shrewdie simply taking a price at the money on Betfair. If they were buying a second hand car, would they immediately stump up the asking price? No, they would make a prolonged and concerted effort to secure a discount. So why will they simply accept the price when placing a bet?
Always, always, always ask for a price.
Let’s look at a worked example to see just how much of a difference asking for a price can make:
You have a method that has a 30% strike rate and the selections go off at an average price of 4.0. We’ll ignore commission for the sake of simplicity (and because we all pay varying percentages)
Over 100 bets you would see the following returns:
70 points lost on the losing bets
120 points returned, including stakes, on the winning bets
Equates to a net profit of 20 points at 20% ROI
Now, over the same series of bets, by successfully asking for a price of 4.2, you would see the following net results:
70 points lost on the losing bets
126 points returned, including stakes, on the winning bets
Equates to a net profit of 26 points at an ROI of 26%
The same number of bets, the same number of winners but returning 30% more profit.
Now, if you were to have 2000 of those bets a year you’re looking at an extra 120 points clear profit
At £50 a point that’s £6,000
Simply for asking for a price two ticks above the money.
Some bettors are concerned about not getting matched. This is unlikely.
If you ask for your price in the morning, the chances of getting matched at 2 ticks from the money are exceptionally high. If you’re not matched by 10 minutes before the race – you just take a view as to whether you wish to take the price being offered or let it run.
All of these issues smooth themselves out over a large number of bets, so don’t let concerns about missing a winner make you take the offered price when there is a chance to secure greater value.
Remember, those couple of ticks extra, for almost no extra effort, could easily be the difference between a profit and a loss over the course of a year!
Trainer Track Stats
I’m sure many readers are already avid followers of Gavin Priestley and his Trainer Track Stats. It’s been running for a long time now and produces profits year after year after year.
A bit of good news! Gavin will be launching the full version of Trainer Track Stats for the 2012-2013 NH season at the end of next week and as a gesture of goodwill he’s decided to give away the All Weather version completely free. Gavin normally sells this for £29 so don’t miss out!
TTS All Weather will be available for download from Monday and I will send an email then showing you where it can be downloaded from.
That’s all from me folks
Have a great weekend